有感于nullll提到最近的CBOEput/callratio达到最近几年的新高，我想重帖我过去的文章：CBOEequity-onlyput/callratioof0.75orgreater.
这是去年5月17号的文章，当时的QQQQ收盘价是39.22，今日收盘价是42.99,回报率是9.6%(9个月）。注意：这几天的equity-onlyput/callratio都超过了0.75。
CBOEequity-onlyput/callratioof0.75orgreater
来源:not4kids于06-05-1717:25:20[档案][博客][旧帖][转至博客][给我悄悄话]
T...[阅读全文]
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(2007-03-14 15:45:09)
(2007-03-14 13:48:05)
It’sexpensiveforbearstoo
Todaythereisnosurprise:bearsareinfullcontrol.ShortcoversfortraderspushedDowupto12117,andthenbearspushedtheDowdownto11940,thatwaswherebearsstoppedfortoday.Atthatpoint,10Ytreasuryyieldisatabout4.475%,almostalltimelowYTD.So,it’sveryexpensivenowtobuytreasuriesforbearswiththeirnewmoneyrecentlymade.
OneofBriefings.com’sargumentsforcurrentcorrectionisthatthisisalsoaval...[阅读全文]
Todaythereisnosurprise:bearsareinfullcontrol.ShortcoversfortraderspushedDowupto12117,andthenbearspushedtheDowdownto11940,thatwaswherebearsstoppedfortoday.Atthatpoint,10Ytreasuryyieldisatabout4.475%,almostalltimelowYTD.So,it’sveryexpensivenowtobuytreasuriesforbearswiththeirnewmoneyrecentlymade.
OneofBriefings.com’sargumentsforcurrentcorrectionisthatthisisalsoaval...[阅读全文]
(2007-03-13 16:16:30)
任何k线，特别在高位或通道压力线，‘三连阴；空头排列。你就买put。列今天的goog[阅读全文]
(2007-03-13 16:01:19)
Dow12050takenouttodayWithanintradaylowof12036,andIwassurprised,havingclosedmyshortsearly.Ididn’texpect12050tobetakenoutthisfast,withsuchaforceandspeed,abiglong,engulfingandblackcandlestick.Thesuprimemesscontinuedtoscarefinancialmarket,includingCDSmarket:iTraxxCrossover10Y,jumpedupabout2%to313.08anditwas340.88on030507;DJCDXNIjumped1.1%to34.01,anditwas37on030707.So,“riskaversion”isrunningfullstea...[阅读全文]
(2007-03-13 10:18:17)
Dow12050maynotbetoofarfrom“bottom”ofcurrentcorrectionCurrentcorrectionislargelyduetore-evaluationoffundamentals,whichiskindofdoneongrowthdimension,butnotyetoninflationdimension.SoiftheincomingPPIandCPIdataarenottoobad,there-evaluationoffundamentalsmaybeclosetotheend.AsidefromFAside,Citadelsneedtoputmoneysomewhere,and10YTreasuryyieldisnowalltimelowYTDatabout4.5%.Dow’sintra-daylowof12050on030507m...[阅读全文]
(2007-03-12 13:43:09)
WhatwouldyoudoifyouareCitadel?
Citadelisthesecondlargestmulti-strategyhedgefundintheworld,withtheirdailytradingvolumeaccountingfor3%ofdailytradingactivityinNewYorkandTokyo.,10%ofdailyU.S.listedequityoptionscontractvolume,(wikipedia.org)andrecently10%ofmostliquidtreasuries(Bloomberg.com).Citadelissupposedto“stayaheadofcurve”.
IguessCitadelisoneofthosewhoshortedstocksandlongedtreasuriesear...[阅读全文]
Citadelisthesecondlargestmulti-strategyhedgefundintheworld,withtheirdailytradingvolumeaccountingfor3%ofdailytradingactivityinNewYorkandTokyo.,10%ofdailyU.S.listedequityoptionscontractvolume,(wikipedia.org)andrecently10%ofmostliquidtreasuries(Bloomberg.com).Citadelissupposedto“stayaheadofcurve”.
IguessCitadelisoneofthosewhoshortedstocksandlongedtreasuriesear...[阅读全文]
(2007-03-12 11:00:02)
Whycarrystocks?
Correctionisalwaysbears’show,withbullsontrial.Bears’prosecutingquestion:whycarrystocks?
Bulls’answer(mostlyfrombriefings.com):
GrowthRealGDPgrowthwasrevisedlowertoa2.2%annualrateforthefourthquarter.Thatfollowsa2.0%growthrateinthethirdquarter.Consumerspendingremainssteadywhilehousingremainsadrag.Businessinvestmentshouldpickupas2007proceeds.Realgrowthwillprobablycontin...[阅读全文]
Correctionisalwaysbears’show,withbullsontrial.Bears’prosecutingquestion:whycarrystocks?
Bulls’answer(mostlyfrombriefings.com):
GrowthRealGDPgrowthwasrevisedlowertoa2.2%annualrateforthefourthquarter.Thatfollowsa2.0%growthrateinthethirdquarter.Consumerspendingremainssteadywhilehousingremainsadrag.Businessinvestmentshouldpickupas2007proceeds.Realgrowthwillprobablycontin...[阅读全文]
(2007-03-11 13:40:43)
学股中期总结回顾
我们投身股市前后有三年多时间,从最初一无所知到现在初步形成自己的体系,对股市有了初步的认识,有必要对此进行总结.
这是一段很有意义的经历,将对我们未来产生重要的影响.为将来回顾这段历程,我们需要文字记录,记录这段独特的经历.我们也准备将这些经历发表出来,目的如下:
ｌ在这段经历中我们得到许多人的帮助,他们的经验,哪怕是只言片语,[阅读全文]
我们投身股市前后有三年多时间,从最初一无所知到现在初步形成自己的体系,对股市有了初步的认识,有必要对此进行总结.
这是一段很有意义的经历,将对我们未来产生重要的影响.为将来回顾这段历程,我们需要文字记录,记录这段独特的经历.我们也准备将这些经历发表出来,目的如下:
ｌ在这段经历中我们得到许多人的帮助,他们的经验,哪怕是只言片语,[阅读全文]
(2007-03-11 13:29:36)
Twocorrections:then(052006-092006)andnowNote:whenItalkaboutbearsandbulls,Iamreferringtothosemacro-data/macro-investingdriveninvestors/speculators,whomIbelievearethemoversandshakersofthemarket;Ofcourse,theycanbebearsthenandbullsnow,dependingontheirmacroviewsandstrategyatthetime.Thereareofcoursethoselong-term“hardcore”bearsandbulls,andIassumetheydon’tchangetheirviewsandinvestmentpositionsverymuch...[阅读全文]
(2007-03-09 10:18:41)
030907Today(mid-day)andNextWeekToday(mid-day)Today’spayrollnumberisstilla“mixedbag”:It’salittlebitbullish,ifyouwearbull’sglass,andalittlebearishifyouwearbear’sglass.However,neitherofthetwoglassesisthefashionoftheday:Thereisno“hardcore”datapointinthenumber,eitherforbullsorbears.Thatsaid,thereisnotmuchammunitioneitherforbullsorbearstostarttheday:bull’straderspushedupDowasmuchasto12330shortl...[阅读全文]
