苍海泛舟
方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨
博文
(2008-07-28 06:05:52)
SOHUhasanotherblowoutER.
HereisERsummary;
Q2ER$1.02vs0.67cexpected
Q2Revenue102Mvs96.5Mexpected
Q3ER1.00-1.05vs0.71estimated
Revenue:112-116Mvs106Mestimated
SOHUhadatruelyremarkableERbyallstandards,andblowawaythemostaggressiveERestimated.
尽管如此，股票近期并没有太大上涨空间，原因如上文所述.（ExceptERparts)建议逢高卖掉股票。
JM2C
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(2008-07-25 19:07:54)
所有的迹象表明SOHU季报后，会高台跳水。
SOHU季报可能小幅超过预期，但FutureERguidelower.
原因如下：
1。SentimentistooBullish.ERpositivesurprisealreadypricedin.
2.BIDUERPositivesuprisepushSOHUstockpriceraisesharplyhigherbeforeER.(Buildtofall)
3.AnalystExpectationistoohigh.Ratingisalsotoohigh.Among11analysts,8ratedstrongbuy,2buyandonlyonehold.Itiseasytogetdisappointed.
4.L...[阅读全文]
SOHU季报可能小幅超过预期，但FutureERguidelower.
原因如下：
1。SentimentistooBullish.ERpositivesurprisealreadypricedin.
2.BIDUERPositivesuprisepushSOHUstockpriceraisesharplyhigherbeforeER.(Buildtofall)
3.AnalystExpectationistoohigh.Ratingisalsotoohigh.Among11analysts,8ratedstrongbuy,2buyandonlyonehold.Itiseasytogetdisappointed.
4.L...[阅读全文]
(2008-07-25 11:31:25)
Marketstillmovebackandforceinanarrowrange.ItisFriday,soMarketwillmovenowhere.
Thecriticalpointtowatch:
ForS&P1250wasMaxpainforlastOE,ItcarryovermostofcallsandputstoAugust,soitisstillserveasoptionrelatedsupport.Breakdownthislevelandstaybelowmeansmarketwillresumedowntrend.Currently,itholdupverywell,sonextweek,wecouldseesomeupdays.
ForNaz2300iscriticalleveltostayaboveinordertokeepuptr...[阅读全文]
Thecriticalpointtowatch:
ForS&P1250wasMaxpainforlastOE,ItcarryovermostofcallsandputstoAugust,soitisstillserveasoptionrelatedsupport.Breakdownthislevelandstaybelowmeansmarketwillresumedowntrend.Currently,itholdupverywell,sonextweek,wecouldseesomeupdays.
ForNaz2300iscriticalleveltostayaboveinordertokeepuptr...[阅读全文]
(2008-07-25 07:03:04)
SoldSKF50shrsat$135Gained$21x50=1050
SoldSKFone150callat$8.9
Position100shrsofSKF
Totalcash:1050+650+890=$2590
Costreduceto:$174-25.9=$148.1
Waitfornextopportunity.
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(2008-07-24 15:06:32)
ContinueholdSKF150shrs.SKFhasgoodchancetogoupto150+innearterm.
SetuplimitordertosellSKFat$150GTC(all150shrs)
Wewillseeinnextfewdays.
Bytoday'scloseprice,stilllose$20/shr.Butithassignificantimprovefromafewdayago.Thecostnewdownto$150.
TradingPlan,therearetwoscenarios:
1.SKFgoupto150+thesellorderbefilled,thenweareoutoftrap.
2.SKFcannotreach150inthisupwave,then,Iwillsell50shrsb...[阅读全文]
SetuplimitordertosellSKFat$150GTC(all150shrs)
Wewillseeinnextfewdays.
Bytoday'scloseprice,stilllose$20/shr.Butithassignificantimprovefromafewdayago.Thecostnewdownto$150.
TradingPlan,therearetwoscenarios:
1.SKFgoupto150+thesellorderbefilled,thenweareoutoftrap.
