正文
I have had a number of houses in both US and China, not to pretent to know everything but I thought I might offer some advices on this subject,
1) no matter where you live, get a house if you can. Life is more important than the numbers.
2) US house just had a big bubble, China is having a big bubble. Bubble, by itself, is not a bad thing. It's a wealth creating and transferring vehicle.
3) A lot of Chinese housing market is extremely hot. The unit price is quite high, I probably have mentioned that I have a developer friend, who said the engineering cost for a mid-rise is about 1100 RMB per sq meter.
But it doesn't mean there is no upside there. China has something very different than that in US: concentrated demand.
So as any asset class, its price is the result of demand and supply, plus expectation of future valuation.
My advice is that if you have extra money, and if you have parents in need of housing, by all means buy something. If you want to have something as investment, not a bad idea if the price is not too high or taking too much weight on your whole networth. But don't get overboard. Speculation in China real estate markte is almost suicidal.
4) Quit arguing if US house is better or Chinese one better. As always, people who have loud voice often are those who know just a little. In US, wood frame can probably go only to 4 level at most and many cities with dense population outlaw wood frame all together. High rises are all concrete and steel for weight-bearing parts(what else could it be?). Internel walls are mostly drywall, which has many engineering merits (light, easy to install, config and re-config, easy for wiring/plumbing etc etc) and is generally sufficient. Insulation is handled by the form/fiberglass between the walls (sometimes with brick/stone front etc).
Woodframe and drywall may not be the best in China's environment (sour rain etc) but I have seen such at some Shanghai's single family developments. This year at Beijing, I was told some newest buildings start to have this insulation layer too.
To simply say drywall is no good is almost silly. Why do you need big heavy concrete non-configable walls inside if they are not needed to bear the weight and if indoor air quality is well under control? Plus how do you prevent the little parcels from flying over into air if not covered? Go to China and visit a slightly aged building, say 5 years old, touch the wall on hall way and see if you fingers get white power... I read a news about a week ago that ShanDong just started a big drywall factory. I remember the first thing flashed over my mind was that some really smart people apparently saw this as a huge business breaking point, probably at the level of having vinyl window replacing steel frame window. Those are markets of billions.
Drywall + insulation, when it's appliable, is a hands-down engineering winner. I remember when I was a kid, I had those 5-pound heavy knitted sweater from my mom. I guess there is not really a choice if that is put next to the latest hi-tech fiber innerwear that's all over China now.
the truth is, this world is becoming more flat and things will be so common over the country lines that it's meaningless to dwell in a "me beat you" mentatlity. Be a winner, no matter where you choose.
all best
1) no matter where you live, get a house if you can. Life is more important than the numbers.
2) US house just had a big bubble, China is having a big bubble. Bubble, by itself, is not a bad thing. It's a wealth creating and transferring vehicle.
3) A lot of Chinese housing market is extremely hot. The unit price is quite high, I probably have mentioned that I have a developer friend, who said the engineering cost for a mid-rise is about 1100 RMB per sq meter.
But it doesn't mean there is no upside there. China has something very different than that in US: concentrated demand.
So as any asset class, its price is the result of demand and supply, plus expectation of future valuation.
My advice is that if you have extra money, and if you have parents in need of housing, by all means buy something. If you want to have something as investment, not a bad idea if the price is not too high or taking too much weight on your whole networth. But don't get overboard. Speculation in China real estate markte is almost suicidal.
4) Quit arguing if US house is better or Chinese one better. As always, people who have loud voice often are those who know just a little. In US, wood frame can probably go only to 4 level at most and many cities with dense population outlaw wood frame all together. High rises are all concrete and steel for weight-bearing parts(what else could it be?). Internel walls are mostly drywall, which has many engineering merits (light, easy to install, config and re-config, easy for wiring/plumbing etc etc) and is generally sufficient. Insulation is handled by the form/fiberglass between the walls (sometimes with brick/stone front etc).
Woodframe and drywall may not be the best in China's environment (sour rain etc) but I have seen such at some Shanghai's single family developments. This year at Beijing, I was told some newest buildings start to have this insulation layer too.
To simply say drywall is no good is almost silly. Why do you need big heavy concrete non-configable walls inside if they are not needed to bear the weight and if indoor air quality is well under control? Plus how do you prevent the little parcels from flying over into air if not covered? Go to China and visit a slightly aged building, say 5 years old, touch the wall on hall way and see if you fingers get white power... I read a news about a week ago that ShanDong just started a big drywall factory. I remember the first thing flashed over my mind was that some really smart people apparently saw this as a huge business breaking point, probably at the level of having vinyl window replacing steel frame window. Those are markets of billions.
Drywall + insulation, when it's appliable, is a hands-down engineering winner. I remember when I was a kid, I had those 5-pound heavy knitted sweater from my mom. I guess there is not really a choice if that is put next to the latest hi-tech fiber innerwear that's all over China now.
the truth is, this world is becoming more flat and things will be so common over the country lines that it's meaningless to dwell in a "me beat you" mentatlity. Be a winner, no matter where you choose.
all best
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