Postedthisinaprivateforumtoday.Iwouldliketorepostithere.
OnFXI\'scurrentstate,technically,Idon\'tlikethestockatthemoment:it\'sataverycriticallevel:itcouldmakeorbreakoverthecomingdays/weeks.Thestockhasneverbeenbelowits200-dmalineforthislong(sinceearlyJan)sinceitsIPOmorethan3years.Ifitdoesn\'tpickupitsactssoon,it\'llheadtothe110-120area.Long-term,Idon\'tmindhowpeopleliketotrashChinaandeverything...[阅读全文]
博文
(2008-02-09 08:24:26)
(2008-01-21 11:23:02)
Skyisfalling.AsiaandEuropeweredownbigonMonday,asfearofafinancialmeltdownspreadstotherestoftheworld.Thenewfearovertheweekendisthatbigtroubleswithbondinsurerscouldaffectsome$1.5trillionofbonds.Expectanotherbigsell-offonTuesday.Thatcouldsetusupforasharprebound(withorwithouttheFEDsteppingintohelp)thatwilleventuallytaketheS&P500indexfromapossiblenextweek\'slowof1260~1270toareboundinghighof1380–1420are...[阅读全文]
(2008-01-08 16:26:43)
Otherthan人民币,commoditiessuchasDBC,DBA,etc.,ifyouwantarelativelysafeplacetoparkcash,WLP,alargehealth-carecompany,maybeagoodcandidate.Ofnoticeablesare:
-Strongfranchise
-strongbalancesheet
-goodcashflow&buyingbackitsownstock
-growingataround15%annuallyforthenext5years(analystsestimate),notsensitivetoeconomicconditions
-P/Emultipleof~15
-PEGof~1.1
-P/Sof0.80
-P/book...[阅读全文]
(2008-01-08 16:16:58)
Lookatthesimilarpatternofthetwowinningstocksbelow:
Willthefollowingtwobethenextcandidates?
1.WATG:Achineseauto-partmaker,hasmadesomestrongmovesrecently.Willitpullbacktotest~10?
2.HOGS:Achinesefoodpackagecompany,hasbeengrowingat~50%forseveralyearsnow.Tradingabittoothin.Needmorevolume.
[阅读全文]
(2008-01-05 12:30:38)
Iwouldliketoown/keepthese9stocksinmynon-tradingaccountthisyear:
Ticker/Price
PZE/15.25
MTL/98.50
VIP/40.73
APA/107.39
CTRP/56.87
CYBS/17.55
ENS/25.38
EHTH/32.40
WATG/12.50
Icurrentlyown6ofthembutdon\'thavePZE-APA-CYBS.Ihopethecurrentselloffwilloffersomegoodbuyingopportunities.
Allthesestockshavesolidgrowthpotentialoverthenextfewyears.forexample,PZE,w...[阅读全文]
Ticker/Price
PZE/15.25
MTL/98.50
VIP/40.73
APA/107.39
CTRP/56.87
CYBS/17.55
ENS/25.38
EHTH/32.40
WATG/12.50
Icurrentlyown6ofthembutdon\'thavePZE-APA-CYBS.Ihopethecurrentselloffwilloffersomegoodbuyingopportunities.
Allthesestockshavesolidgrowthpotentialoverthenextfewyears.forexample,PZE,w...[阅读全文]
(2007-12-30 17:30:17)
Justfinishedreviewingmy2007returns:
1.Theactivetradingaccount:up33.1%
2.Thenon-activetradingaccount:up28.8%
3.ChineseA-shareaccount:up108%
4.Retirementaccounts:up13.0%
Intheactivetradingaccount,mostmoneywasmadefromsellingoptionpremiumthroughouttheyear,payingFidelitynearly$10kincommissionfeealongtheway.
Inthenon-tradingaccount,Ionlyhold8stocks,andmostofthemoneywasmadefrom3st...[阅读全文]
1.Theactivetradingaccount:up33.1%
2.Thenon-activetradingaccount:up28.8%
3.ChineseA-shareaccount:up108%
4.Retirementaccounts:up13.0%
Intheactivetradingaccount,mostmoneywasmadefromsellingoptionpremiumthroughouttheyear,payingFidelitynearly$10kincommissionfeealongtheway.
Inthenon-tradingaccount,Ionlyhold8stocks,andmostofthemoneywasmadefrom3st...[阅读全文]
(2007-12-15 17:11:54)
Ilookforseveralinvestmentthemesin2008:
1.CleanEnergy&Environment
Nextyearwillbeabigyearforcleanenergyandenvironment.AnewGlobalWarmingTreatywillbesignedby2009-thistimewithUSjoiningthepack.Somefundsandstockstobenefitfromthistrend:
PBW
FSLEX
CCC
2.Inflation/commodities
Funds/stockstocapturethetrend:
TIP
DBC
FSNGX
3.Agricultureboom
Theworldwillexperience...[阅读全文]
1.CleanEnergy&Environment
Nextyearwillbeabigyearforcleanenergyandenvironment.AnewGlobalWarmingTreatywillbesignedby2009-thistimewithUSjoiningthepack.Somefundsandstockstobenefitfromthistrend:
PBW
FSLEX
CCC
2.Inflation/commodities
Funds/stockstocapturethetrend:
TIP
DBC
FSNGX
3.Agricultureboom
Theworldwillexperience...[阅读全文]
(2007-12-08 16:25:27)
, as well as lots of option premium selling to take advantage of market\)
Eachyearnearyearend,Iconstructedabenchmarkportfolioforthefollowingyear.I\'llthenusethebenchmarktocheckagainstmyinvestmentreturnthroughouttheyear.YTD,my\'07benchmarkportfolioisupabout18.5%.
ThanktoafewgoodstockpickssuchasSNP,VIP,MTLandCTRP(andofcourse,manybadpicks,suchasSMH,MTH,ADI,SPF,forwhichIcutlosseswellbeforeIgothurtbadly),aswellaslotsofoptionpremiumsellingtotakeadvantageofmarket\'sgreedan...[阅读全文]
(2007-11-30 15:37:39)
废话少说，大家认图识字罢。
CFC:downfrom45earlythisyrto~8.5recently,up16%today
SPF:downfrom50twoyearsagoto~2recently,up19%today
RYL:downfrom80twoyearsagoto~20,up11%today
THC:downfrom50fouryearsagoto~3,up~40%in4days
MTL:Thisisa白马王子-forachange!
[阅读全文]
(2007-11-20 15:04:45)
Today\'slate-dayturnaroundisquiteencouraging.Thisisthefirsttimesincethissell-offstartedinmid-Octoberthatwesawa400M+volumeinSPY.ThisonatraditionallylowvolumeThanksgivingweek-daysendsaprettystrongsignalthatthebottomisnearormayhasbeenhere.ThefactthattheChinesemarketappearstohaveestablishedadouble-bottomlastnightisprettyencouragingtoo.Nowwejusthavetoseeifwecangetsomekindoffollow-throughrallytotheupsid...[阅读全文]
