GS的分析师说的$200Oil是有耸人听闻之嫌。但是他说的是今后两年。还真有人借机哄抬油价，谋取暴利。
TA上，OIH五波上涨已到头，$205是转折点，如不能突破，则是好的空点。
为安全起见，可以买等量STPcall做hedge.Solarpower被油带起后，并不和油股同步，而会自己走一段。
FA上，美元虽然疲软，但Fed减息周期已近完结，commodity(Especiallyoil,andmetals)的狂飙会有调整。为最后一[阅读全文]
苍海泛舟
方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨
博文
(2008-05-06 11:07:21)
(2008-04-12 01:05:22)
最近Travel了两次，没到坛子上来了，还有人念叨，心存感激，还是真诚的人多啊。至少我的目的是帮人，如有人能体会到，也算没白发贴。回顾过去的几个月，几个重要的拐点都没有算错。有心人也许早就体会到了。去年十月Dow14000高点后，就曾提醒大家，股市已近高点，调整在即。今年一月初，特地写了一贴，介绍了11种超反向基金，让大家有机会在熊市中以攻为守，获利取[阅读全文]
(2008-03-20 01:25:23)
From2/28to3/10thereareseveralnewGoldETFsestablishedinAMEXfortrade.
DGLGoldlong
DGPGoldDoublelong
DGZGoldShort
DZZGoldDoubleshort
BecausethosearenewETFs,theperformanceisnotstableandthetradingvolumearestillslim.
Here'showthenotesfaredfromtheirlaunchonFebruary28throughMarch10:AprilGoldLongGold(AMEX:DGL-News)DoubleLong(NYSEArca:DGP-News)ShortGold(NYSE:DGZ-News)DoubleShort(NYSE:...[阅读全文]
DGLGoldlong
DGPGoldDoublelong
DGZGoldShort
DZZGoldDoubleshort
BecausethosearenewETFs,theperformanceisnotstableandthetradingvolumearestillslim.
Here'showthenotesfaredfromtheirlaunchonFebruary28throughMarch10:AprilGoldLongGold(AMEX:DGL-News)DoubleLong(NYSEArca:DGP-News)ShortGold(NYSE:DGZ-News)DoubleShort(NYSE:...[阅读全文]
(2008-03-20 00:52:19)
虽然大盘近底，但在大盘稳固建立地盘并稳定上升之前，仍会在大范围中调整。因此交易还以快进，快出为宜。大盘在今后两天，仍会下调，建立地盘。现在仍坚持3/24是重要拐点的观点。但过了此点，向上的趋势仍然艰难。会有一段区间震荡的时期。然后才会有较明显的上涨趋势。石油的回落，会促进近期大盘的上涨。[阅读全文]
(2008-03-19 09:07:01)
果不出所料，黄金，石油今天开始大幅回落。黄金至少要有10%的Correction.下一个主要支撑为$880-885.$910是个次要支撑，看来停不住。再往下就是850-860。黄金没有好的Vehicle做空，只好买AEM的puts了。看来也不错。黄金长期看好，两年内会去$1600.当前只是Correction,完事后，会创造买入的机会。
石油也许要到$90以下才停的住。上周油品库存增加已经打下伏笔，前天石油已经破局[阅读全文]
(2008-03-18 19:24:29)
石油和黄金都已经呈现筑顶的迹象。皮弱的美元是促使黑金和黄金在过去几个月中持续爆涨的主因。原油今年以来已经上涨了60%，黄金更从年初的820一路高歌，在几天前破了千元大关。没有明显的Correction.今天Fed的决定在一定程度上触发黄金的回调。FED虽然减了0.75,但在谈话中重提通货膨胀的威胁，预示着Fed今后减息的行动会变得谨慎。这无疑是对石油和黄金的利空因素。[阅读全文]
(2008-03-18 18:16:57)
Itisaglorydayforthebulls.It'snotbecauseFed'sdecision,actuallyFedjustdidawrongthingagain,whichwillhurtUSeconomylater.(Fedshouldnotcutrateatallconsidertheextremelyweakdollar.)Today'srallyisduebecauseofwavestructure.Itexpressedasextremebearishsentimentandoversoldcondition.ItisdueforastrongbounceregardlessFed'sdecision.Butitisalsotruethatthiskindofbounceneedsconsolidationtobecomesustainable.Inthenextf...[阅读全文]
(2008-03-18 11:20:26)
上周五就准备写一篇，也准备好了图，拖到今天还没空把它写出来。只好从简了。几周前就说过大盘进入最后的“TouchDown",最后的一波会非常猛烈和持久。大盘会创新低。现在看来预测基本上是对的。Naz在3/10和昨天创了新低分别为2168和2156。S&P也在昨天反弹前创了1256的新低，破了1/23的1270的纪录。三大指数中只有Dow还保持着1/23的低点。从TA波段分析的时间和空间上看，都[阅读全文]
(2008-03-17 07:55:23)
JPMogenfinallygotBEARatunbelievableprice:$2/shr.The5thlargestInvestmentBankwasonsupersale.ThedealalsoincludesBearSteamsmidtownManhattanheadquarterswhichisaloneworthmorethan236.2mils.--theentireamountthatJPMogenpaidtotakeoverBearSterns.Whatapitstoryitis.
BearSteams'midtownManhattanheadquartersworth1.5Billion
JPMogencouldpay100timesmoreifitdothisdealoneyearago.AndItneedtopay20timesmorei...[阅读全文]
(2008-03-04 09:01:21)
AsIsaidlastFriday,MarketcontinuethedowntrendandheadtotheJanuarylows,ItisverypossibletocreatenewlowsbasedonTAandSAofcurrentmarketsituation.Friday'sjobnumbercouldbefatal.Itisamakeorbreakdeal.
MarketmaytakeabreakonWednesdayorThursdayandwaittheimportantnumber.Ifjobnumberhassomeimprovefromlastone,marketmaycalmforafewdays.sincetheexpectationislow,itisnotimpossible.Butifitshowsanyworseningsign,thatco...[阅读全文]
MarketmaytakeabreakonWednesdayorThursdayandwaittheimportantnumber.Ifjobnumberhassomeimprovefromlastone,marketmaycalmforafewdays.sincetheexpectationislow,itisnotimpossible.Butifitshowsanyworseningsign,thatco...[阅读全文]
