(excerptedfromlatesteditionofforcastglobaleconomy)
SincethefinancialpanicoflatesummerSIVshavebeenshutoutofthecommercialpapermarkets.IncomingmonthsSIVsneedtorolloverabout100billiondollarmaturingcommercialpapers.WithnomeanstoraisenewmoneytoredeemthematuringcommercialpapersSIVswillbeforcedtoselltheirholdingsofriskymortgagebackedsecurities.Suchfiresaleswilldepressalreadydepressedpricesofthoserisky...[阅读全文]
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(2007-11-01 22:49:08)
(2007-10-31 20:15:56)
Bubblesimplode.Andthishousingbubbleisnoexception.
WhenGreenspantooktheFedFundsRatedownto1percent(lowerthanthelowestrateoftheGreatDepression),itmeantthatwhatHADBEENthemonthlymortgagepaymentona$150,000housesuddenlybecametheamountofamonthlymortgagepaymentona$400,000house.
Andpresto-those$150,000housesbecame$400,000houses.
Lookatthehighest-pricedmarketforhousingintheU.S.-theSanFranciscoBay...[阅读全文]
WhenGreenspantooktheFedFundsRatedownto1percent(lowerthanthelowestrateoftheGreatDepression),itmeantthatwhatHADBEENthemonthlymortgagepaymentona$150,000housesuddenlybecametheamountofamonthlymortgagepaymentona$400,000house.
Andpresto-those$150,000housesbecame$400,000houses.
Lookatthehighest-pricedmarketforhousingintheU.S.-theSanFranciscoBay...[阅读全文]
(2007-10-31 20:13:56)
Weareinahousingbubbleandithasn'tburst.Historysaysithasn'tburst.HousingstartsforSeptember2007wereaccordingto868,000.Priorto1997,868,000singlefamilyhomeshadneverbeensoldinagivenyearinUShistory.Everydaynewswehearisfiction.Inallyearspriorto1997,thecurrenthousingstartswouldbeconsideredamassivehousingboom,somethingthatwouldsurelyoverheattheeconomy.
Onemustquestiontheworldnewsaboutitfailuretoelaborat...[阅读全文]
Onemustquestiontheworldnewsaboutitfailuretoelaborat...[阅读全文]
(2007-10-31 07:25:04)
从“汉奸”到“人奸”
发布者thchen在07-10-3108:02
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·ｙｏｕｙｕａｎ·
“抗日志士”水城的豪言壮语得到了云帆的透彻的分析。本人只想从做人的基本逻辑来补充几句。在一定的历史和社会条件下，“汉奸”是一合法而且合理的罪名[阅读全文]
发布者thchen在07-10-3108:02
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·ｙｏｕｙｕａｎ·
“抗日志士”水城的豪言壮语得到了云帆的透彻的分析。本人只想从做人的基本逻辑来补充几句。在一定的历史和社会条件下，“汉奸”是一合法而且合理的罪名[阅读全文]
(2007-10-30 05:46:25)
Itbecomesmoreimportantnowtotakedeliveryofwhateverinvestmentsyouhaveinsharesaspapercertificates.Wheneverabrokertellsyouitcannotbedoneitiseitherself-servingorrankstupidity.OnceyoudohavetheminyourpositionDONOTlosethem.
Thebasicgoalnowistoeliminateintermediariesbetweenyourassetsandyourself.Whatdoyoustandtolosebytakingthisaction:afewpercentagepointsinterestandataxadvantage?Yougaintheadvantageofpo...[阅读全文]
Thebasicgoalnowistoeliminateintermediariesbetweenyourassetsandyourself.Whatdoyoustandtolosebytakingthisaction:afewpercentagepointsinterestandataxadvantage?Yougaintheadvantageofpo...[阅读全文]
(2007-10-29 21:14:20)
大学毕业咋都一窝风地都挤银行里去了？LocalAccess打往中国电话卡1.3￠/分种来源:laoyangdelp于07-10-2920:20:40[档案][博客] [旧帖][转至博客][给我悄悄话]
女儿大学读的经济学，毕业以后做投资银行、风险投资应该算是专业对口吧。前几天她们校友开派对，给我看的照片上俊男美女美不胜收。看到小帅哥，出于当妈的本能，俺就情不自禁地幻想挖回家来当女婿。一问那个子[阅读全文]
(2007-10-29 21:02:35)
QuarterlyReviewandOutlook
ThirdQuarter2007
ByVanR.HoisingtonandLacyH.Hunt,Ph.D.
GROWTHRECESSIONAgrowthrecessionisatimeinwhichtheeconomyexpands,butatapaceinsufficienttoprovidejobsforalllaborforceentrants,thusincreasingtheunemploymentrate,accordingtothelateDr.SolomonFabricantofNYUandtheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.Anotherdefinitionofgrowthrecessioniswhentheeconomygrowsatlessthanitspo...[阅读全文]
(2007-10-28 22:53:05)
NealeS.Godfrey,authorof"MoneyDoesn'tGrowonTrees:AParent'sGuidetoRaisingFinanciallyResponsibleChildren,"andchairoftheChildren'sFinancialNetwork:"Stepawayfromthetelevisionandthemagazines.Alltheyservetodoisshowyouhowstupidyouarebecauseyou'vemissedwhateverthey'retalkingabout.It'soldnews.It'salreadyhappened."Theadvicecamefromherfinancialadviser,sherecalls."Iusedtocallhimandsay,'Whydidn'twe...?'He'dsay,...[阅读全文]
(2007-10-28 21:24:14)
1949之后：土改何以要杀人？
发布者siyu在07-10-2807:46
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1949年中共建政以后，在全国发动的第一场运动就是土地改革运动。1950年1月，中共中央发出指示，准备进行土地改革。1950年6月30日，中国公布《中华人民共和国土地改革法》，宣称土改的目的和任务是"废除地主阶级剥削的土地所有制，[阅读全文]
发布者siyu在07-10-2807:46
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1949年中共建政以后，在全国发动的第一场运动就是土地改革运动。1950年1月，中共中央发出指示，准备进行土地改革。1950年6月30日，中国公布《中华人民共和国土地改革法》，宣称土改的目的和任务是"废除地主阶级剥削的土地所有制，[阅读全文]
(2007-10-28 16:37:43)
RE:ValuingTheoriesofinflationsmokey
NEW10/28/200712:05:15PM Wageswouldnotonlyhaveto"rise,andreasonablyquickly."Theywouldhavetoriseunreasonablyhigher.
Theappreciationinhousingpricesadded10-20thousanddollarsofdisposableincomeperhouseholdperyeartotheeconomyyetitjustploddedalong.Thedepreciationofhousingpricesisnowhavingth...[阅读全文]
