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诺贝尔文学奖得主南斯拉夫作家伊沃·安德里奇的名作《德里纳河上的桥》,通过故乡维舍格勒小城的一座古桥,生动地描绘了波黑人民四百年的苦难和奋斗。这部书写作于1942-43年,在四十多年后,中国作家陈忠实写出了《白鹿原》。这两本书有极大的相似处。我觉得陈忠实写《白鹿原》时肯定受了《德里纳河上的桥》的影响。《德里纳河上的桥》像是一本浓缩版的《白[
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南斯拉夫有几部战争电影,在八十年代广为流传。其中的《内雷特瓦河战役》一片,给我印象极深。小时候一边看一边心中迷惑:这TMD的是游击队?你管这叫游击队?南斯拉夫游击队有一排排的大炮,能和德国坦克正面对轰(这当然有点夸张了)。游击队员都穿着漂亮的统一的军服,好多演员都像男模。女兵还有时髦的黑色皮夹克,勾勒出苗条的腰身。武器方面,人手一挺轻[
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从杜布罗夫尼克(Dubrovnik)去特拉夫尼克(Travnik)途中经过莫斯塔尔(Mostar)。这座城市以一座“古”桥而闻名,现在被开发得有点像欧洲版的乌镇,人气极高。4月底还没到旅游旺季,游人尚少。古桥确实上相,颜值颇高。
在建设那座著名的古桥之前,据说先进行了prototyping(原型法),构筑了一座小桥,用来验证拱桥结构,就是这座。此处还真有点中国小桥流水的[
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晚上在手机上刷电影视频,就是那种几分钟讲完一个电影的庸俗快餐视频。划到老电影《风云雄霸天下》,以前没看过,于是饶有兴味地看起来。待到剑圣出场,玉树临风,仙风道骨,但是却............没有脸。整个脸被高科技算法处理过了,那效果好像脸上被挖了一个洞,说不出的别扭。要说这算法也真够厉害的,整部剧只有他一个人没有脸。这空洞随着他,如影随形,严瓷[
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奥威尔在写这段悲惨经历的时候,仍然时见幽默。比如他和一些外国人被围困在涉外高档酒店里面,外援断绝,但是酒店的酒窖里面藏有葡萄酒。这些“体面”的外国人在一个封闭的系统内,仍然遵循市场经济公平买卖的结果就是Weweredrinkingolderandolderwinesathigherandhigherprices.大家是先买便宜的酒开始喝,便宜的酒喝光了,再开始买贵一点的酒……奥威尔夫妇在巴塞罗[
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在以列宁的名字命名的军营里,奥威尔加入了马克思主义统一工人党(缩写为P.O.U.M)的民兵武装。西班牙内战中左派阵营中派系之庞杂,令后人难以理解。其实联共(布)在革命成功前,也只是俄国众多左派中的一个小党派。革命成功后,它将所有其它派系消灭干净,之后苏联模式的成功,更将这一套推广到全球,让人产生只有一个形态和一条道路的错觉。奥威尔加入的POUM,[
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1936年夏,西班牙内战爆发。12月底,年轻的英国作家奥威尔作为一名记者来到巴塞罗那。和同时代的很多左翼知识分子一样,他到西班牙后就被如火如荼的革命形势所鼓舞,迅速撕下了新闻记者的伪装,投入了武装斗争的怀抱,成为一名光荣的革命战士。岂知世事难料,仅仅半年之后,他就惶惶如丧家之犬般逃回了英国腐朽没落的资本主义怀抱,捡回了一条小命,并收获了本[
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婆喽蜥窜访台湾,引发中国政府的强烈批评,说美国政府在国际事务上一贯出尔反尔、言而无信。其实这一点倒没有错。这其实是有深刻原因的。已故最高法院大法官AntoninScalia,曾经在一次国会听证会上,向听众们提问道:为什么人们都说我们美国是一个自由的国家?究竟是什么在保障我们的自由?如果去问街头群众这个问题,一般人会说我们的言论自由和出版自由等权利是[
