at3.31.At3.31,dividendrateforakfis45%.Nextexdividendrateis12/15,paydayis12/31.
Belowiscopiedfromyahooakfmessageboard:
Atunder$3/shr,theyieldisover50%.
Obviously,theriskofinsolvencyisanelementoftheprecipitouspricedropinbothAKFandAKT,butcanthatexplainitall?
Personally,I\'mguessingthattheppsdropisduetoforcedsellingbyinstitutionsthatcannolongerholdthislower-rateddebtasaresultofMoodysan...[阅读全文]
Longterm Investing
A place to put my posts
博文
(2008-12-04 08:50:56)
(2008-12-03 23:38:22)
Reasonssimple:pricewellunderitscash/pershareofabout$3.3,lightbusinessmodel,onlinecasinobusiness,(divertingmoneylosingonlinepokerbusinessnow),itisatmaximumheadwindnow:a)USbanofinternetgambling,b)movingtoEuropefromCanada,notawisemove,c)pokerbusinessbrokedown,d)currencyhedgeloss(orlackofhedgebecauseitreportsinUSdollarwhileconductbusinessinEurope).e)currenteconomycrisis.Icouldnotimagineanythingcouldbe...[阅读全文]
(2008-12-03 00:44:14)
fromFDAadvisorycommittee(orsomethinglikethat)on12/10/2008.ItisabinaryeventandIamgoingtobetonit.IfIlose,60cents/share,andIhaveanotherchancecomingseveralmonthslaterforrealFDAdecision,IfIwin,Ithinkitwouldbebetterthan60cents/share.PlusIthinkoddsoffavorabledecisionwillbegreaterthan50%.
Itisjustmypersonaldecision,notsuitableforanyonewhodoesnotfollowACUS.Ifmybuyorderfulfilled,Imaysellbefore12/10ifIha...[阅读全文]
Itisjustmypersonaldecision,notsuitableforanyonewhodoesnotfollowACUS.Ifmybuyorderfulfilled,Imaysellbefore12/10ifIha...[阅读全文]
(2008-12-02 09:33:33)
多么“懂事”的母亲，太过“懂事”了！做一个中国人，扭曲啊！死了唯一的孩子，还要感谢，被关进疯人院，都没提一下。
那些被杨佳杀死的警察该死，因为他们是专制机器的代表。他们的工作保证了国家机器的正常运行。当国家机器与人民发生冲突，他们就成了牺牲品，虽然他们没有恶意。当年那些国民党士兵也没有恶意。很多都是贫民，是共产党要解放保护的。但是[阅读全文]
那些被杨佳杀死的警察该死，因为他们是专制机器的代表。他们的工作保证了国家机器的正常运行。当国家机器与人民发生冲突，他们就成了牺牲品，虽然他们没有恶意。当年那些国民党士兵也没有恶意。很多都是贫民，是共产党要解放保护的。但是[阅读全文]
(2008-11-30 10:23:48)
Asstockswentdownwavebywave,everywavelooksthesame.Buttheyaredifferentunderthehood.Iwouldstressthattheguyswhodaretobuyatthelastwavefacingcollapsingmountaininfrontoftheireyesareusuallylongterminvestors,theyaredifferentfromthosespeculativeinvestors,onlytwothingscanmakethemtosell,aworsethanexpectedeconomy(whatcouldbeworsethancurrentprojectionofeconomy?)oragreaterbargainsomewhereelse.Soinvestorswhobuyfo...[阅读全文]
(2008-11-17 08:34:25)
happen,notafter.AfewChinese\'sbehavioronthisforumisnotthatencouraging,alltheyareinterestedaretomockothers,showingofftheirintellectsupremacy.Weareheretomakeeachotherrichandsuccessful.ItakeprideinMiatasafellowChinesereadytohelpothers.Iamproudofotherregularcontributorstothisforumtoowhoprovidesmuchneededinformation,genuineinsightandfeedbacktoevolvingeconomy.
