博文
MKT022207: Fed, “Dark Matter”, and Lin Biao
(2007-02-22 12:59:41)
MKT022207:Fed,“darkmatter”,andLinBiaoIalwaystrytoplace&closemytradesinAM(NYtime)session,whenmktisstillreceivingandprocessingnewinfofortheday.InPM,mkttendstohavegaineditspostureback,andIwouldtrytostayaway,nottohavemyfingersbitteninfoolingaround.Bearsarestillincontroltoday,withhelpofinflationandrateghost.Briefing.comwrites:"Moneyandbondmarketsarejustasconfusedaseconomistsabouttheprospects...[阅读全文]
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MKT 022107: Ghost of Inflation Coming Back to Spoil the Party
(2007-02-21 16:04:23)
MKT022107:GhostofInflationComingBacktoSpoilthePartyJapanCB’sratedidn’tbothermktasmuch,butCPIdid.AsBriefings.comwrites:“Thisonemonthreadoninflationdoesnotsignalanewtrend,orevenunderminethebeliefthatinflationtrendsaremoderate.Itdoes,however,takeawaysomeoftheoptimismthatinflationhasmoderatedtosuchanextentthattheFedwillbeabletolowerinterestrateslaterthisyear.Theyear-over-yearcoreCPInowstandsat2.7%,...[阅读全文]
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MKT OUTLOOK FOR 0221: Will Japan’s Rate Decision Move the Mkt?
(2007-02-20 15:11:01)
MKTOUTLOOKFOR0221:WillJapan’sRateDecisionMovetheMkt?For0221,everybodyisthinkingofJapanCB’sratemove.Butmktseemsnotnervousatalltoday:Yenisactuallydown,andDowclosedupalmost20points,bondsclosedupaswellwithTNXgoingdown1basepoint.Guessingfromthosebarometerreadings,evenJapanCBraisesratetomorrow,itwouldnotmovemktverymuch.Butifnot,wouldbulltakeovertheballandrunagain?Inthatcase,traderhastobecarefulinshort...[阅读全文]
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MKT AM REPORT 02202007
(2007-02-20 09:34:18)
MKTAMREPORT02202007Havingjustclosedmytrades,nowlet’stalkaboutAMMKT.Assaidinmypreviouspost,mktisstillenjoyingitsgoodmoodfromBEN.Notmuchprofittakinginbond,TNXisactuallynowlowerthanitsyesterday’sclose.USDandcommodityisnotchangingmuch,exceptoilisdown>$1to$57.50,goldisdown>12to$660.Goldmovesquiteofteninsyncwithoil,butitismoreofawatchdogoninflationandUSD.Goldactuallydidprettywellthisyear,bouncingoff$6...[阅读全文]
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Market Outlook: 02192007
(2007-02-19 18:23:13)
Thefinancialmarketisnowverybullishonthegoldilockseconomy(mainlyUSandglobaltosomeextent).Onthelongendoftheratecurve,marketisexpectingFedatleastnottoraiserate,ifnotreducingin2007First,bonds,“mindofmkt””onethattellseveryothermarketwhattodo”:Lookingat3monthsdailychartof10yearTreasuryyield,the9SMAcrossedbelow18SMA@02122007,twodaysbeforeBen’stestimony,andthencrossedbelow27SMA@02142007,thedayofBen’...[阅读全文]
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Warren Buffet & George Soros: Who Is in Between?
(2007-02-19 14:41:28)
NoteaboutmylastpostingonWarrenBuffetandGeorgeSoros:Accordingto“dividend_growth”(thanksforthedata),thefollowingisBuffet’sP/Lonhisdollartrades(unverified):2002:297M
2003:825M
2004:1839M
2005:-955M
2006:240M
Net:2246MpretaxNowlet’sstudyWarrenBuffet,GeorgeSorosandthoseinbetween.Forsimplicity,let’sassumeBuffet-typeinvestors(institutionsandindividuals)arebasicallyvalueinvestorso...[阅读全文]
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Warren Buffet or George Soros? Thoughts from My Experience wtih
(2007-02-18 16:57:20)
WarrenBuffetorGeorgeSoros,WhyHedgeFundsEmulateSoros?
--ThoughtsfromreadingInterviewabout“ChinaBuffet”Mr.DuanyongpingAndMyPersonalInvestingExperiencewithHimIntermsofinvestmentperformance,GeorgeSorosisnotevenclosetoWarrenBuffet.Butmostinstitutionalinvestors(particularlyhedgefunds)nowdaysaremoreorlessadaptingaSoros-styleinvestmentstrategy.Astoindividualinvestors,theyareallovertheplaces,rangingf...[阅读全文]
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No Correction For Now
(2007-02-18 16:44:27)
BernankeHelpedMarkettoMakeupHisMind:CorrectionHastoBePostponedforNow

CorrectionOverdue
Technically,acorrectionislongoverdue.AsDickGreenofBriefings.comwrotelastyear,“ThecurrentbullmarketbeganinOctoberof2002.Thatwaswhenthebearmarketof2000-2002endedwhentheS&Phitacyclicallowof769.Sincethen,theS&P500hasrisen81%inalittleover49months.ThemarketwaschoppythroughMayof2003,butsincebottom...[阅读全文]
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Trade with “Statistical Outliers”
(2007-02-18 16:42:03)
TradingJournal02162007:Tradewith“StatisticalOutliers”WhenthereisnotmuchchangesonFA(marketwiseorstockwise)sideliketoday,itwouldbeacompetitivetradinggameamongtraders.The“Competitive”wordIusedheremeansthatmosttraders(eitherasbuyersorassellers)arecompetitiveintermsoftheirIQ,EQandexperiences..Andlikeinanyotherpopulation,thereareafewstatisticaloutliersstandingoutfromthecrowd,thefewreallysmartorlucky...[阅读全文]
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