andwemaygetabouncesoon.Butwehaven\'tseenthebottomyet.Thetechnicalsofthemarketlookverypoor.Thiscorrectionmayturnintothebeginningofanewbearmarket.OnAug16,whensomeofthetechnicalindicatorsIwatchedreachedextremelybearishlevels,Iknewthebottomwasclose.Butthistime,themarketisstillseveralnastysell-offsawayfromthatlevel.Soralliesinthenextseveraldaysshouldbeusedasellingopportunity.
I\'mstillpositiveYTD.B...[阅读全文]
博文
(2007-11-19 21:57:32)
(2007-11-13 18:49:20)
I\'mverygladtoseethebleedingstoppedtoday.However,bothmystocksanddiversifiedmutualfundsgreatlyunderperformedthemajorindexesinthelasttwodays.Idon\'tviewthisasapositivesign.Ifwedon\'tseestrongeconomicdatainthenextseveraldays,theworryaboutarecessionwillcomebackandthesell-offmaycontinue.Sooncethemarketreboundstops,Iplantoraisemorecashbysellingmorestocks.[阅读全文]
(2007-11-12 18:06:54)
股市狂跌不止，本想见机再出来一些，可是越等掉得越多，前几天的strongstocks,突然变成了今天最弱的一群。现在只希望跌势能尽快扭转，thenwecansellintotherallies。
根据以往的历史，在最强势的股票受到打击之后，反弹往往就不远了。但愿历史还
一样重复。但是大家期望的yearendrally,可能要等到明年下半年了。这次跟八
月份不一样，Fed已经没有多少减息的余地了，一切得[阅读全文]
根据以往的历史，在最强势的股票受到打击之后，反弹往往就不远了。但愿历史还
一样重复。但是大家期望的yearendrally,可能要等到明年下半年了。这次跟八
月份不一样，Fed已经没有多少减息的余地了，一切得[阅读全文]
(2007-11-01 22:23:06)
HistoricalprecedentsmostlypointtoagoodperiodforstockinvestmentfromnowthroughtheendofApril.Howeverthedaytodayactioninthestockmarketalwayscarriesmoreweightinourefforttofigureoutthemarketdirectioninthemonthsahead.Whenmarkettops,volatilityalwaysincreases.Thetwosharpsell-offsinthelast10sessionsraiseawarningsign.Ifthesell-offcontinuestomorrow,Iwillturndefensiveandplantocloseallmymargins(I\'m15%inmargin)...[阅读全文]
(2007-10-25 20:12:52)
Afterrisingfor5weeksinarow,thestockmarketfoundenoughexecusestogetasharpsellofflastweek.Inthelastfoursessions,thebearstriedhardtodrivedownthemarket,butthebullshandledthechallengereallywell.Theybroughttheindexesbackupafterthebears\'everyattempt.WithMSFT\'sgreatearningsreportthisafternoon,andtheFed\'snearcertaincutoftheFedFundsrateby0.25%nextWednesday,thebullsmayfinallyforcethebearsintotheircavestomo...[阅读全文]
(2007-10-21 21:03:13)
Ihadbeenabulluntilabout11:00amFriday.Afterwinning5weeksinarow,Iwasexpectingapullback.Soupuntilthattime,Iwasstillbuying.Butthelopsidedsellinginthelast2hourschangedmyviewtocertainadegree.Thispullbacknolongerlookslikearegularpullbackinabullmarket.Ithasthepotentialtodragthemarketintoanothercorrectionoritselfmaybethebeginningofabearmarket.Howeveronedaydoesn\'tmakeatrend.Iwillfollowthemarketactionsclose...[阅读全文]
(2007-10-19 13:27:37)
Watchlist上面上百个股票，几乎没有看到绿色的。除了Nasdaq以外的所有市场指
数又回到了9月18号FED减息那天的水平。由於今天的跌幅很大，可能会对市场心里
造成影响。我估计IBD对市场的看法可能会从Marketinconfirmedrally改成
“Rallyunderpressure。
Iwillputmybuyplanonholduntilthemarketresumesitsupwardtrend.[阅读全文]
数又回到了9月18号FED减息那天的水平。由於今天的跌幅很大，可能会对市场心里
造成影响。我估计IBD对市场的看法可能会从Marketinconfirmedrally改成
“Rallyunderpressure。
Iwillputmybuyplanonholduntilthemarketresumesitsupwardtrend.[阅读全文]
(2007-10-05 23:38:01)
Thestockmarkethashadaverygoodrunsince8/17/07.It’supin6ofthelast7weeks.Butsincethebeginningof2006,wehavegotone5-weekwinningstreakandtwo4-weekwinningstreaks(includingtheonecurrentlystillrunning).Sotheoddsisagainstustofurtherelongatethestreak.Butgiventhemarketmomentum,it’sstillpossible.However,myguessisthatwewillprobablygetaneventoslightlydownweeknextweek.Ononeortwoofthedays,themarketmayshowsomevol...[阅读全文]
(2007-09-29 16:29:25)
Thestockmarketiscomingoutofaslump.Thechanceforittocontinuetomovehigherinthemonthsaheadisverygood.Butnoteverysectorisgoingtobenefitequally.Sectorrotationsusuallyhappenduringcorrections.Forexample,small/midcapstocksandvaluestocksdidverywellearlythisyear.ButsincetheFeb-Marchcorrection,theyhavefallenfarbehindthetechsectorandlargecapgrowthstocks.Ifyouchecktheperformancesofthefundsinyour401Kaccount,most...[阅读全文]
(2007-09-24 17:40:10)
BernieSchaeffer\'sobservationofthevolatilityindicator9/24/07
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Withtherate-cutmysterysolvedforthetimebeing,we\'renowlefttosortthroughconjectureonthetworemainingmeetingsof2007,themarketcanearnestlycontinuetherecoveryfromitsAugustnadir,whichwasdefinedbyclimacticpessimism.Weekslater,thispessimismcontinuestounwind,asexemplifiedbythepricea...[阅读全文]
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Withtherate-cutmysterysolvedforthetimebeing,we\'renowlefttosortthroughconjectureonthetworemainingmeetingsof2007,themarketcanearnestlycontinuetherecoveryfromitsAugustnadir,whichwasdefinedbyclimacticpessimism.Weekslater,thispessimismcontinuestounwind,asexemplifiedbythepricea...[阅读全文]
