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The next 6 months is an “extremely bullish” period
(2007-09-23 21:23:59)
MartinZweigisawellknowmarketguru.Hemadesomuchmoneyinthestockmarketthatheretiredlongtimeago.Inhisbookpublishedin1990,hediscussedinlengththeimpactofFed’smonetarypolicyonthestockmarketperformance.HisstudyshowedthataftertheFedcutthediscountratetwicewithinafewweekstoafewmonths,thestockmarketwouldgetintoan“extremelybullish”period.Duringthe30yearsfrom1958to1988,therewere14suchperiods(totalof9.4years)....[阅读全文]
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Current market status and my plan 9-22
(2007-09-22 11:24:49)
Marketstatusandmyplan9-22
AfterahugeweekfueledbyFed’sratecut,WallStreetmaytakeapausetoconsolidatethegainsinthenextweek.Buttheunderlinepicturesofmoststockswillkeepimproving.Morestockswillbreakintonewground.It’stimetotakeactions.
AfterlastweekcutintheFedFundsRate,thefuturesmarketisbettingonmorecutsinthenextseveralmonths.Currentlytheoddsfora0.25%cutbeforetheendoftheyearstandsat148%,andtheod...[阅读全文]
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目前的形势和我们的任务
(2007-09-18 19:43:50)
TheDowJoneshadthebestdayinmanyyears.Allothermajorindexesperformedequallywell.Alopsideddayliketodayusuallychangesthemarketpsychology.Thebullswilloverrunthebearstotakechargeofthemarketfromnowon.Marketresearchshowsthatthestockmarketoftenmoveshigher1month,3months,and6monthsaftersuchaday.Historyrepeatsitselffrequently.Ihavenoreasontobelievethatitwillbedifferentthistime.Somyoutlookforthemarketisdecidedl...[阅读全文]
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万里江山点点红
(2007-09-18 11:35:39)
Onmywatchlistof250orsostocks,onlyafewsmallareinrednow.
Eventhoughthepre-cautionmeasuresItookearlierthismorningbackfired,it\'sstillgoingtobeablockbusterdayforme.
Fed\'sactionismorethanmostpeopleexpected.Theshortsellershavetocovertheirrearsnow.[阅读全文]
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Fed Watch: Latest Data as of 9/7/07
(2007-09-08 16:17:30)
FuturescontractsbasedonthefedfundsratearetradedontheChicagoBoardofTrade,whereinvestorscanbetonwhattheratewillbeforanygivenmonth.ThefollowingoddsarecalculatedbasedontheclosingpricesofthefuturescontractsonFriday,9/7.
RemainingFOMCMeetingdatesin2007:9/18,10/30&10/31,12/11
CurrentFedFundsRate(FFR):5.25%
CurrentbettingonFedactions:
OddsofFFR@5.00%after9/18:100%
OddsofFFR@4.75%after9...[阅读全文]
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Made many trades today
(2007-09-04 13:16:49)
Mostlyonthesellside.TheonlystockIboughttodayisPENX@33.70.
Sincethemarketmadethebottomon8/16,we\'veseensomenicerecoveries.Butnotallthenegativesareoutyet.Sointhenextcoupleofsessions,wemayseesomemildsellingbymorenervousinvestors.I\'musingtoday\'srunupasanopportunitytoraisesomecashforthepossible2ndlegdown.However,lookingatthebigpicture,Istillbelievetheworstisbehindus,atleastintheshortterm.Andthema...[阅读全文]
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A market full of traps
(2007-08-29 14:16:34)
Yesterday\'sbigdropmadethegainsoflastweeklooklikeabulltrap.Butwithtoday\'saction,itseemswhat\'sreallytrappedarethebears.Theweakholdersmayhavegotoutyesterday.They\'llstayonthesidelinetonursetheirwoundsinthenearterm.Butthebargainhuntersarebackandmaydrivethemarkethigherinthenextfewdays.Statisticallyspeaking,stocksusuallyperformquitewelloveralongweekend.Let\'sseewhetheritwillbetrueagainthistime.
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A look at the big picture: Stocks vs Real Estate
(2007-08-25 11:43:38)
13.4%vs8.6%duringtheperiodfrom1978to2004
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Realestatehaspackedquiteapunchoflate,appreciating12.4%annuallybetween2001and2006,accordingtotheS&P/Case-ShillerU.S.HomePriceindex.Thatclobberedstockprices,whichgainedonly4.3%ayearasmeasuredbytheS&P500.
Butoverthelongrunstockswineasily.AnewstudybyJackClarkFrancis,afinanceandeconomicsprofessora...[阅读全文]
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Feel really sorry for Thornburg Mortgage
(2007-08-20 19:41:30)
Thecompanywasforcedtosellcloseto$20BworthofAAAratedjumbomortgagesat5%discounttoraisecashtoday.Itdidn\'tdoanythingreckless.Butitisstillpunishedhardrecently.
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Thornburgspecializesinadjustable-rate``jumbo\'\'loansofmorethan$417,000.Thosemortgagesaremadetopeoplewithgoodcredit,thoughbecauseoftheloans\'size,theydon\'tqualifyforpurch...[阅读全文]
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Jim Rogers: He was right and he could still be killed
(2007-08-19 15:05:54)
JimRogersmadethefollowingcommentsafewdaysago.HeisregardedasageniusandlookedlikeageniusuntillastThursdaymorning.Butifhefollowsupwithwhathesaidlastweek,hecouldstillbekilled.Investmentbanks\'andcommercialbanks\'sstockswerethebestperformerslatelastweek.WellsFargoevenclosedatanew52wkhigh.Atthismoment,ItrustmuchmoreinWarrenBuffet\'sinstinctthaninRogers\'.BuffethasbeenbuyingalotofBankofAmericastockslatel...[阅读全文]
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