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资金在向美国回流，填补银行资金短缺zt
(2008-01-21 19:32:58)
谢国忠-首先注意两个现象：1。美国银行坏消息连连，资金短缺，收紧贷款。
2。美元在这样的情形下，在FED减息的预期下却在不段走强！（除了对人民币）这两个完全矛盾的现象说明：资金在向美国回流，填补银行资金短缺的黑洞。这个现象应该是从11月开始。[阅读全文]
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Too many people have become complacent about deflation(ZT)
(2008-01-21 18:44:56)
TheWallStreetJournal:Aquotefrom1993
"Historyshowsthatoncenominalgrowthslowsinaheavilyindebtedeconomy,therecanbenorecoveryuntiltheexcessdebtiseliminated.Politicaleffortstoexpanddebtdonothingtolifttheburdenofdebtservice,whichisthecauseofslowgrowthandfalteringincomesinthefirstplace.
"Toomanypeoplehavebecomecomplacentaboutdeflation.Butwatchout.Debthasgrowntoolargetobesustainedoutofcashflow.Ass...[阅读全文]
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12 Steps to the Next Great Depression(ZT)
(2008-01-19 11:34:51)
ThisweekJ.PuplavabeginshisseriesonTheNextDepression,aprobabilityforwhichheassigns90%,assumingthenationremainsonitscurrentcourse.RecommendsMurrayRothbard's"America'sGreatDepression"asexcellentbackgroundreading.Thisbookisfree,courtesyofMises,andcanbeaccessedhere.AnotherauthorrecommendedbyPuplavaisHarryDent,whoseexcerptsfromhisJanuaryNewsletter,"GuideToThenextGreatDepression",isavailablehere.
Hig...[阅读全文]
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U.S. Recession, Chinese Crash(Eric Roseman)
(2008-01-19 07:38:14)

U.S.Recession,ChineseCrash
IftheU.S.economyissofteningthisquarterandheadingintorecession,thenit'sfairtoassumethatotherglobaleconomieswillalsoslow.Theprevailingtheoryofglobal"decoupling"isnonsense.ConsumerdemandinlocalmarketslikeIndiaandChinaremainstoonascentandstilllargelyunsupportiveofadomestic-ledexpansionwithoutaboostfromAmericanexports.
IhaveverylittleconfidencethatChinacanescapea...[阅读全文]
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Sorting Out the New Housing Market(NORRIS)
(2008-01-18 23:12:00)
January18,2008High&LowFinanceSortingOuttheNewHousingMarketByFLOYDNORRIS TheshapeofthenewAmericanhousingmarket—thepost-bubblemarket—isstartingtoemerge.Itisonethatfavorstheyoungwhoneverownedahouseandthebanksthathaveaccesstocheapdeposits.Itmaybeharshestonthetwocoasts,wherebothdistressandanewfoundlackofmobilitymaybeontheincrease.Theidealhomebuyernow—inareverseofwhatwastrueforyears—isarenterwho...[阅读全文]
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A rough day at the hearing :)
(2008-01-18 22:09:19)

Thisisamanwhoisnothappy. 
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Credit Default Swaps: The Continuing Crisis(Mauldin)
(2008-01-18 21:53:58)
CreditDefaultSwaps:TheContinuingCrisisAsnotedabove,Isaidthreeweeksagothatthebigstoryfor2008wouldbethecounter-partyriskforcreditdefaultswaps.ThatstoryiscomingfasterandlargerthanIthought. BillGrossofPimcosuggeststhattheultimatecostcouldbeanother$250billiondollarsontopofthe$250-plusbillioninsubprimelosses.Thatmeanswehaveonlyseenthetipoftheiceberginwrite-offsinthefinancialsector.Therealproblemist...[阅读全文]
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Differences Between Japan and the US(Mish)
(2008-01-18 18:12:39)

MikeMishShedlockJan18,20083:45pm
Prof.KevinDepewwaswritingaboutDeflationAmericanStyleinpointNumber 4ofThursday'sFiveThings:WecontinuetogetfeedbacknotingthesharpcontrastbetweenthewayJapan'sbankshandleddeflationandthewayU.S.banksarehandingthecreditcrunchhereintheU.S.Indeed,bankstodayarequicklywritingoffbaddebtincomparisontoJapan'sbanksduringthatcountry'sbankingcrisis.
Again,therealk...[阅读全文]
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10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE
(2008-01-18 17:04:58)

10-YEARTREASURYNOTE(ChicagoOptions)Range:1d5d3m6m1y2y5ymaxType:Bar|Line|CdlScale:Linear|LogSize:M|LCompare:^TNXvs  S&P  Nasdaq  Dow  [阅读全文]
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Bear market from hell(mannfm11)
(2008-01-17 19:53:35)

Bearmarketfromhellmannfm11
NEW1/17/200812:58:14PM Ihaveseen3reallystrongmarketturningindicatorsoverthepastcoupleofweeksnotwork.Iwouldn'tbesurprisediftheTRINreadingtodaywasn'tover4again,making4timesthishashappened.Ittook3yearsofbearlasttimetogetaTRINreadingover4andthatputinabottom.Ibeganspeculatingearlierthisweekthateitherthismarkett...[阅读全文]
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