天下纵横
随笔而已。不必当真。
博文
(2009-04-03 20:10:10)
Thissoundslikeafunnytopic.Ifeverycountryisdevaluingtheircurrency,thennobodywillfall.Right?Wrong!Incurrencymarket,wheneveryonedevalues,thepegbetweenandamongthecurrenciesmaybequasistablewithinarangebuttheweakestarefallingcontinuesly.Incurrentphase,thedeleveragingprocessforcedollartradertobringhomeoverseaspeculationmoneytocovershortsdomesticallymadeUSDtemporarystronger.Itisfoggyformanytoseethrough.Th...[阅读全文]
(2009-03-30 21:21:21)
(2009-03-17 15:53:13)
Toeverythingthereisaseason,andatimetoeverypurposeundertheheaven:
Atimetobeborn,andatimetodie;atimetoplant,andatimetopluckupthatwhichisplanted;Atimetokill,andatimetoheal;atimetobreakdown,andatimetobuildup;Atimetoweep,andatimetolaugh;atimetomourn,andatimetodance;Atimetocastawaystones,andatimetogatherstonestogether;atimetoembrace,andatimetorefrainfromembracing;Atimetoget,andatimetolose;atimetokee...[阅读全文]
Atimetobeborn,andatimetodie;atimetoplant,andatimetopluckupthatwhichisplanted;Atimetokill,andatimetoheal;atimetobreakdown,andatimetobuildup;Atimetoweep,andatimetolaugh;atimetomourn,andatimetodance;Atimetocastawaystones,andatimetogatherstonestogether;atimetoembrace,andatimetorefrainfromembracing;Atimetoget,andatimetolose;atimetokee...[阅读全文]
(2009-03-15 12:04:27)
The780billionStimuluspackagehaspassedtwopoliticalbranchesandsignedintolaw.Nomatterhowanyonetoutsthepackages,theessenceofthepackageisstilldebts-usingnewdebtstopayforolddebts.Itnevergetsdebtspaidofforevenshrinksit,inthiscase,onlyexpandsthetotaldebtsthattheAmericanpeople,thenextgenerationandtheirnextgenerationwillhavetobear.Thus,itimpoverishsthegenerationsaheadanddimsthefutureofrealeconomicalrecovery...[阅读全文]
(2009-03-01 10:50:47)
StevenRoach'sdescriptionofChina-USrelationshipwaslaterbeingnicknamedas"Chimerica".Ithasbeensaidtobeimportanttobothcountries.
Theinterestingquestionishowlongsuchrelationshipwilllast?
MypredictionisthatsuchrelationbuildonexportandrecyclethetradesurplustoUSdebtswillnotlastverylong,probablylessthan3-5years.
Wehavetounderstandthemotivesofeachcountrytosustainsuchfinancialrelationsh...[阅读全文]
Theinterestingquestionishowlongsuchrelationshipwilllast?
MypredictionisthatsuchrelationbuildonexportandrecyclethetradesurplustoUSdebtswillnotlastverylong,probablylessthan3-5years.
Wehavetounderstandthemotivesofeachcountrytosustainsuchfinancialrelationsh...[阅读全文]
(2009-01-28 19:27:11)
Itisobviousthatthepackagewillbepassedthroughtwopoliticalbranchesofgovernmentandsignedbypresident.
Insteadhaleitasavictoryforpoorpeople,itisreallyasomberdayforthem,fortheendofitissoobviousthattheUSwillhavenoforeseeablefuturetoturnthefortnearound.Thehyperinflationisbakedinthestone.
After1929government'sinterventionofmarketandNewDealprolongedthedepression,todaywerepeatthesamefate.USdidnotgeto...[阅读全文]
Insteadhaleitasavictoryforpoorpeople,itisreallyasomberdayforthem,fortheendofitissoobviousthattheUSwillhavenoforeseeablefuturetoturnthefortnearound.Thehyperinflationisbakedinthestone.
After1929government'sinterventionofmarketandNewDealprolongedthedepression,todaywerepeatthesamefate.USdidnotgeto...[阅读全文]
(2009-01-11 20:59:43)
Thisadministrationhasproposedanother800orsobilliondollarstostimulatetheeconomy.Noteventoquestionwherewillthemoneycomefrom,forUShasnobudgetsurplusandthehouseholdsavingsareabysmal,willforeigninvestorslendmorehardearnedcashtofinancetheUSrecoveriesifany?
Soinonehand,governmentinjecthugeliquidityintothesystem,intheotherhand,therunawayinflationstripsofftherealpurchasingpowerassoonasthehelicopterdrop...[阅读全文]
Soinonehand,governmentinjecthugeliquidityintothesystem,intheotherhand,therunawayinflationstripsofftherealpurchasingpowerassoonasthehelicopterdrop...[阅读全文]
(2009-01-06 20:05:56)
(2009-01-02 18:02:42)
Thebottomofhousingmarketiseagerlyanticipated.WallStreet,WXCrealestateinvestorandfinancialmarketaretortingthebottomofrealestaein2009.
Theyarerightbuttheyareextremelywrong.Thedollarbasedbottommayverywellcomeintheendof2009tomiddleof2010.Butisthatabottom?Theansweris:absolutelynot.Absolutelynotbecausepurchasingpoweradjusted,thehousingwillcontinuetocrashsilentlyforaforeseeablefuture.
Sowahtisthe...[阅读全文]
Theyarerightbuttheyareextremelywrong.Thedollarbasedbottommayverywellcomeintheendof2009tomiddleof2010.Butisthatabottom?Theansweris:absolutelynot.Absolutelynotbecausepurchasingpoweradjusted,thehousingwillcontinuetocrashsilentlyforaforeseeablefuture.
Sowahtisthe...[阅读全文]
(2009-01-01 20:03:55)
Mostpeopledonotknowthedifferenceofmoneyvs.currency.Theymostlydonotknowwhatismoney.
Moneyhastwomajorfunctions:
1)Mediumofexchangetofacilitatecommerce.
2)Storeofvalue.
Assoonasmoneydelinkedfromgold,itlostintrinsicvalue.Somoneybecomescurrency,therebyitlostfunctionofwealthkeeping(storeofvalue).
Confusingmoneywithcurrencyhasfataleffects.
1)onehastoconstantly"invest"inordertogain...[阅读全文]
Moneyhastwomajorfunctions:
1)Mediumofexchangetofacilitatecommerce.
2)Storeofvalue.
Assoonasmoneydelinkedfromgold,itlostintrinsicvalue.Somoneybecomescurrency,therebyitlostfunctionofwealthkeeping(storeofvalue).
Confusingmoneywithcurrencyhasfataleffects.
1)onehastoconstantly"invest"inordertogain...[阅读全文]