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NHG3ud1U/YcMm5nHUUpRg6nSykMp8iDYPwOAZ6v49wKHNZdsrICI2AA07FdNFSvgNJAratqqsYd0r6p83l7eD+MxDfuCpFHrH4+9CfcMav0C6dQZ+NRqCZgD5yI7Ekc2T8pTz23Hj5m3Y5lKUXRrSZ5t470xOa4XHlp2Y5mDMCiQbeMI62xr21JCm9zsd98WX8Hv8dmv1cf7TYtHW90Qiny0maRAuYhXWWG3aIu7q1cyBZB52K5HFX/AAe/x+a/Vx/tNjRtODommpG2jHkzpL/6vM/ziX+8bHrPHkzpL/6vM/ziX+8bE6PY9Qk1c/wMwvb+EF/uGxdfwevxub/Vx/tPikL/ACO38/X+4fF3/B6/G5v9XH+0+Ln8WTHk2sYxLqmY/wANZ0eBWax7p0r7zjbRjFOiPEuH5DPZvMT5xTI7yIqJFOdAaTU2pjGAWtQNttjucZafDNJco2ojHn+Hh8cHSRIYgAi5kFQOS6kDkD0BYivTFx6Q9c2WRCMojzyVszKUjHqdXePuAF+YxmfQPNNLxbLSyNqd59bMfEtqJP14uEWk2yZNM9OYwLr1jLcSiVRZbLxgAeJMkoA+vG+4zPpXxPJQ8ay3yqAs5iTs5tZ0xsXkCXFVGjfeJNWDW14jT5KnwU/o5xaTJxcT4TmZFoZebs+93RJoOpELV7eqwK5qa54k/wAHr8Zm/wBCL75MUzp5lHl4tm440LuZWIVRZOldTGvQAn4Yuf4PJ+czf6EX3yY1mvazOPJtS88Yl1Kg/wAJ53y0Pf8AXCv8cbYMZl1TcZSXMZ2IZaGFle9USsC41uvf1M1kHfah3jtjGPxZpLlGm48rdO+zHEM0Ia7PtWrTyv6demrVje+nHRzN5iFxls7LGSPxVIEf83tEUSLfKyzDz2x5pkjKkqwKlSQQeYI2IPqDjTSXZE2BOeCwac8FjYzA3M4negTVxHJn/wCwn2msQTczh5wftxKkmWR2kjYSLoQuVKkEEqAdrrngYy79aXQeTKTtmsurfJ3fWCl/MOTZBr2VvdW5DltQtboF1n5pJ4cvmG+URSOsYLbyLqIUEPzar5NZPniAl4rxhpe3LZztOQISQAA8xoC6NJ8qrCsXGuKo3aJAySf7RMjGr7/niG8RVqmO/BtPWdxuPLZCcOw1zI0US+LM40kgeSglifTzIxl/UVxRIs5JC5C9vGFQnxZDqC+8gmvdijcalzLydpmu2MjbapgwJHkNQ5eg2wwwlCo0NyzZ7Fx5W6a8Nlhzs6SIylpXZLB76s5ZSp+kCCOXnXPD7hHTriqlYoMxNIfooVErH/eVmOJzO9IekRS2XMovmmWCnf8ARj1D7MKEXFjlKyF4zAcvw2DLSArNNmDmTGfajjEfZR6xzBbvMAfDFt/B6Pz2b/Qj/afGUzyszszszOT3i5JYnx1E7378WfhfHeLRxosDZhYwoCaIrBUezTCPcetnFyVqiU8npsY8k9IT/Gsz+vl/bbFkk6WcbUFmkzSgCyTFQAG5JJj2A88RfFZOI5kATxzyAHULgI3PM2qC8TCG0qUrK/ix9XB//KZP9cPuOImXhOYUFmy8yqBZJicADzJIoDEnwLM8QgXVlVnVXIbUkJYN5EMUPh5HFvgg9TY8/wDXy1cRj3r+LJ+3LiP/APE/HP8AaZv+pP8Al4TbpBxonUTmSw5E5eyPj2eMoabiy5StFz6vOjs3ZZvimb1drLDII9YpiCpLyEUKugBy2s+Iw0/B1Pfzf6EX3yYrM/SPjTqyO+bKsCrAwncEUR+L8sNOEdIuKImjLvOEjqOo4gdOnYKSEJseRN4pxbTEnTPTy88YX1O8QSPiuaiYgGYSKnqyyaq95XUf6JxBf+KOOf7TN/1J/wAvEVxNuIzsjyx5hmjNo3YspUkg2CiDewDfphR06TTG5Wz1LjzP1icClizeanePRE+YcIWoa9VyWi82AB3YbCwMKf6ReLwjs3zDqfDtYU1fW6WfebxWuLcWnzEna5iV5X5Wx5DyA5KPQADDhBxCUkxonPBYNOeCxoZgbmcOOHZl0kUxuyEsASrEWLGxrw9MN25nCmW9tP01+8YBnsJjucZN1ocVmg4rw8xSugIQMoY6WBl0kMvIggkb