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WSJ8/14/07: Keep Eye on Hedge Funds, Banks
(2007-08-13 22:18:59)
AsMarketPanicEasesforNow,KeepEyeonHedgeFunds,Banks
August14,2007
Yesterdaywasagooddayinthefinancialmarkets,muchbetterthanlastThursdayandFriday.Itseemsthatlastweek'sliquiditypanichasreceded.Investorshaveseencentralbanksatwork,andtheybelievethatmarketswon'tbecrippledbyalackofliquidity.Butsomequestionsremain.Weaskandanswerthem.
Isthereworsetocome?
Possibly.Therearetwomainwaystroubleco...[阅读全文]
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Subprime and hedge funds(by Stratfor)
(2007-08-13 20:45:57)
Theoriginsofthecrisisseemfairlyclear.Traditionally,whenbankslookatmortgagesonhomes,theycarefullystudythelikelihoodthattheloanwillberepaid,aswellastheunderlyingcollateral.Theirrevenueandprofitscomefromtherepaymentoftheloanortheabilitytorealizethevalueoftheloanthroughtheforcedsaleofthehouse.
Twothingschangedthissimplemodel.Thefirststartedalongtimeago.Encouragedbythefederalgovernment,banksthatiss...[阅读全文]
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Brother, can you spare a dime?(by mannfm11)
(2007-08-12 16:41:17)
Thedeflationaryenvironmentdevelopswhenthecovercomesoffwhatisreallythere,whichisactuallyavoidbetweenactualmoneyandcredit.Nottogetintoawildargumentaboutwhatismoney,letssayitisnothingmorethanthemodusoperandiofexchange.Thequestionhereishowmuchofitcanbedeliveredthatactuallybelongstosomeone.Onthelendingside,thevalueofcollateralthreatenstoimplodeasitisreversingtheeffectthatcredithadonitinthefirstplace.Th...[阅读全文]
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The problem is the leverage(by mrre1999)
(2007-08-12 11:51:18)
Theproblemistheleverage.Itstartswiththehome/propertybuyerorspeculator(houseflipper).Hebuysa$300,000propertywithlittletonomoneydown.Amortgageisgeneratedthroughalenderwhogetsfundingfromanoutsidesource.Thatdocumentisnowaninterestbearingnote.Whobuysthatnote?Someonewhoborrowedmoneyat4%orlessandbuysthatnoteyielding6%aspartofatrancheofmorgtages.Thedifferentialintheinterestcreatesyetanotherderivativeoropp...[阅读全文]
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It is all a game of who owes who and who can pay(by mannfm11)
(2007-08-12 11:22:14)

Firstofall,Ithinkyouneedtogetyoureyesoffsubprime.Thisisascapegoatandnothingelse.ItjusthappenstobethefirstguyatthetheoreticalpokertableImentionedabovetorunoutofchipsandtheydidn'tbringmore.Truthisthesearesomeofthebetterloansoutthere,nottheworst.Theyjusthappentobetheworstofthemortgages,butthereissomecollateralbehindthemandsomethingtogetintheend,evenifitdoesn'tgetcloseto100%.
Whathappensincre...[阅读全文]
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“you have ignored me(reality) for too long.” by compsult
(2007-08-12 10:48:27)


compsult
NEW8/12/20078:54:57AM
Thecurrentvalueofdebtisvalidatedwhenitiscalled.Thefuturevalueofdebtcanonlybeestimated,usingthelikelihoodofrepaymentasaguide.
Debthasbeengivenacosmetic(butnotstructural)enhancementbytheratingsagencies.Thatenhancementhasbeeneffectivebecausetherewerenorealitytestsofthequalityofthedebt.Thepow...[阅读全文]
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只有好资本主义才能救中国zt
(2007-08-12 00:52:12)


施化
华夏键侠
注册日:07-03-29
发表数:36
 只有好资本主义才能救中国
施化
从小到大听熟了“只有社会主义才能救中国”的这几代人，眼巴巴地盼望了几十年以后，并没有盼到社会主义，也没有盼到一个得救以后的中国，倒是被越来越多的新花样搞糊涂了。这些花样中自然包括“三个代表”，“和谐社会”和“科学发展观”。新花样们不仅没有正面解释[阅读全文]
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5 key points to keep in mind (BY Rainmaker)
(2007-08-11 23:53:46)
(1)IB'sandhedgefundsareholdingapileoftoxic/junkcreditthatno-onecansensiblyvalue;
(2)No-onewantstohavethiscreditsensiblyvalued,becausedoingsowouldleadtomassivewritedowns/lossesacrosstheboard.Ifyoudon'tvalueit,therearenolosses.Thewondersofmark-to-market,alaEnron;
(3)No-one,atpresent,asidefromtheoccasionalsidedeal(Citadel/Sowood)iswillingtobuythiscreditatanyprice(meaningineffectitsvalueiszero...[阅读全文]
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everything goes into reverse
(2007-08-11 23:26:33)
Cashistheking.Deleveragingissmart.Risk-takingispenalized.McMansionisoutoffavor,andsoisSUV...
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the net worth has to fall for the entire economy(by mannfm11)
(2007-08-11 21:29:31)
Idon'tseejunkpaperinthereanywhere,nordoIseeliensonhelicopters.TheFedisgettingnetworthwhenitgetscollateral.TheMBS'sacquiredwereinvestmentgradeandthebestIcantell,mostlikelyobligationseligibleforFNMApurchase.TheentireagreementyesterdayencompassesassetsthatarewellbelowayearsinterestattheFed.Ifitwenttopot100%,itwouldbecancelledinlessthanayear.
THEREARESOMEOTHERQUESTIONS,THATITHINKMIGHTGOALONGWAYTOA...[阅读全文]
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