Valuationsandlong-termreturns–anupdateTheS&P500hasnowunderperformedTreasurybillsfornearly9years.Thisisareminderthatwhilevaluationsmaynothavemuchimpactonshort-termreturns,evenforseveralyearsatatime,theyareapowerfulandreliabledeterminantoflong-terminvestmentreturns.Thisdisappointinglong-termtotalreturnsincethelate1990'sisnosurprise,andiswithinafewpercentagepointsofthelowreturnthatvaluationsindi...[
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SomeevenSCARIERhousingnumbersrasputin
NEW11/11/20076:33:06AM Man,yagottalovethe“RealEstateIndustrialComplex”,andespeciallythetradeassociationssuchastheMortgageBankersAssociationandTheNationalAssociationofRealtors.Theseguysmake“BaghdadBob”looklikeaparagonofhonestyandvirtue!!!
InapresentationgiveninOctoberatthe94thMBAExpo,Doug...[
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德国人为什么让希特勒上台？
送交者:AM2007年11月10日16:50:44于[天下论坛]http://www.creaders.org
工人贫困时代希特勒起家——民族复仇心理被纳粹利用 德国是马克思主义的故乡，但是德国工人阶级之不幸正如《共产党宣言》所说的那样，他们贫困，而且被资本主义剥夺了个性。第一次世界大战以后的战败地位使德国工人阶级和被雇佣的公薪阶层购买力直线下降，虽然他们[
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interestingbyteqqqbear
NEW11/10/20077:46:04AM TotalMoneyMarketFundAssets(fromInvest.CoInst)jumped$54.6bnlastweek,surpassing$3.0TNforthefirsttime.MoneyFundAssetshavenowpostedanunprecedented15-weekgainof$417bn(56%annualized)anday-t-dincreaseof$619bn(30%annualized).Moneyfundassetshaveposteda52-weekgainof$728bn,or32%.[
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Correction,thencontinuingbullmarketbear_withme
NEW11/10/20079:02:49AM Ifmarketscorrect20to25%andhousingwealthsignificantlydecreased(dueMEWextractionforlast5yearsandspendinglikedrunkensailors),whatwouldpropelnextbullmarketsosoon?AnotherRepublicanpresidnetwithanother2Trilliontaxcutfortherich(forthepeoplethatdontneedit)??
Plus...
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ManyanalystsarewonderingwhyMerrillandCitigroupfirststatedlossestobeoneamountandthencamebackafewweekslaterwithanothermuchlargeramount.Lookingattheabovegraphmakesitatleastpartiallyclear.Whiletheabovechartisthesteepestintermsofadropinthelastmonth,alltheotherindexesshowedsimilarvolatilityinOctober.
Quitesimply,assetsthathadonevalueatthebeginningofthemonthhadanothervalueattheend.Further,manyofthose...[
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hatetosayit,buthousinghasbeenoneofthefunniestsadstoriesinhistory.Thebullsheardasneezeinmid2006andsaidtheproblemwouldbesolvedbyfall.PeoplethathavebeenthroughahousingbustcouldonlyholdtheirbreathandlaughorcryassocalledexpertswereparadedonCNBCtomakethiscall.Ahousingbustandwaitingforittofinishtookmyyouthfromme.Itwasn'ta3monthordeal,butanentiredecadefromcrackstofinish.ThemarketforhomesintheDFWareadidn...[
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Themarkethasfallenfor13straightweeks,shrinkingabout29percentsincereachingapeakof$1.18trilliononAug.8.Thebroadercommercialpapermarketdeclined$15.6billioninthepastweekto$1.87trillion,accordingtotheFeddata..[
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Wherehaveallthedollarsgone?smokey
NEW11/8/20076:58:55PM Wherehaveallthedollarsgone?
Longtimepassing.
Wherehaveallthedollarsgone?
Longtimeago.
Justlastyearthedollarswerehere.
Nowyuppiephrasesofthepastlike"cashflow"arequicklybecomingarchaicexpressions.
Whathappenedtotermslike"nestegg","15%tips"and"Christmasbonu...[
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Greenietalkedcirclesinthe1990's,especiallyaftertheirrationalexhuberancespeech.Onceinawhilehewouldtellthetruthifyoulistenedcloselyandthefinancialpresswouldmissit.Thejokewasthathesaidwedon'tknowthereisabubbleuntilitbursts.ThetruthIheardfromhimin1998whenaskedaboutthemarketwashesaid,inthepastthingslikethishaven'tendedwell.So,hehadtoavoidthebubbleword,thenhehadtomanagethebubbledeflation,whichitneverdef...[
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