41luZxlXWZwdpuJ5GTXDHFGql3kljTSFkLmlZgzbChQIs++uaHyNZcGo5mBXUo6h1OxVgCD7wdjjDelPVsDxWLLZbuQzp2x8RCFNSUD4ezpHm4HIY1PiXTnh8KlnzcJr6KOHY+5Us4rXV50nHEOIZufSUVIY4oVPtBNTsxNbamaia/NG9YcN0U2EqeC5dHej2XycQiy8YQfSb6bnzZ+ZP7isY91f8QkPSCYlie1edX35hdTKPcugAeVY3YY8/dXn8vt+tzP3S4IZTsJKqNX6b9B8vn42tRHOB3JgNwfAPXtJ6Hl4Viv9SmfkEOZyU1iXLS1pJ9lW20g+QZG+BGNKxkmX4kuX6TyoD3cwixv+mY1dfiSoH9PCi200NpJ2X/pxw4z5DMxKTqaJitEi2XvKNvAkUfMEjxxX+pbi7TcOVWYs8MjRkkkkg1Iu59Hr+ji+DGf9AcgmQzE2SIAed5p09Io3WOEfEFz8MJO4tA+Rz1yZRpOGSspYGJlc0SLW9Dg1zGlia9MZFl+L5jL8J0rNKpzGY0oA7DTFAo16N+6C7qpqr0Y9D8ZyIngmhblLGyH+kpH+OPNnTdeyfL5Tl8my6I48pZPnpf7Tgf0caaTxRE1TN56sZmfheVZ2ZmKGySST325k4ieuvMOnDiyOyN20YtWIO+q9xiS6q/5Kyn6s/tthr1uRQtkQuYleKLto7dE1kc/o6h9e/uOJXzK6KD1V9NczFPFBmnkfL5k6YXkJJVwdI0udyhbuEeBI5b2w6CTuvHuzDsFOYzGpQx0tSzblbonYfVg+tuCGH+DlyrfNLl7iZTuRqDBrH0ie9e25xF9VLE8XyxYksWkJJ5kmKSySd7vG3TZmelrxk3R/ikw6R5mHtXMTa7QsSvdRWBC3QIPj6nzxrGM16NHKnjucASUZgKTqZ1MZHzYbSoUFTRXmW8cc8OGay6NB4jkYp0Mc8ayoeauAR9vI+ox5c6ZcKTK52fLxm0jkpb5gEBgCfMXV+mPQ3TOXiKws2QWFiBuGDGSq30C9BbyB+/HmPMTM7s8jFnZizM3MsTZJ9bxppIiZynPBYNOeCxsZgbmcd5b20/TX7xjhuZw64bnnibVGsbMRVPFHJ43ssisAfUC8Az14/M4wn8IIfxvLfqD+22IT/STxj/bt/URf5eIzjHSrO5kVmAkp0lAzZaEsoP5L9nqXndqQbxlDTadlykmqK5WLN1d9JvkGcSZrMTAxygc9Jo2B4lSAfcCPHFe+Tv8AkN/unA+Tv+Q31HGtWqIs9d5PNJKiyRuro4tWU2CPQ4wXq7H/AJgb9bmfukxVuAdIc9kz/FpJYwTZTTqQ+9GBW/Xn64lounWcSR5o8vBHPICHmTL983z3JIsnc7b+OMlptJ0U5Wb/ANIuOw5OBp5m0qvIfSc+CqPFj/1O2PMWf49LJnGzp2lMwlA8ipBRQfIABfhjnjHEM1mn7TMPLK/gWul9FUDSo9ABhj8nf8hv904qGntBys9dZHNrNGkqG0kRXU+YYBh9hxiPFOk//mNJb7kUoyv9GjE/1O7H4YrfDenfFIIkhimdY4xpQGGM0ByFshJr1xWpUlZi7ByzMWLUbJJsn33vhR0qbsHOz13PIEVnY0qgsx8gBZx5H4tnzmJ5Z25yyNIfTUS1fAGvhix57p7xWaJ4ZJnZJFKOOxjGpWFEWEBFjyOKzAkisGCElSCAyBga81YFWHoQRhw09oSlZ6U6rP5Kyn6s/ttiH68/5MP6+P8A4sZZlOn/ABSJBHFJ2aLsqpl4VVfHZRHQwnn+nPEpl7OZxKl3pky0DLY5GmiIvE+m91jc1VD/AKvOEzcRny0cgvLZOyzV4FzKIyfEs21eC3h10VN9JWP/ANrM/dPiIynT7ikShIpBGg5KmWhVR7lWMDEdkOkObhkeaMKJnkaQyHLxM4Z71aXZCVBs91aG523xe15JtHqjGNcDzSx9J8wGNay8a+rFEYD46Tiqf6SeMf8AyG/qIv8ALxB8V4zmswwklA7QMH7