pediatrician2 - 博客

(2009-02-18 14:43:15)

现在的美国不仅是金融出问题了，跟严重的是精神也错乱了。当年8国联军向亚洲输送鸦片。现在亚洲象美国输送美元绿色鸦片。搞得美国都得意忘形了。在最HIGH的时候，人家不给了，抽跳板了就会毒瘾大发作而死亡。无药可治。
也不知道现在的美国人是啥回事，好逸恶劳，大大地超过自己能力消费。垮了就找政府赖皮。
“你爷爷的给不给，不给老子就bankrupt！“
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2009 元旦随笔

(2008-12-31 00:21:05)

时间过得真快，又到了那个时候了。在展望2009以前，先回顾一下2008。
（1）我在2008元旦随笔时给2008已经定调-RECESSIONALREADYINTHEBAG.
原文在此：
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=tzlc&MsgID=80620
（2）在如火如荼的石油疯狂中，我发出了狂言“不到年底，油和油正相关的东西全部死光光”。
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200806&postID=33590
其实(2)和(1)是同一个问题...[阅读全文]

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2009 元旦随笔

(2008-12-31 00:08:13)

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股市真刺激呀！！赚钱真的不难，条件是：RESPECT FACTS.

(2008-12-29 00:31:16)

=======
recessoinisalreadyinthebag.用屁股思考都可以
来源:pediatrician2于08-01-0409:35:35[档案][博客][旧帖][转至博客][给我悄悄话]
FIGUREOUT.
TheonlyindustrieswhichareNOTinrecessionareaselectedsegmentationofhightechandoil.Ifothercoreindustries-namelypharmaceuticals,financials,manufacturingetcarealreadyinrecessionforawihle,howlongthetechindustrywhichsimplyprovidesoptionaltoolsfor...[阅读全文]

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Oil may have one last wave of uptrend. when you

(2008-07-29 10:38:26)

seeoilstockpricegapsupforafewsessionswithhugevolume,thatistheendofthisgameforawhile.[阅读全文]

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谁要是再叫嚣“FREE MARKET"我就跟谁急！呵呵。

(2008-07-23 16:22:19)

资本主义，社会主义，民主，半独裁,FREEMARKET,MANAGEDMARKET等等本来就无可厚非。只要适合当地情况，不挂羊头卖狗肉就是好汉。当年香港经济危机时，老美把自己标榜成”真理的上帝“一样，大骂港府，中国政府干预市场。赫赫。这不自己后院起火了。不过香港人没反过来骂。修养还不错。
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another 100B loss for lenders when rescue plan

(2008-07-23 16:22:12)

completes?
AssumingthetotaloriginalloanisXandassumes20%droponaveragefororiginalloanamount.Tobeeligibleforthisrescueplan,lenderneedstowritedownanother10%relativetocurrentmarketvalue.
original:X
after20%marketdown:0.8X
afteranother10%writedownagainst0.8x:0.8*(1-01)*X=0.72X.
dumpall0.72Xtogov.300bplan:0.72x=300b.
X=300b/0.72.
Assumingzerodownpaymentlenderreceived:lenderslo...[阅读全文]

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个人认为最有潜力的是NYX (NDAQ is good as well)

(2008-07-16 17:04:17)

Thiscompanyhasbeendraggeddownbadlywithnormalfinancialcompanies.WhileNYXisinfinancialcategory,itismuchless"financial"sinceitmakesmoneylikeVisaorMasterCardandIPOlistingsandotherservices.Ithasnothingtodowithcreditcrunchdirectly.ItwillbuyoutAmexinAugust1stand1billiondollarannouncedbuybackwillstartwhenacquisitioncompletes.Ithasmonoploybusinessmodelandmadeafewinternationalstrategicacquisitionsrecently.I...[阅读全文]

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negativity is not welcomed in any field of life

(2008-07-10 14:39:51)

probablywiththeexceptionofinvestment/stock.Iamactuallyanoptimisticguyinlifeingeneral.However,Isimplycannotfindanyevidencetosupportoptimisminmid-termUSsituation.Inotherwords,Iamforcedtobeabearspecificallyinstockmarket/housingandIhavebeenenjoyingmyselfbeingabearinthisregard.Thebearishthemarket,themorelikelymydeamof20wto2mcancometrue.MaybeBushcanfinallyhelpmewithmydreambyorderingUSaircrafttobombiran....[阅读全文]

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Last time, the collapse of BSC provoked a powerful

(2008-07-10 12:24:09)

bearmarketrebouncedespitethefactthatUSBetcannouncedbigwriteoffsrightafter.Investorshopedtheworstwasover!whatajoke.
Nowitisthattimeagain.thebellyupofFRE/FNMmaysparkleanotheraroundpowerfulbearmarketrebouncewiththesamehopethattheworseisover.Wewillseeitinnextcoupleofweeksprobably.Thenatsomepoint,westarttoworryagainaboutcreditmarketproblem,oilproblem,ariline/autoindustryproblem.Itisjustsostimulatin...[阅读全文]

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have fun