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the absolute fantasy Average American Household(ZT)
(2007-12-16 10:10:25)

SOURCE:WashingtonPostanalysisofdatafromtheU.S.DepartmentofCommerceandFederalReserve|GRAPHIC:NeilIrwin,AndreaCaumontandLauraStantonTheWashingtonPost-December14,2007[阅读全文]
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How much deleveraging?(mannfm11)
(2007-12-15 23:16:22)
MauldinissomeoneIusedtocorrespondwithandofcoursesomeonethatwroteabook.Forone,Bullseyeinvestingisamisnomerinthattherehasn'tbeenwidescaleinvestingforagoodpartof15years.Theentiregameisleveragedanditisleveragedbytheveryoutsidethebankingindustryploysthathementions.TheFedisScroomedasRaslikestosay.
Thereisn'tanythinggoingtofixthis.Hementionsdeleveraging.Howmuchdeleveraging?Iwouldsayallofitbecauseitis...[阅读全文]
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the difference between now and the seventies(smokey)
(2007-12-15 23:01:13)
thedifferencebetweennowandtheseventiesisthat,thenwewerestillanetexportingcountry.Oureconomyhadanincome.
Increasinglyinthepasttenyears,ourincomehascomefrom...youguessedit...Debt...andlotsofit.
Ourpersonalincomesinthisnetimportingeconomynowdependoneachothertobuyservicesandimportedstuff.Therefore,asunemploymentincreases,thelossofjobswillbeexponential.
Eventuallythelossofpurchasingpowerwil...[阅读全文]
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a de-leveraging that is unprecedented in the modern era(Mauldin)
(2007-12-15 01:06:54)

From1990untilthespringofthisyear,wesawthedevelopmentofwhatPaulMcCulleycallstheshadowbankingsystem.Non-depositoryinstitutionsandfundscreatedmassiveamountsofnewmoneybasedonleverage.TheFedhaslostcontrolofthemoneysupply,becausethebanksitregulatesnolongeraretheprimarymoversofdebtcreation.Investmentbanks,hedgefunds,SIVs,andascoreofnewinvestmentvehicleshavebeencreatedtofinanceavastarrayof"stuff."Cor...[阅读全文]
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Deflation(minyanville )
(2007-12-15 00:34:02)
minyanville
2.Deflation
TheinflationdatawilloffermorefodderfortheFOMCinflationhawksatthenextmeeting,butinourviewitisultimatelydeflationary,andgoldandthedollarthismorningseemtoagree.
Butwhy?
CheckoutthischartfromtheFedshowingtheadjustedmonetarybase.
Acommonmisunderstandingisthatfallingpricescausesdeflation.
So,lookatthePPIandCPI,they'regoingup,clearlycausinginflation,right?<...[阅读全文]
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The market never does a dance to help the little guy(mannfm11)
(2007-12-15 00:24:11)

WhatiftheycuttheLIBORto1%mannfm11
NEW12/14/200712:33:13AM Mortgagenewsarticleaboutsubprimeadjustables
Inthisarticle,theycoverthetimebombof2/28ARM's.Oneoftheassumptionsisthattheinterestratewouldalwaysgouponadjustment.Itappearstheseloanscarriedanintroductoryrateof7.5%andtrackedthe6monthLIBORplus5.5%.Thus,itappearsweareabouttodoano...[阅读全文]
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Inflationary credit crunch? (mannfm11)
(2007-12-15 00:10:35)

Inflationarycreditcrunch?mannfm11
NEW12/14/20073:56:41PM Thebullshavearealpuzzle.Theyaregettingtheirnorecessionforthetimebeing,buttheFedisprobablygoingtohavetoreversecourseoratleastnotloweranymoreuntiltheyseearecession.Somethingtellsmethenumbersarebeingcooked,butthenagain,iftheyhavebeencookinginflationnumbersforsolong,whywouldtheunc...[阅读全文]
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breakdown of other mortgages will occur(JW)
(2007-12-13 22:14:34)
Inmyopinion,THEFINANCIALSYSTEMHASOFFICIALLYENTEREDCHAOS,withthatchaosmorewidelyrecognizedinyear2008.Tobesure,itisanearlystage.Massivehousinglosseshaveoccurred.Evenmoremassivemortgagebondandrelatedcreditderivativelosseswilloccur.Rewardsarebeingpreparedforthemostrecklessofparticipants.Encourageddestructionofcreditandcreditratingsispossiblyaroundthecorner,sothatmarginalhouseholdscanparticipateinfreez...[阅读全文]
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writedowns have entered a second gear(Jim Willie)
(2007-12-13 21:49:21)

Thisisnotasubprimemortgageproblemanymore.Thedebtratingsagencieswritedownshaveenteredasecondgear,withsomeacceleration.Theyarenotonlydowngradingmassivebankportfolios,theyarethreateningtodowngradethebondinsurerssuchasACACapitalandMBIA,aswellasothers.Whatisahouseorbusinessworthwhenitcannotbeinsuredduetofaultystructures?NOTMUCH!!![阅读全文]
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Annual Purchase Limit For Savings Bonds from 1/08
(2007-12-13 20:22:03)
AnnualPurchaseLimitForSavingsBondsSetat$5,000 FORIMMEDIATERELEASE December3,2007 TheannuallimitationonpurchasesofUnitedStatesSavingsBondswillbesetat$5,000perSocialSecurityNumber,effectiveJanuary1,2008.ThelimitappliesseparatelytoSeriesEEandSeriesIsavingsbonds,andseparatelytobondsissuedinpaperorelectronicform.Underthenewrules,anindividualcanbuyamaximumof$5,000worthofelectronicandpaperbo...[阅读全文]
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