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The danger is the counter parties failing(mannfm11)
(2008-02-12 22:52:15)

Itdawnsonmethatthebanksmannfm11
NEW2/12/200811:31:50AM couldgetfatinaperiodofdefault.Thedangeristhecounterpartiesfailing.Imaginethis,bankwithbadCDO'sgoesinandbuysdefaultinsuranceoninvestmentgradestuffatlowpremiums.Theyhaveagoodreasonformoneytobetightandasaresulttheydrivetheriskofdefaultonthesebondsup.Thisineffectdrivesthevalueofthed...[阅读全文]
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$ from the late 1960s to 2000(Pulplogger)
(2008-02-11 21:55:54)
Thedollar,intrade-weightedterms,tripledinvaluefromthelate1960sto2000.Thattriplingcouldexplainmuchofourlossofmanufacturingcompetitiveness,withoutresorttothestandard"Americansarelazy&unskilled"stories.
I'veworkedwithandtaughtAmerican&foreignengineersfor30years,andfranklydonotseemuchdifference.Therearegreatones,andlazyliars,inbothgroups.Ifanything,I'dsaytheAmericanengineerswereslightlybet...[阅读全文]
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what is going to raise median incomes like in 70s?(jk)
(2008-02-10 21:42:05)
thegreatestweaknessinka-poomtheory.forpoomto"work,"inthesenseofinflatingawaymuchoftheburdenofaccumulateddebt,itrequiresthatthepredictedinflationfinditswayintoincomes,notjustcosts.butthemechanismsforthistransmissionarenot,asyet,elucidated.
inthe'70'sinflationwasnovel,andstrongunionsdemanded-andgot-cola's,costoflivingadjustments,writtenintotheircontracts.thisplayedanimportantroleinboththerecursi...[阅读全文]
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Economic State Of The Union(McMillion)
(2008-02-10 21:23:02)


JoinDate:Jun2006 Posts:1,373 Credits:126,848 EconomicStateOfTheUnion--2008 TheEconomicStateOfTheUnion--2008
byCharlesMcMillion,PresidentandchiefeconomistofMBGInformationServicesinWashington,D.C.
Asweheadintoanotherrecessionandhearpoliticianstellushowrecessioncanbeavoidedwithstimuluspack...[阅读全文]
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When inflation is fed by an expansion of credit(smokey)
(2008-02-10 20:48:59)

"Thenext"bubble"willbeinthepricesofallrealthings.However,thiswillnottrulybeabubble,rathertheeffectivecollapseofthecurrency.Rightnow,physicalthingslikeeggsandwheatareyieldinghigherratesof"return"thanarepaperassetslikebonds,whoseyieldsarenownegative.Whenonecannot"save"inabondandearnapositiverealrateofreturn,onemustseekshelteroutofpaperassets.Thisishyperinflation."
smokey'sreply:
Thereis...[阅读全文]
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New Hitches in Markets(WSJ)
(2008-02-10 20:13:37)
NewHitchesinMarkets
MayWidenCreditWoes
ByLIZRAPPAPORT,CARRICKMOLLENKAMPandKARENRICHARDSON
February11,2008
Awideningarrayoffinancial-marketproblemsthreatenstotriggeranewwaveoftheglobalcreditcrunch,extendingitfarbeyondtheriskymortgagesthathavealreadycostbanksandinvestorsmorethan$100billioninlosses,andpotentiallybruisingtheU.S.economy.
Inthepastfewdays,low-ratedcorporateloans--the...[阅读全文]
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1970s and now(mannfm11)
(2008-02-09 20:44:24)
Ithinkthe1970'swereanincometaxbracketcreep,spiralinggovernmentspending,internationallendingbubble.Reagancameinandcutofftheincometaxtothepointthatthedeficitwentoutofcontrolandtheyhadtocurtailspending.Theinternationaldebtgamewentfromlucrativetobustwithallthemajorlendersthreatenedwithinsolvencyandthewholegamesloweddown.Peoplewereontrendsbackthentoo.Ihaveanideathatalotofgamescangoonaslongastheexcesses...[阅读全文]
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Uncle Sam Crying \'Uncle\'/Bond (Fekete)
(2008-02-09 20:07:17)
UncleSamCrying"Uncle"--PostedSunday,10February2008-byA.E.Fekete
"...wearenotlookingataditchintowhichtheJapaneseeconomyhasstumbled.Wearestaringablackholeintheface,theblackholeofzerointerest.ItcansuckintheJapaneseeconomy.ItcansuckintheeconomyoftheUnitedStates.Itcanevensuckintheentireworldeconomy.Itispoweredbytheregimeoftheirredeemabledollar,andtheFed'spolicyofserialinterest-ratecuts."
Bonds,...[阅读全文]
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that cleansing process must have a chance to play out(LB bear)
(2008-02-09 16:26:02)
Asanation,wehaveoverborrowedandoverextendedourselvesinthepastseveralyears.Wetookouttoomuchdebttobuytoomanyhomesatinflatedvalues.Weboughttoomanycommercialpropertiesatsky-highvaluations.Andfrankly,wemadealotofdumbcorporatedeals.Allofthiswasfinancedwithhigh-riskloansandbonds.
Now,homevaluesarecomingbacktoearth.Now,commercialrealestatedealvolumehasdriedup.Now,manyoftheleveragedloansthatfinancedadr...[阅读全文]
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China and India to fall to pieces(mannfm11)
(2008-02-09 16:01:43)

CalculatedRisk-KrugmanontheEconomymannfm11
NEW2/9/20083:28:36PM I'mgoingtoCalculatedrisktoreadthisone,butheismissingonebubble,thestockmarketbubblesaroundtheworld.Iventure50%oftheearningsofcorporationsworldwidewerederivedfromtheexcessivefinancingintheUS.WhatKrugmanismissingisthatthe1990bubble,whateveritwas,tookdownJapanandAsia.IfJapa...[阅读全文]
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