RII45Cw5EyxorGvU8wD4YiOk1ZUppnqwY8v8AT/hMkedzcnZMsPyh1Vqpba5AAfHazt4YmMp1pcWRNBZXr6UkNt8StA/EYq3SHj+ZzcmvNSs7DYAiggO9KgAA8PU0LvBCDiEpJkYnPBYNOeCxqZgbmcGjkEFSQRyINEe4jBNzOCwDJzM5edI1lOaDBzShZpCW3ANAgcrF74GYyuaQsGmfuyiE/Oybs10RfNdjv9mI2TPExwx0KiLEH8rWQ248KrEhnOkskurXuDMsyguSE033Fv6O/wBmLtMnIXFUzEJpsyWNkEJLKSCNjeoD7MHlMvm5IxKkshUyiH8a/dZtNE7+zbAX54Q45xoZghipUgk7yu4725AVtlHoPTHfCePvAEEYBCyM5s7PqVVKkeXcBvz92DF/QU6HEGTzLK7nNaAkjRHVLLuygE1QO243NYTy8GZeLthmG7MBizGV+4VoaW/ObUNIF3eOsn0j0JJGUJEkrSnTM6HvgAqdHMbePnhtluMaITB2alGB12d2Y1pa67pShQG3Pzw8BkXeHMCAT/KhpOwUTSaroErVVqAIsXhLh7ZiUsFndQo1M7yuFUWBubPMkADmbw0bNkwiGhQkMt+PeVUqvLu38cdcM4j2RcaRIjrpdCSLohlIZdwQQCDibVjokYMrmXeRFzP4tQxftpNJBIAogWTbAVXnjj5PmikzrM7rCRrKySeN7gGrAo3yqsKL0pbtXlKXqjWKhK4YBSCD2t6i2258bw3i6QMhdoxpLyrJZcsQVDAglt2Da2u/PFe0WR4vDs1qlU5nT2TBGLSy0SwJFUCTyPgMcZLJZqVQVzPtOyIDM4LlaJ0+B5irrng4elBDzv2f41lc6JXQrpBGzJRIN4R4f0keFOzVRo1OzDUbYSALWrmCtbMDeD2iycZVc1JFJKssmmKtVyPZvnQvfSNz5DHccOYMBn+VAKNipmk1XRIWqrUaNC8c8P6QtCiRqkZRdWsMATJr2a2ItbWl28hhimdqFoQBTSCS737oZa9fa5+mFih0yRjy2ZLBe3YAxLMWaZwqIwBBY+B3AoA7nCsXD820ojSdmLIZEYTPpdR+S3ne1GqPOsNU46QRqRWQwpC6EmnVKo2N1awDtywG46dXdRUUQvCiBj3A4NtqO5ayT/yw/aGRPNSZmMIXmlGsFgO0exTFCGBOxtTth3ksrmZFRhmSnaEiNXmcNIQaOke/bcizthlxji7T9mZANSLoJH09ydRHmb3wvkuOaFjDQpI0JJidmYaLOrdQacBtxeEqsMi0OWzLRdqcz2a2y08soa0rVsAeVjxxCPIWOpiWJ5liST4bk4ftxuXshCHZQWdnpiO07SrDKNiNj/vHEdiXXQ0dJzwWDTngsIANzOCwbczgsAyez0uXOVECt341DhtNK7t+MUPeo7MAAQB81z3w949xXLyJmVjRQ7BacD8ZpdK0j6NLqvldDDOHhMDnLKjSAzk3q0UoUsjchzsWPTHWU6PoWjEkopoXlZkZCo0MVoOdqrnfI3jXJOCTz/FYTmYXEqGJZCSASaGk0dHZCv8AebnhhneIwuzMGBvKslsBrMhNgNpULqHIEDkBviNy/Dked41ZtCBmsUzMEXUQtbFjW3h4+GFcvkISJZPn+yjCd3SvaHXdHy0ijvW9rywrbFgW4lmVeJViljWLSgEJTvKwADlm0flWxbVuDXph5ms5lTJlzG1CCVEOpK1xAg6tidVEMd6PznLbDcdHEBmV5gnZSKoLCgVKmRrHg4UE15qRgHo6na9nravlJgva9IUNq/S392HnwPAjxzNQPEnYjSxld3StlJCDu/mnSWA8LI8MOc1xeHsoIgNRCw6mIXTGVrXXd1Enkd6xw3RwKY7kLK0ckpKAEskdFdA82BHPlv5YaS8H/jEcCsQJdJVmKts/jaGjyNVz25YHaBUT03GMu08ThlKrLNqZgLUFSEA0p+LOxBNkE78t0snxKMTTM0sfejQI2s1YayNfYbGr+h416iMm4MmxQyaGilcatGrVEurSQvLwBB3FnCHC+GI6a5DLRlEIEagkEi7a/DfYczvgt2KkSWQ4tAigSKkrfKXkv8n2Ark0NSe2aoWQNhjnJZ6FZUYsukZqaQ2NtDKoQ1XIkHbHEHR1DG9yHtFaZFClaYwi9lPea/Q7YaZjgbJlFzO9kgla2CMSEN+dgX6OvrgygwS2W4llQ8DJpjAjm1K3+rdx3V1aTtd0aNCtsIDiEF5gSlZFl7JRpNkAagzK2he8pKn2RfLfniD4xlOxmkjFkISAT40MTOa6PRiQIjyUMyuXfWF31fSQjY1RsEeIwWwpC7cRj7ScwyxxO02oSMlhoqrSvcat99NC7HlhGPPR/IuyEiB/nNQsgm2sUvZG7HLvLV4ZHhSfJ2lVmaRSbW1AVQ4SyG3I3HeWwCaI5nC+c4Gi61VpNUUiRuWUBX1mrj8fC6PMb4Mhg46OZnLxh2n3MnzWkLZCHd23Iq9gCLIo7YfcEzuWjEUcpVtE0jdoAe7WjQTtujjVt4bHwwnnOj0UcsceuTS3bE7xlqhUsCpWxTEEUdxRvCWX4FEXOqR1j7ATDVpVhb6KYt3R534gjAk10GGd8OzsQy0SPIhUJIJIdFu7MW7Om092rU6tQqsVsYsWU4FG8Tya3AVpQDcZCrGAQWFhmvUBacrHniujEyvspHSc8Fg054LEABuZx1EmogWBfixoD3nHLczg0qxqJC+JAsgeNAkX7rGAZIjLONNZmEaPYqU92zZrbbck7Y6hhkSimaiUqCF0zEUCbIFDYE71i5cb6rhl2y6tm9RzEgiSodgxFjUe12HqAcQmQ6DSniI4bO/YytZV1TWjAK0gO7KdJCnfnexAwb0G1kKcu5ftPlMWu719sdV8r1Vd4UAmDmQZyMSHYv27aiPLVV1ixZjoJEnERw584wkYLpf5ONBLLqUfjrBPLlzwrw7q7WRImbNhGlzD5ZFEOqzGWBa+0FCkJ9LA3wb0FMqbZIkEGeEgnUQZeZ33O253O/qcd9lJer5TFerXfbG9XLVde1688W7i/VmsJzCfLA0mXy3ynT2NB17+wPamiClE1tqHPCGb6vkThy8SOabs2VW0DLjV32CDnNXM+eDegplXTLuumszENF6KmI0XudNDa/THM2WZ21vmIWb8ppiTty3IvEzmuikQTJSpmS8ebcxg9jTRMpVCCvakHvNRojYWLxOcW6rDFmIcouaDTTpI0dwlUuIaiGYSMVsXuFODegoqJMxYOc4hcCg3btqAPMA1YxyolDMwzcYZvaYTtbe81Z+OGfE+HyZeV4JV0yRtpYevofEEUQfEEYlej3AEngzWYlzHYplVQmo9ZcyFlVQNa0bUDc/S8Kw9wUNIopFUouajVDzUTMFPnagUccHKNv8AxiHddB+eO6iqU7bqKG3LYeWLLx/oGMvkIs82ZJEujREYtLfODVz7UiwtmvSvXCnG+gCZfJQ55s0zRzCMhVgGodqusXc1bDY74W9BTK1mYZJKEmajcDlrmJq+dWNuQ+rBzLKxVmzUbFd1JnYlfdY2+GJLjHRaOFsnpzJljzahlcQ0UshQChk3Nmj3hVHnh10/6Drw0xB8wZTLqPdhC6QhUMbMps94UPHzGHvQUQJgk0dn8qi0Xejtjpvnemqu98HJDIwVWzUTBPZBmYhfcCNvhix9LOgK5LKxZpsyZFlZFCrCAQHUyEkmUjZVO3ia3HPHPT3oB/B0cUjZjtTIxVVEWkDSATbGQ+B8sG9BtZXhFICGGajBBLAiY2C3tEGtifEjng0SUMXGbjDtzcTtqPvarPIfVh/0e6Ivmspm82JAi5Zb06L7SlLsNWoaaAHgeeI3o5wtcxmEgaXsg9jXo1BaGrcal2oHe/hg3IKOuxku/lUV2xvtjdvs/h9Ic/PxxHTR6SVtWrxU2D47HFz6Q9APkmcy+VlzHczAGmVYbpi2jSU7TlutsD9Llily6bOgkrfdLKFJHgSoLAH0s+/BuTWAqgk54LBpzwMIAm5nHL8j7sdNzOOX5