Great China Leap (4), Scary Numbers
(2006-12-29 14:45:36)
下一个
It's nothing short of breath taking to describe the progress that China has made,
I was to write a long list but then figured it's better to let everyone to fill the blanks for the question of "just how good is it?", since to 100 pair of eyes there must have 100 different angles.
Nothing can compare to the vast suburb in Americana yet, but for the citi-scape,
most of major Chinese cities are now more modern than comparable ones in US.
But it's even more scary to think what's to come next,
1, let's first exam the capacity in the post-internet era on an individual base, profession to profession:
Ability:
A Chinese air hostess doing very much the same job as American hostess, a Chinese pilot the same as American but may have had less hours…for software engineering, 80% of average knowledge… let's just say on a gross average, a Chinese worker's professional knowledge and skill and experience is about 60%--80% of a US worker.
Productivity,
Productivity is defined as the actually output rate. In general, Chinese works work much harder, and the lower the knowledge chain, the bigger the difference. Chinese textile workers are probably 3 times more productive than American peers.
A typical US worker is more able, better educated, more seasoned and experienced, but we probably produce less, because we waste a lot of things on important things such as management meeting or web surfing.
2, look at the sum
China current have probably 500m to 700m works, US has probably 150m, which means from a development point of view, a Chinese year may as well be 5 US year.
If you really think about, that's about right. China now has half of US's highway infrastructure, mostly developed in the last 10 years.
3, development capacity: the extra capacity beyond maintenance
A more scary number is on what I'd called development capacity, that part that's beyond the maintenance and repair work. US has been in "consumer economy" for a long while, it requires a huge base for maintenance. As indicated in the crawling pace of 2% GDP growth, the delta, the increase, the change part of the society is very little.
On the other side, China grows beyond any economic measurement. This ratio is probably China 10, US 1, if not more.