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## 5月就业数据官方造假了吗？请看官方数据：5月失业人数3000万，失业率18%，4月20%，3月7%

(2020-06-06 19:44:46) 下一个

5月就业数据官方造假了吗？请看官方数据：

1. BLS 按照传统方法定义的直接的失业人口数是多少？（约=3000万）

If all people who want a job but were not in the labor force were added to the total 21.0 million people unemployed in May, the resulting 29.9 million people would represent 17.9 percent of the combined total of the labor force plus those who want a job. A similar calculation results in 19.8 percent for April and 7.5 percent for March.

”如果将所有想要工作但不在劳动力中的人加到5月份的2100万失业总人数中，则由此产生的2990万人将占劳动力总和的总人数的17.9％。类似的计算得出4月份为19.8％，3月份为7.5％。 “

2. 那为什么与各新闻头条的5月新增就业250万的一片欢腾差别如此之大？（对应13.1%的失业率和总失业约2100多万，但后者基本不被新闻重点提及）

Of the 8.4 million employed people not at work during the survey reference week in May 2020, 5.4 million people were included in the “other reasons” category, much higher than the average of 549,000 for May 2016–2019 (not seasonally adjusted). BLS analysis of the underlying data suggests that this group included workers affected by the pandemic response who should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. Such a misclassification is an example of nonsampling error and can occur when respondents misunderstand questions or interviewers record answers incorrectly. BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are making changes for the June collection. (See item 14 below.)

According to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reassign survey responses.

3. 那么这样的统计归类误差发生了多久？以后会修正吗？

Prior to the March data collection, instructions were provided to survey interviewers on how to answer the temporarily absent question if a person said that they had a job but did not work due to the coronavirus pandemic. (See item 8 above.) Prior to April data collection, an email was sent to all interviewers that included instructions with more detailed examples and a reference table to aid in coding responses. Prior to May data collection, every field supervisor had a conference call with the household survey interviewers they manage. In these conference calls, the supervisors went over the detailed instructions and examples and were available to answer interviewers' questions.
We will continue to investigate the reasons why the misclassification error persists. In addition, we are making further changes prior to the June collection. The Census Bureau will conduct additional training to review the guidance. Also, we are embedding instructions into the data collection instrument to make them more accessible during survey interviews.

3月失业率是7%，也就是1100万人多一点，

4月失业率19.8%， 也就是3300万人左右

5月失业率是17.9%， 也就是约3000万人。

4. 最后小结：

https://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2020.pdf

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purplecafe 赞研究精神！

6月的就业数据会在7月3日发布