2.SKFcannotreach150inthisupwave,then,Iwillsell50shrsb...[阅读全文]
(2008-07-24 12:28:05)
Oilisdueforbounce.USOcouldgoupto106-108area.USOyesterdaycloseisrighton38.2%Fiboretracement.
BecauseUSObreaksthelongtermuptrendline,anybounceissuspicious.IfUSOcannotcloseabove106andstaythereformorethanoneday,itwillresumethedowntrend.USOnexttargetwillbe94and88.
OilandUSObounceisjustcoincidewithmarketpullback.
USODailyChart
OilandUSObouncewillboostcommoditystockswhichrecentlyhadsizabl...[阅读全文]
(2008-07-24 11:59:52)
(Thisispartofmypostinasmallgroupthismorning.)
SPXandDowstarttoretreatfromyesterdayclosebecauseofoverboughtconditionandlongdueforretreatsment.AsIsaidSPXhitresistanceat1292whichisFibo38.1%bouncefrom7/15lows.Itcouldre-test1250inafew
days.IfSPXcanholdabove1250bydayclose,itwillbecomenewlanchpadtocontinuereboundstartfrom7/15.The1stresistanceareaisstill1292.
AAPLstartdropbadly.Theexcitimentof...[阅读全文]
SPXandDowstarttoretreatfromyesterdayclosebecauseofoverboughtconditionandlongdueforretreatsment.AsIsaidSPXhitresistanceat1292whichisFibo38.1%bouncefrom7/15lows.Itcouldre-test1250inafew
days.IfSPXcanholdabove1250bydayclose,itwillbecomenewlanchpadtocontinuereboundstartfrom7/15.The1stresistanceareaisstill1292.
AAPLstartdropbadly.Theexcitimentof...[阅读全文]
(2008-07-23 08:33:28)
BoughttocloseSKF170callat1.8Gain$650intwodays.
IalsobetmyrealmoneyonSKFthismorning.
Currentposition:
150SKFaveragecostdownto{(174-8.3+1.8)x100+114x50}/150=$149.67
Currentholding:150shrsofSKFataveragecost$149.67
Costreducedfromtwodaysago:174-149.67=24.33
%costreduce:14%
Thiswillbeupdatedcontinuouslyasexamplehowtoescapefromtrap.
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IalsobetmyrealmoneyonSKFthismorning.
Currentposition:
150SKFaveragecostdownto{(174-8.3+1.8)x100+114x50}/150=$149.67
Currentholding:150shrsofSKFataveragecost$149.67
Costreducedfromtwodaysago:174-149.67=24.33
%costreduce:14%
Thiswillbeupdatedcontinuouslyasexamplehowtoescapefromtrap.
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(2008-07-23 07:15:38)
UsehalfMarginBot50shrsofSKFat$114
FinancialswentuptoofastandtoomanywithnochangeinFA.Finacialproblemsarelargelyremained.
TA:XLFhit20DMAandhasmetstrongresistancethere.Itisdueforapullback.
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FinancialswentuptoofastandtoomanywithnochangeinFA.Finacialproblemsarelargelyremained.
TA:XLFhit20DMAandhasmetstrongresistancethere.Itisdueforapullback.
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(2008-07-22 13:30:43)
QQQQ再一次Survive了.今天开盘不久就达到了今天的低点43.86,然后就路上升，收盘时夺回了所有失地。QQQQ又一次在关键的时刻回到了通道之内，避免了SellOff.S&P500在早盘回探1248后，强力反弹。1250MaxPain起到了很好的支撑作用，使下冲的攻势瓦解了。Dow终盘涨135点。
近期的下调，被暂时击溃，市场会恢复涨势。DowandS&P对扭转大盘跌势起到了重要作用，并把NazandQQQQ从危险的边[阅读全文]
近期的下调，被暂时击溃，市场会恢复涨势。DowandS&P对扭转大盘跌势起到了重要作用，并把NazandQQQQ从危险的边[阅读全文]
