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every ingredient in history is lining up for a big one(by mannfm
(2007-11-21 15:52:53)
Thisabouthastobeabearmarketthoughaseveryingredientinhistoryisliningupforabigone.YoucanseethecreditsqueezedrivingtheyenupaseventheEuroisweakagainstit.Theworldneedscreditandthereisn'tany.
ThereisonethingaboutElliottwave.Themovesinthemarketsdon'thavetomakesensewiththenews.WhyonGodsgreenearthwouldthestockmarketsaroundtheworldmakenewhighswhenitwasprettycleartothoseinsidethefinancialstherewasacredit...[阅读全文]
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a peak in commodities short term(by mannfm11)
(2007-11-21 11:25:23)
whywouldyouwanttoinvestinanythingaboutcommoditiesotherthanmaybegold.Thecommercialsareinthisbusiness.Whatwouldyoudowith50,000bushelsofwheatotherthanpaystorageonit?Thesameevenforcopperandasfarasthatgoes,yougettoofarintosilver,italsopilesuptoquiteaweight.Theworldgetstheideathatinvestmentandspeculationarethesame.
Idobelievetherearewealthypeoplethatdoinvestincommodities.But,theyhavehistoryontheirsi...[阅读全文]
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Recession without Romance(ZT)
(2007-11-20 23:02:01)

RecessionwithoutRomance RecessionwithoutRomance
Eventhesmartcontrariansareconfusedbyourpredicament
PaulB.Farrell,oneofmyfavoriteeconomicswritersatMarketWatch,published17reasonsAmericaneedsarecessiontodaytomakethecase,"Yes,Americaneedsarecession.BernankeandPaulsonwon'tadmitit.Andinvestorshatethem.We'realltrappedinoutdated1990swishfulthinkingabouta"neweconomy"and"perpetualgro...[阅读全文]
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The great depression of 2008(ZT)
(2007-11-20 21:02:32)
Thegreatdepressionof2008–themotherofalldepressions ArticlebyPascalMolliere Saturday17thNovember2007,01:46 2008issettobethedarkesteveryearinfinancialhistoryaccordingtoGoldmanSachs–anewreportclaims.
TheTimesreportsthatthecreditcrunchissoseriousthatitmayforcetheUSbankingsystemtocutlendingbyasmuchas$4,000billion,promptinga“substantialrecession”intheUS....[阅读全文]
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中国历史留给中国十四大\'中国特色\' 哲龙博客
(2007-11-19 23:01:51)
中国历史留给中国十四大"中国特色"哲龙博客
 第一个中国特色，（排斥外地人）：
中国的地方语言和外国话差不多，外地人根本听不懂，再加上巨大的民族差别，习俗差别，信仰差别，本地人产生强烈的地方意识情绪和排斥外地人是必然的事情。
第二个中国特色，（内部争斗拼杀不懂友好关爱）：
中国历史就是窝里斗的历史,春秋无义战,战国七国并列,秦汉大[阅读全文]
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专访章诒和zt
(2007-11-19 23:00:25)
专访章诒和：被强制遗忘的四大禁区，我就是“怨妇”
发布者thchen在07-11-1909:17
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亚洲周刊江迅／反右运动、三年大饥荒、十年文化革命、八九六四枪声，合在一起，是被强制性遗忘的四大禁区。仅仅建立文革博物馆是不够的，应建四大博物馆，这才是正视当代历史的科学态度。了解和反思[阅读全文]
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The bigger risk is interest rate risk(by mannfm11)
(2007-11-19 22:06:20)
theonethingthatgetstheseguysisinterestraterisk.Notmanypeoplethatput20%downonahomeeverlosethepropertyanduntiltheentireportfoliogoesunderwater,thesurfacelooksprettygood.Theymightbethefronton$4trillion,buttheyholdthepaperonsomethinglike20millionhomes.Theycouldendupowning20millionhomes.
Theinsurersareinamoreperilousposition.IthinkthebailoutwouldbetherealongtimebeforeithittheGSE's.Houstonwehaveapro...[阅读全文]
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a train wreck or just a hiccup? (by mannfm11)
(2007-11-19 21:57:37)
Areweinthemidstofatrainwreckorjustahiccup?Thelikelylossesoutofsubprimewillandhastakendownsomeinstitutions,buttheyaren'tenoughtofliptheworldupsidedown.Thereisthephysicalcollateral,notpapercollateralbehindtheseloans.Therealestatecrunch,mostlikelyincommercialaswellasresidentialisanothermatter.Itmightbeonlyamodestpercentageoftheeconomy,butitisapercentagethatineconomicsisamultipliedpercentage,meaningit...[阅读全文]
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an eight year cycle down(by surfing bear)
(2007-11-18 22:12:46)
thereismorethanapossibilityofamajorbearmarketinmostassets.Oilmaynotfallbelow$70,buttherestoftheeconomyshouldbeinaneightyearcycledownbecauseof:
1.Creditbubblepopped;
2.RealEstatebubblepopped;
3.Consumerspendinghaslostitsfueldueto1&2;
4.Oilwillremainexpensiveandtaxconsumersmore;
4.Businesswillhavetocutback;
5.TheUSDwillnotbouncebacktoover100;
6.Asiancountrieswillnotke...[阅读全文]
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Whom to blame for the RE bust(by raven et al)
(2007-11-17 18:15:59)

InmyopiniontheREbrokeristhelowestformoflifeonthisplanet.Iftheytoldahomebuyerto"buythehouseregradlessofwhatloanyouhavetogetbecauseitcanonlygoupinprice",whatdidtheyhavetolose?Theywouldgettheircommissionregardlessofwhathappenedtothebuyer.
Thesecondchiefculpritisthebuyerthemselves.They"knew"thatpropertyvaluescouldnotgodown,sowhynotbuyallthattheycould?Afterall,ifyourincomeis$20,000/yearandyouwereab...[阅读全文]
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