big blowup often marks the beginning of end for a crisis

can't remember from where I read this line,

overheated heads always make a market non operable, therefore the sound of bubble bursting, which leads to a more rational and balanced view on asset allocation, should really be welcomed by people prepared with long term views and ready toolsets,

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to invest in real estate is, in essence, to invest in the local economy. Population growth and income growth leads to demand growth, if there is a limit on the supply side, then price increases.

therefore the secret in RE, as is in any other asset, to be able to spot an uptrend and ride that uptrend. The leverage side comes from the second.

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the core of the current downturn, and the fundamental change of US economy, is how it would handle the diminished gain of productivity. Or, in the other way, how it handle greatly increased productivity gain from other countries. The internet has been a shockingly powerful equalizer in terms of brain power. This is on top of the loss of physical goods manufacturing, which has been assumed as a sacrifice in exchange for the dominance in brain
economy. How would US adjust if the expected dominance in the upper link of the food chain doesn't materialize, or not materialized as much?

Protectionism would probably only buy time, not buying a solution. Ponzi schemes, even in a as grand scale as flipping RE, can only go so far. At the end, the solution would have to be on that US, or in general western countries, would be able to produce more values.

history has always been on US side in time of a crisis, a transformation. There is no base to bet against that. But great uncertainties remain from now to the day of another phoenix rising.

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meanwhile in the mid term, I suspect that the shift to upstream and downstream of manufacturing, namely natural resource and transportation distribution, will continue.

Manufacturing, if you think about it, is the art of transformation natural occurrence into a useful goods. This used to be the crown jewel of capitalistic structure, and now obviously the developed nations has gradually lose the control of it. Short term it has been devaluing for a while, but I suspect that, with the growing scale of manufacturing base in emerging countries, the battle for the right to price such transformation art remain out there.

to make a long story short, imho for mid term one should remain bullish on resource rich countries and up and coming manufacturing powers such as China, or even
Viet Nam.

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now that it's been almost all commonly agreed opinion here that even long term bulls should pay attention to short term downturns, and my primary reason to write here has ceded its usefulness,

so long and all the best wishes,