幼儿园老师让小朋友们猜谜:它长得毛茸茸,短尾巴,小眼睛,爱吃鱼,这是什么动物呀?股市里的老朋友们也猜谜:回调了20%,领头股走弱,。。。。这是什么呀?昨天高开,收盘略为拉回,维持住多半涨幅。因为是12月第一个交易日,构成月线往上的缺口。在牛市里,月线往下的缺口一般要补。如果反过来思维,月线往上的缺口要是回补,看着有点像熊市的味道。而今早低[
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周末G20峰会出消息,中美暂时停止进一步增加关税。股市当作利多解读,现在期指大涨。仔细看看协议,就知道不是那么简单。这是一个90天的缓期,中方作出较大让步、减免关税大量采购,美国只是没有从10%增加到25%而已。90天后能谈拢吗?没戏,据说有几十项东西要谈,时间不够,有些东西中方不会让步。因此到明年二月底,市场能得到的最好结果就是继续延期、继续谈判[
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今天微幅低开,继昨天低开、盘中见绿后,再次给出一个犹豫的盘势。昨天SP下午反弹到200天均线后掉头,是经典的TA表现。如果今天收盘依旧小涨小跌,那就守住了周三的600点大涨。这在10月11月,已经是很不错的表现了,也印证了反弹有腿。周末G20乃大事件,构成时间标杆。此前市场处于观望,VIX等相对高启。时间标杆后无论结果如何,VIX都应该下来些,option的风险溢价缩水[
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加州下雨,满街积水,甭开车出去了。弄杯茶,拿块熊爪酥,看看盘。
大涨次日一般不会有全天低于前日收盘点位,因此今日指数有见绿的时候。话虽这样讲,本轮下跌有好几次破了这个规律,暗示给老牛市的病症加了一个症候(即大涨次日出现全天走低,对牛市不利)。更大的一个警讯发生在上周,有两条。第一,上周全周低开低走,周线留往下的缺口。这在牛市实属罕[
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最近出差,业务繁忙。感恩节周末也在外边,火鸡没吃,带人喝了早茶、应付了几场饭局,周末爬了12英里的山(四小时)。股市从上周以来比较衰。上周一苹果开门黑,发布预警。此后有关它的利空不断,其股价跌破186的牛熊分界线。因为苹果是权重股,其战略地位非同一般。好比GM等大的汽车公司,不光公司自身,还养活一堆供货商、配套服务等。苹果市值到trillion,背后[
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上周四开始出差,一直在外两周,不怎么看盘。本周以来盘势弱,现在周线面临留往下的缺口。今天节前,周五开半天,交易清淡,弄不好这个缺口做实了。苹果等出警讯在预料之内,消息出来比预想早,它等于出季报预警。下个月其它科技公司会有类似预警出现。出来这样多利空,利多因素不可否认: 本轮下跌科技股领头,SP下跌一般、尚且稳健。指数下跌同步性不好,不[
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少爷家做饭,少奶弯腰从烤炉取叉烧鸡翅。少爷盯着那美丽的臀部出神,寻思:股市到底了,好漂亮的底。
昨天股市高开后振荡走低,收盘小跌,指数同步性欠佳。最近总有利空释放,先是苹果供货商等出消息,再是油价跌跌不休。油价跌导致股市起不来,但是油价连续十几天下跌后面临剧烈反弹,股市可能联带涨。到昨天为止,除了NAS之外,其它指数四连跌。有人认为几[
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小仓,NAS在721X附近触发。这样做是把今天看待成补上周三大涨的缺口。如果成功补缺口,后市看涨,再次上测100天均线。
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英文的熊是bear,比它更古老的拉丁文是ursa。看着是不是眼熟?美国非浪得虚名,多一个R(耳朵),就是大熊。那美国股市还涨的起来?
上周三股市大涨,周四小跌,周五跌幅大。周五的下跌据说中国等数据疲软,引发了经济前景的忧虑。人呐到了中年,有时候一早醒来坐在发愣、懒得动(尤其女人),自己发问:人这一辈子有啥意思?说轻了是中年危机,说重了是精神[
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)
薛定谔的猫是物理学的一个著名的思想实验。它是这样的。把一只猫关在一个封闭的铁容器里面,并且装置以下仪器(注意必须确保这仪器不被容器中的猫直接干扰):在一台盖革计数器内置入极少量放射性物质,在一小时内,这个放射性物质至少有一个原子衰变的概率为50%,它没有任何原子衰变的概率也同样为50%;假若衰变事件发生了,则盖革计数管会放电,通过继电器[
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