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(2008-11-17 08:04:29)
Ihavebeenquietrecentlyaboutmyfavoritebondinsurers.IamnotsurehowtheneweconomydevelopmentaroundOctwillaffectthem.Iwasreallyworried.Thirdavenuehasnotpublishedtheirletterstoshareholdersyet,maybetheyareintrouble,justaspeculation.
ButIfoundouttoday,MBICEOresumeshissharebuyingafteracoupleofmonths\'silence.Ifeelsmuchbetternow.Ago\'snewsofacquiringFSAalsoshowsAgo\'sfinancialstrength.ABK\'sdisappointing...[阅读全文]
ButIfoundouttoday,MBICEOresumeshissharebuyingafteracoupleofmonths\'silence.Ifeelsmuchbetternow.Ago\'snewsofacquiringFSAalsoshowsAgo\'sfinancialstrength.ABK\'sdisappointing...[阅读全文]
(2008-11-06 09:41:25)
boughtat1.23andothersinmyretirementaccountsatpricesmaybearound3(forgot).
IthinkIhaveamisconceptionaboutliquiditycrisisondowngrade.BeforeIthinkoncedowngraded,abkisshortofabout2-3billionsoncollateral,ifitcan\'tgetacashinfusionfromoutsidehelp,itneedstofilechapter11forprotection.ButIjustrealizedthatabkhasenoughliquidity,itisitsfinancialserviceunithasliquiditycrisis.Iwassurprisedatabk\'ssharepricep...[阅读全文]
IthinkIhaveamisconceptionaboutliquiditycrisisondowngrade.BeforeIthinkoncedowngraded,abkisshortofabout2-3billionsoncollateral,ifitcan\'tgetacashinfusionfromoutsidehelp,itneedstofilechapter11forprotection.ButIjustrealizedthatabkhasenoughliquidity,itisitsfinancialserviceunithasliquiditycrisis.Iwassurprisedatabk\'ssharepricep...[阅读全文]
(2008-11-05 06:49:04)
foragotomorrow.
Justfinishedlisteningtoabk\'sCC,theearningreportisworsethanwhatIthought,soIcutlossat2.78on1/3ofmyposition.itis1/3becauseorderisnotcompletelyfilled.IamstillpositiveonMBIandAGO.
Ineedtothinkmoreaboutthis,justareminderthatabkandmbi\'sinsuranceonlyinsurestimelypaymentofprincipalandinterestowedtobondinsurers,sounrealizedlossthoughbig,itcandragsfordecadestorealizeallthoselosses.A...[阅读全文]
Justfinishedlisteningtoabk\'sCC,theearningreportisworsethanwhatIthought,soIcutlossat2.78on1/3ofmyposition.itis1/3becauseorderisnotcompletelyfilled.IamstillpositiveonMBIandAGO.
Ineedtothinkmoreaboutthis,justareminderthatabkandmbi\'sinsuranceonlyinsurestimelypaymentofprincipalandinterestowedtobondinsurers,sounrealizedlossthoughbig,itcandragsfordecadestorealizeallthoselosses.A...[阅读全文]
(2008-11-04 09:37:27)
isinsiderbuyingandthirdavenue\'sanalysis.Iamanxioustowaitforthirdavenue\'squarterlyreporttocomeout,itcameoutlastyearon10/30,butnotoutyetforthisyear.
ABK,MBIwereattackedfirstbyshorts,buttheyarestillstandingafternearlyanyear,someofbanksweredeadshortlyafterattack.Thisshowssomeresilience.Thereisnobankrunforinsurers,atmostyoucandoistostopnextpayment.Ofcourse,postingcollateralcanmeanaliquiditycrisis...[阅读全文]
ABK,MBIwereattackedfirstbyshorts,buttheyarestillstandingafternearlyanyear,someofbanksweredeadshortlyafterattack.Thisshowssomeresilience.Thereisnobankrunforinsurers,atmostyoucandoistostopnextpayment.Ofcourse,postingcollateralcanmeanaliquiditycrisis...[阅读全文]
