pediatrician2 - 博客

the current state of stock market is very dangerous

(2009-04-24 11:36:01)

becareful!
whysostrange?
(1)stressbanksshotup400%in6weeks.howmuchofthisgiganticgaininshortperiodoftimeisjustified?
(2)thestockmarketdoesnotresponseto2ndlargestcommercialrealestatecollapse.
(3)thestockmarketisinsensitiveto1blossofFord.
(4)thestockmarketpretendblindeyestowardGMcollaspeandtheconsequences.
(5)thestockmarketiswaitingfor19bankstresstestsresultswhichwillbeinformed...[阅读全文]

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bandaid here and there won't solve serious problems.

(2009-04-21 22:32:34)

whatworriesmeisthatthegovandindustriesdonothaveanylongtermplantosolverootproblems.whattheyhavebeendoingisjustbandaidhereandtheretryingtore-inflatethebubbleinexactlythesamewaywhichcausedthebubble.
thepresidentadvisorsandbigpolicymakersareallfromfamedwallstreetwhichhasseriousconflictofinterestandtherethinkingarehighlycorrelated(theyallthinkinsimilarway,readsimilarecononicbooks,getsimilarfinancee...[阅读全文]

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Officials: Govt. unlikely to take over a big bank zt

(2009-04-19 21:41:06)

开始放话打预防针了。新闻媒体总是搞这些游戏。要么是一些LOWLEVEL的人先放话，要么是“无名氏”官员blahblah（其实不是无名氏，都是有目的的），要么是含糊不清的废话等等。
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Officials-Govt-unlikely-to-apf-14966119.html[阅读全文]

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现在还在赌financial会大涨的人不是疯子就是无脑。

(2009-04-17 11:34:24)

就说是BULLMARKET开始了，FINAICIALS已经涨了100-400%了，也该retrace至少30%了。跟何况"SUCKER'SRALLY“的可能性更大。
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suddenly, no news about big4. Weeks ago,

(2009-04-08 21:28:35)

allnewsmediawereaboutbadnewsfrombig4,especiallyAIG/C.thosenewspushedfinancialstockstoabottomandthengoodnewsreverseddepressedstockscrazily.
Tradingagainstmajornewsmediaisagoodidea.Iamsureatcertainpoint,themarkethastorevisitthoseproblemsagain,probablysoon.
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continue FAS_FAZ double short. 100 simulation results

(2009-04-07 11:56:09)

Iamalsointerestedtolookatthedoubleshortoffas_faz.Idid100simulations.EachsimulationisbasedonrandomdaytodaypercentchangeofIYF(DOWfinancials)between-10%and10%.AtthetimeIdosimulation,IYF=34.76,FAZ=17.18,FAS=6.48.Iassumeinitialinvestmentoffaz_value=100000,fas_value=100000;Welookfortheresultsafter500tradingdaysineachsimulation.
Among100simulations,only4times(hugefinacialbullmarkets)doubleshortswilll...[阅读全文]

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不到弯曲不知道，弯曲RE的确是很特别的。

(2009-04-04 21:30:39)

定义一下：本文所谈的弯曲=半岛和南湾。
特点：
（1）肉太少：区和区之间学区质量相差太大。好区太少。因为质量相差悬殊，想马马虎虎都不行。没有几个稍有钱的人愿意把孩子送到SANBRUNO,DAILYCITYforexample.这种区和区之间的差距在东海岸和中西部是很难找到的。
（2）肉太少（verson2）：加州怪异的PROPERTYTAXLAW和让加州倒闭的MEDICAL的优越性，老家伙们根本都不卖。这[阅读全文]

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这一波熊市反弹不知又拉了多少人进来了。BIG4的问题好像

(2009-04-03 13:28:44)

一夜之间全解决了。NEWS也没有了。这股市真是好玩极了。这是第3次熊市大反弹了。第一次是在BSC倒下，WS鼓吹“theworstisbehindus，cannotgetworsethanthis”。第二次是去年9-10月BUSH刺激方案出台。这第三次就是OBAMATOXICASSETPURCHASE+M2Maccountingrulemodification+G20忽悠。
记录一下，以后好回顾。
peoplewhogotintomarketatfirstrebounceareemotionallyoptimisticpeopleandhavevague,confusingthinking.SotheirIQis...[阅读全文]

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这么激动人心的时刻，这么没人出来冒泡？都忙着数钱？

(2009-03-23 12:40:19)

有毒资产一买下就没事了？如果这么简单，早就该这么做了！就算是银行愿意卖LOAN了，那还要人家愿意借钱啊？怎么刺激老百姓，商业接钱呢？
(1)减税
(2)超低利息，特别是ARM。
（3）精神鸦片：不借钱是LOSER。OPM，不用白不用。借了可以赖帐不还，赚了是自己的，亏了是银行，国家的。
这不是这次危机的再现吗？赫赫，管他呢，赚一波再说。其实政府搞来搞去就[阅读全文]

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ok. lets see who dies first and who laughes last.

(2009-03-18 20:58:31)

Iwillkeepthispost.YEs,theUSgov.willsavebigbanks.Howevertheysavebondholdersnotcommonshareholders.Yes,Citiwilbesaveandyesitsstockpricewillbe0-0.4.
Letsrevisitthisin6months.
goodluck.
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have fun