H3YAPRXWF+O4R/O0+4Yj+Oyqek2RA9pcuwb0tMwQCPOiD8Rjrri4rJloMnLEE7QS2rMobQQlhlB2v1IOM86sc5JNxqCWVy8jtIWZuZPYyfvXhyxjFe2/wDS28k91k5Rl4jms6FJGWXLFTyHaF4yBfK9Ibb1B8sM+AcZSfiHDY42tVzGYl93bSOVBHgdKqaPgw88SfWVxGSTOZrh+s6ZxljEpOwfXGp0g8iQxJr8nFR6EZYR8ZhiUkhMyyAnmQutRdeO2LS9onyW7rS4j2PFHsgLLw6SE3+es+kfFwmH/FI2bovEqgszJCFAFkkzKAAPEk+GKz17/wAop/Nk/akxbM1nZYejUUkLskiRxFWU0Qe2X/tXjeJ6Q+2UPMMsWZgyIsfJ+I2BuQAxhU0T+cjH441jpIf/AM1ww+AizBPoOzO58hjJ89EJM5FnVNjMcQparSQphcketyVzrY41fpcxbivD4G70M0c6yxNukgVNQ1IdjRAI8iMEuV+iRjnWdxWPMcRnlhIZBpQMOTlFCsR5iwQD4gX44YcCYyRtklJ1ZnM5ddh9Fe1B+ppEPw9ML9YfB48rn54IhUYIZBd6Q6h6+BJA9AMS/Uxw3tuJxsRtCjSn31oX7Xv+ji8KIuyx9f2fCnK5RNlRTKV8v9XH9QWT68S/SzItPwThsKAlpPkqAD1io/UN/hikdYzfKs7xGezoyqxxrXKxIkRB9LMp2rcD43zpFxaTK8G4bPE7KyDKk0a1L2XeU+akbEHE1SRXkzHO5tTPlcst/wAXzMkYBvZTOrJuef0vqxdPwjPayn6M33xYpWeyKrmctmFaxmM1I68q0pMFUj3nV9mLr+EX7WU/Rm++LDfKF0x71xRluEZIKCTri5C/9Q/lgvwgvxGU/WP+yMLdbWbki4Rk2ikeNi0QtGKmuxc1YPLYfVhL8IM/MZT9Y/7AxEev0PIr1PwI/DsxliN5UZ2vxE3awAfVB9uMj6LX8oTwPZy/3MmNa6pBLFm5YXjdUGUgCkqQpZArONVUTrlk+3GbRZbsuJTxVWh80v1JMBi1ywfCNT6aIM1luE55RuJ4C3oJtGr6nVRjBo+Q92N36r5BmeDdi25gl/u3XMJ99YwiPkPdgh2gfk7TngYCc8DFkhNzODRQSAx0g7E1dDzrxwR54LABpfWZ02ymfy0McJlV4m1U8dBrXTVhjXnirdAOLQ5XOxZmctoi1GkXUW1IyVzFe1fwxXcDEqKSod9mmZrpVw+Xiy8SkefQgUrEIRqLIukEnXQAPe+AxWOj3GYYuJjOSFxEszygBbYhixAq6BpvPwxW8OOH8OmnOmCKSU+UaM1e/SNvjhqPQmy0dZ/SLL57MLPAXoRCMq6aSNJZrsEijq+zE7nemWTfhCcN1zCRVRTJ2Pd7jhztrvwrEFkurTPvvIkcI85pFH2JqI+NYRzXRrKw2Jc6ZGH0YYv+N2H3YuOjJrCJepFPkfZ3juSEfDYYWm05WVpJXaMAuSyuSqhzzKkVewrFh6Q9ZGVkz2SzkSzFcv2iujIFJWVSpKnVRI8jV4zqYZYGkSRv03H3Iq/fhXKcN7U9yE0PNwq/XIw+/D9DyNTJbrH49ls1O82XDsZCjMzoFKBE0aV3JIa9R5DurzxIdVXS7K8P7d5xKZJNKpoQEBV1E2Sw5lv7OIEcPA5xR7fksT8LFi8KnhsLbbL8D/iRhekqqx7sjr+F8ouRzcIklkzOaljdpDFpQBHD1u5JO7n1sDwxO9I+mGSzPDcvkFkmVoREDIYrB7JNBpQ978xir/8Ah+M1pkBs1yI+NlqrDOfgirfzg9KDb361t8cJ6X2O2TnH+OZOR+HpAZVhyqBXZ4xqYhg9hVY2WIN77asPetTpbleImBoGlTs9SsHjqxIU3FMeWnl44prcL8nHxBw2kyTjwv3H9zhbBWaH086Z5TOZHL5WJpVeJ4yWaLYhUaNiKa/paq8arHfWR0yyPEUgRHmjETkuWjslWAB0gPzFeOMyIrngsTsSHZf+i3SrLZbik+baSVoX7TSBH3j2h1AadVDSQBz3w1z/ABfJS8TlzfaSrDIHahEC+p4zGQRrA5ktfw9cUrAw6zYrL71adMYcgM1HMZHjlUdmUX6S6lsqWFWGHnyxQVGwweBgoDpOeBgJzwMMAm5nBY6Is0NyTQA8caN0Q6o8xmKlzROWi56SPnWH6J2T3tv+bgoTaRnUUbMwRFLMdgqgkn3AbnF96PdUucnpp9OWTn3xqkP/APNTt/SKn0xsPAOC5LJIRlYlvkZPaZvfIbNe7YeWFs9xjSpNjleNo6TZjLV8Fa4d1dcMyi6pF7Zl5tMbX+rFJ8CCcNOkPTuKCPRlwFA5BAAB6UBQ+GKp0x6VGR9IO3IDy9a8MUifPA3Y1N4HwH146VCMF9ma3Tf0TPFeks0ts8hF8lvz8x/ifsxFZWLtDshJ/fx5YbZUNsxPcvcnl7t/H3YejMB9TVpjBqgd3Pld3Q54iepg3jppErwzLKj65FV9G+gnZtuRK734iiNx8CM3dKXVgjchZAfSQD3m2JBrwPhhrl85+StLfjy/6+/CszlwWZxerl4/UBVDHO85NVxgbshI5UfL9/jz9MBVFUbP+Hv8heOkcjam1XYo7jz2q7+rDZV3BIPMb/8AX4YAFJWut7oUBe6jl5VXu9fHCOo1Rqz4/v8ACv3pxPNYrQq140bPvJPw/wCZw2kNbgbcq3rb9/8AthgASgG9Pj+/L7sdxZsCyVB/fzOGrHe/Xy/fbHStuaHhR8fAg8vU+de+8PAZCzUgJ7wHOvTb0/flhm8I8NsOmhJBI5CgeWxN8xfod/u2whgVCY3aIjHGHdY5ZAcJ6fgBrgYUaIjCeM2muQOk54LBpzwMID0d0L6C5XI1Iamm8ZnHsnxEa7hB68/M4tmYzCsKsEEY5MKAbgGvPfFI6bdJnhTTAADdbEWPclb+Hrjrhp28HI5PsU4nnCjvqOkeAHKv39MULpV0sLAou3uOEONcZmq5zTHko2JHqd9Irws/DbFMnlMjeQ+73kn7zjqlJRX2Rp6bcvoRnmLG7wljuQ8tq2+v192FcllTISByG5xyyl2zrSoOLvkLVIu5rnWwJs8ydv3vEgYnkcd0m6CqASSBso257VuMKpkK00RpI1GrNb13zV7WB5d4VzOO8wAO74ACvE8h5ePpjnvcXRw+wKjw993+5PLHK2O8ykeG+3v2POvs+OFInU0rWhLAM1mtOwor5gjVt5AVeOJs1GjspI1IaGgBkcqau2O4PPkQfLfDsYsuYvxA2I5WPqbz57cibFVsHhcKC4cA2y2CAR5gnbmTy8Qdt8L5WdJFkPbopvuJoVXlZiNhQoVQO50j70Jsw+nspNYCXQJJEZ8aQtVE6dxXO+9yM2By0QBJB1qpG4IW9Q2oNv5XQPLmLBwlHCSWFqpA1FXJGsDegOZbka5myRywFFFt2Xx7tMQTemjt4kGwQKB2N1gSxSAKdO1HSStBhyJBoat9rvmDh2M4WQG6paA2Nm/ZBo14896q9vLHcMSU4csG092gDuSDTEsKXeidyCeXOu50TukFtZB1khCCTupWtwCN6PgQQSDs8yccLmTtWZSFuNQgYyM22m7VQ9fSYbkXvYBlsCCnQAXuSDvtsPL7P+vq3YVWxFixfj6jzHP6sSudjJo9mUBLAB5LJA5XQoEA+l3dYjpUIYk0LNkWPH0sk/veKTJYmDjlzWO6wTLjXlCCWTzwbxA+h88JYUjbCTvDGI6CDvgYdRyA7EXgYn04+QPS8mfUq1H67FGvXl/288UnOQwRMZLt2vvH6F86Hh8N8NeI8R7h1h13pe9vQ9R+Vzq/jQxReO8RLE9+9+f77efLy5eXaltORKxjx7iHaMTZs8/L3D0/5YidOwNfH1/esdO+qhQvz8/fZrHOs8r2xlJ2bpUc4ecO5mru1qhfjXLx5jDPDjIsQ1eDDSR5+I+0DGMsootGQgBjkcyDYexpslbC8x7JBYHmD5XviEzE/Z7c2IO1nu3YB+vfT9fPDmNqoAmiKYkCrNirN7cvLl6DEVxFSJX1bHUb/wClEgj1s+/GMUWxuzE898Fg2a8FixBYm+H5qMxMsppl9hq3G6VdbtVNsbAs7AmxCYLEgT86lVWwKokOBYYctmDbpYvkCCSN8dxw7atQW1rY23gbINd0+yCDXL2vGKyeeKoY2JKe0o/JaxdXyBF2Nt6Pvlo2AYMTYDkgADkuwA1gkLZqiBsPHvAIaFJYm0gLG4qMM/eu1vVZ0raqNue42PlhUZlSGQCQqO8iqRpjP0vaDFgCEFg7ixvsRyJO0kaZ1VnJYkRlYmurJIAApg1d0hib5E2SZAGtJFbSo9kFWHdJLBdKhipFN6nckWwQx1ldPzyqI5DpYglmQ77XGp2LKurZhyLHat4ePhDuGZDZAsqTRUEavZaidhzWwefLfDvhYk1iOIiQvaBaY2GXR9JT4GgeY8Kx22UlibSy6QTTxvfeptdNek8wpohT3gVGACGfSL8LABVbNVQJtvPc89ia2GEZKBoEH3Yki0d2dUikEHej4VqPKwwsE+0B3t7GOM5whl0mNlk1KGITVqU3pK6CNWu/ADx8t8aKVEtEcReDUY6zEWnS2oMHF7Vz5MCPAg2PdR8cc3jRNCCI3H24GOgLOBgoZo/SZGHcIuvG/ZIB5Vufdv8AHwz7PC3oXXmRuRi7dLcxepn9snYVsoBOmvE7Wfjil9qCSfHyx0zOeA1MNAnCJw/lm0ilAXaj5+PjewwxJxg2bBYMHwwMEcZ2MkuGudPfsoGAFk0DuTXlzsgemFcxMXVVfcKNI9B/3PPCHC32ddN90nnVVzPLeq5YGrYkUarbazd1Q8f39MR2OzmJQpHcB99m/La68K9xPwRzEV26gAeWwq/AAmzV+H2YKTMEgAkj03rDY4GAMDBrhVwo0kWeVhjzPiRpru+Xj78ICT4XwyIxGacuqsWWKqClkGptZotp5LSAtZ9BbjjMyQns49DsQrB9JuNSA1ANW7kknUtgAbb3hlkeJpECREZJBshke0jF2R2QA1G97LAX9E73H5hizFixYsbLHmSdyTfjd3iR2ORxOSiCwbu6e8ASBYOxq72AvnRI8cPctxzca9S+DFWsEUV9lu9yJB71UTtvtDYGHQWS7cUHZMmm7cOo1EBKsE6QNJYg6b5gD1w4yHSqSIFVjRlatSyDWraeWoNvXuI5VeIDB4KQWy1R8XgnYIV+TGQqHKluyGnkRGN/dZ7uoi63wxzjxJKyxyyAo/dLIFBK7K1atjz8BQO17DEFg8FBZKCQkMXp6INlSb53bbE7+PK/MHCGYi0nYHnYYHajuK2+37B485OYbIW0g7EnkN/sHK6rlzwpxFyxvV3bOwZmVdyaF2fH/Hk1mk6Yhuh3wMJo2+Bi94i+9N9ynuYfacUeLY4GBjdmURSTDYLgYGM5GiCx0F2OBgYzGHBzHvw7kWgn6P8AxNgYGJXIDR13xwVwMDCGFWFV9g/v5YGBgAKBdx78CVQL95/xwWBhAc1gacHgYYBacDTg8DAANOBpwMDAAWnCmUkIKkeY5gEH4HbAwMAHWXcjxwMDAwAf/9k=)
书中对世界各国的未来命运逐一做了预测,自然也无法忽略强势崛起的中国。我把作者对中国的预测称之为中国崩溃论2.0。中国崩溃论1.0主要是基于政治制度的判断,认为专制无法战胜民主,专制制度的弊端一定会影响经济发展,造成发展瓶颈。从其诞生之日到现在二十多年的时间,中国崩溃论1.0实质上已经破产。中国已经是世界最大工业国,GDP世界第二,海军像下饺子一样[
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)
一个国家所处的地理位置,无法改变。而人口趋势一旦形成,也是极难扭转。所以我们看到作者的这两项工具:地缘政治学和人口统计学,实际就是以地缘和人口趋势这两个不变,来应万变之国际政治经济,以求预测未来趋势。也正是从这两个角度,作者对美国的未来充满乐观。这种乐观是现在美国非常少有的!无论左右,现在美国人都很悲观!特别是面对中国的竞争。作者[
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