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Where is gold heading?
(2009-01-30 14:17:47)
2009-01-30
Goldisalltheragesthesedays.
Let'stakealookatthebull'sarguments:1)safe-havenbet:wheneverthereisfinancialturmoil(lotsofthemlately)orgeopoliticalconflict(Gazastripinvasionrecently),Yellowmetalisshining.2)Fed/TreasuryandCongressarespendinglikenotomorrow(allthebailoutandstimulus)andfloodthesystemwithvastamountofliquidity.Theendresultisinevitablyinflation.Goldisthebestinflationhedge.3...[阅读全文]
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Is \'buy and hold\' easy?
(2009-01-22 09:02:15)
(clickherefortheoriginalpost)
Onthesurface,"BuyandHope"isdeceivelyeasy.Youjustbuythestocks/mutualfundandstackitunderthemattressandforgetaboutit.Keepdollaraverageinvesting,thetimewillworkthemagicandin15-20yearswhenIwillretire.DOWisupto30000andIamdoneandlivehappilythereafter.NotthatIamhappytoplayspoilerhere.Butletmepointoursomethinghere:1)howcanyoubesosurein15-20years,DOWwillbeupto3000...[阅读全文]
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GOOD VIX Work! But...
(2009-01-22 07:56:21)
(clickherefortheoriginalpost)
becarefulnottoreadtoomuchintooneindicator.Thereisnoinfallableindicatornomatterhowitpreciselypredictthelastmarketbottom.
Justtooffertwocounterpointshere:1)VIXcanspikeupagainfromhereandbreakthedowntrendlineyoudrewconnectingearlyOct'08andlastNov'08.2)evenifVIXtrendingdownfromhere,pricecanstilldriftlowerbeforeitspiketothedownside,atwhichtimeVIXwillreactviloentlyto...[阅读全文]
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AAPL up 10% AH, can the market rally from here?
(2009-01-21 18:37:08)
2009-01-21Wednesday.Wow,whatadifferenceahalfdaycanmake.JustafterIputmyoriginalpostoutshortlybeforenoonEST,marketralliedandralliedhard,evenwithoutAAPL’searninghelp.Andguesswhat?Afterhour,AAPLcamethroughanddeliveredagain.Itjustdidwhatitalwayshasdonebeforeandbeattheearningestimate.Bigdeal!(yawn).Onlythatthistimearound,expectationissolowthatthisquarter’snumberisreallyashotinthearmforthebull.AAPLisup...[阅读全文]
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Myth buster: Does “buy and hope” work?
(2009-01-21 13:09:27)
2009-01-21,Wednesday
Youmightwanttopointoutatypointhetitle.Itshouldbe“buyandhold”,whichisthepropagandaofthewallstreetso-calledexperts.Afterall,weSHOULDallsaveforretirement,investforthelongterm,don’ttrytotimethemarket.Dollarcostaverageisthebestwaytoparticipateinthemarket.Thehistoryisonourside.Ofalltheassetclasses,stockconsistentlyoutperformed.Hundredsofyearsofhistorytellusthatstockconsistent...[阅读全文]
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Now that dow 8000 is broken, what is next in store?
(2009-01-21 11:10:32)
2009-01-21,Wednesday
Marketdidwhatitissupposedtodoyesterday,brokethe8000levelonclosingbasisonsecondtryatthe,getthis,muchhypedinaugurationday.(seelastfriday'sentry:WillthebottomofDow7500hold?)NotthatIdon'tlikethenewpresident.Marketforcehastorunitscourseeveninthefaceofhistoricevent.Talkaboutrespectingthemarket.
Marketisveryoversoldintheshortterm,wealsohavesomehighprofiletechearningtodigest:A...[阅读全文]
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Will the bottom of Dow 7500 hold?
(2009-01-16 10:42:09)
2009-01-16,FridayWillthebottomofDow7500hold?Theburningquestionininvestor’smindnowadaysisthatiftheNov20stockmarketlowhold?Haveweseentheworseyet?TheshortanswerisNO.ThemarketmadetwoimportantlowssincelateNov:dow7500onNov20anddow8000onDec2.Ifdow8000isbrokendecisively,itwillexposedow7500forbeartoattack.Youmightquicklypointoutthatyesterdaythemarketbroken8000(7949tobeexact)andrallyintraday.Itwasasuccessf...[阅读全文]
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intermarket realtion between oil price and equity market
(2009-01-16 10:41:18)
2009-01-16,FridayOnceuponatime,oilpriceisinverselyrelatedtoUSequity/stockmarketprice.whenoilpricegoup,stocktraderwillbescaredofinflationandselloffstock.whenoilpricegodown,stocktraderwilltakecomfortoflowinflationandrallythestock.
ThisrelationmaintainuntillastJulywhentheoilpricepeakaround$147.Youcanseethishappenednotlongago,butsincepeopleinfinancialmarkethasshorttermmemory,itseemsagesago.henceon...[阅读全文]
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Not a good time for Real Estate Investment, YET!
(2009-01-16 10:39:18)
2009-01-15,ThursdayThisstockbearmarketisonlypassoneyearold,butitalreadyrivaled,ifnotsurpassed,thewholedamageof2000-2002,1980-1981,1973-1974bearcaused.Somytakeisthatitwillmatchthemotherofallbearmarketof1929-1932whenallissaidanddone.Thatis80-90%downfromthehigh!
OK,whydoesthathaveanythingtodowithRealEstateInvestment,youmightask?Stockmarketisveryliquidinvestment,whenpeopleneedcash,theysellliquidin...[阅读全文]
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