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“writeoff recession,”(hussman)
(2008-02-03 21:18:37)
thecurrenteconomicdownturnislikelytofocusitsdamageonassetprices–theU.S.dollar,homevalues,lowandmid-qualitydebt,andequityprices(largelythroughthecombinationofnarrowingprofitmarginsandlowervaluations).Inshort,Iexpectthatweareintheprocessofwhatmightbecalleda“writeoffrecession,”wheresignificantamountsofassetvalueandperceivedwealthwillultimatelybewrittenoff.Therewillundoubtedlybesome“wealtheffects”...[阅读全文]
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SPhousing(ZT)
(2008-02-03 20:42:23)

SPhousingPrevious|Nextstars signintovote votes0 comments0 views1473 Comments Noonehaspostedanycommentsyet… [阅读全文]
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中国人道德沦丧的原因zt
(2008-02-03 20:13:10)
中国人道德沦丧的原因
发布者thchen在08-02-0309:08
　请您惠顾赞助商
鼓励其长期支持CND
QualityBrand!
CNDAmazon
Cameras,Books...
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　刘自立
中国人有没有道德观？这是一个问题。
道德建设是不是可以自外于政治体制和极权主义意识形态，就像我们看到的——只要搞出一种类似空姐的微笑服务，道德建[阅读全文]
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The deleveraging of PMI(mannfm11)
(2008-02-03 17:33:46)
Thetruthofthematteristhetrendinrealestatethatcaughtpeople'sattentionwasputinactionbytheadventofPMIintheearly1970'sandsincethentheinnovationshaveperpetuatedthetrendofmoreandmorequalifiedbuyers.Ifyoucheckhomepricespriorto1970,youwillfindthatmostequitywasacquiredbypaymentofprincipal,notappreciation.Iwouldventureaftertheremovalofthegoldbackingforthedollar,mostinflationhasbeenderivedfromacontinuallybub...[阅读全文]
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triple top of 30-year US Treasury bond(contrarian)
(2008-02-02 08:37:37)

MaybethemostimportantchartwecanthinkofrightnowrelatingtoourconcernsoverTreasuriesliesbelow.Andyes,it’sasmuchasymbolasitisaboutsubstance.Hopefullyithelpsputabitofanexclamationpointbehindthisdiscussion.We’relookingatthe30-yearUSTreasurybondfrom1980topresent.Asyoucansee,we’vetriedourbesttodrawinwhatweconsidertobeacriticalmulti-decadetrendline.Whatisabsolutelyclearisthatthemulti-decadeseriesofrisin...[阅读全文]
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The boomers created this monster, and now they will kill it(ZT)
(2008-02-01 20:26:42)

interestingpostfromanotherboardbearking
NEW2/1/20087:57:22PM
Unfortunately,theglutofbabyboomersisnowmovingintotheyearsapproachingretirement.TheleadingedgeoftheboomersalreadyHAVEretired.Whilethebabyboomgenerationspansmanyyears,itisafactthatpeoplewhoapproachretirementbecomemoreconservative.Theyshunrisk.Theytakemeasurestopreservec...[阅读全文]
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30 month bear puts us in March of 2010(mannfm11)
(2008-01-30 22:26:06)


mannfm11
NEW1/30/20085:18:24PM Ittook30monthstoreachbottominthe2000-2002run,36ifyoucounttheMarch2003bottom,whichwasalittleabovetheOctober2002bottomWehada60monthbullifyoucount10/02to10/07,whichisn'texactlyoutoftherealm.Thetopsof7/07and10/07almostmirrorthebottomsofthesummerof02and10/02.IforgetifthefirstbottomhappenedinJulyorAugus...[阅读全文]
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GM and USA(Hutchinson )
(2008-01-29 06:24:32)

TheUSiscurrentlyinthepositionofGeneralMotorsinabout1970,splendidinitspossessionofamajorityshareoftheUSautomobilemarketandapparentlyinvulnerabletocompetitivethreat,yetinrealityburdenedwithimpossiblewelfareprogramsthatafoolishmanagementhadnegotiatedduringthegoodyears.ForGeneralMotors,thefutureafter1970wasoneofsteadilyslippingmarketshare,from60%oftheUSmarkettoabout25%,ofasteadilyagingworkforce,a...[阅读全文]
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the most likely outcome is hyperstagflation(smokey)
(2008-01-26 22:33:03)
TheFedcannotcreatehyperinflationinalowwageservice/retaileconomy.Easycreditandmonetizationatthispointwillatbestproduceahyperstagflationaryscenariowhereexponentiallyrisingpricesfornecessitieslikefoodandfueloverwhelmtheeconomy'sabilitytoexpand.
Inorderforhyperinflationtooccur,thegovernmentwouldhavetocontinuallyincreasedollardonationstothepublicaspricesriseduetomonetaryinflation.
Sincethisproc...[阅读全文]
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MM and T-bond while
(2008-01-26 11:54:36)

thedebtmarketsareimploding...ray_heritage
NEW1/26/200811:31:56AM ThisweeksconferencecallbyDonCoxeshedmorelightabouthowgravethesituationisbecoming.
Despitetreasyieldsbeingnegative,allacrosstheboard,thereisburgeoningdemandforhighqualitydebt.Parthastodowiththefactthat,intheUSA,71%ofallcorpdebtisnowofjunkquality.Treasuryshavebecomes...[阅读全文]
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