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格雷厄姆·艾莉森（Graham Allison）谈到中国的全球力量如何导致超级大国冲突或其他方面。
中国在经济、技术和军事实力方面的显着崛起正在一个不确定的时代从根本上重塑世界秩序，但未来会带来冷战式的竞争、合作，还是两者兼而有之？
格雷厄姆·艾利森主演 2022 年 1 月 21 日
在地缘政治方面，要给格雷厄姆·艾利森教授留下深刻印象需要付出很大的努力。 毕竟，他是冷战者中的冷战者——作为美国最有影响力的国防政策分析师和顾问之一，他因其在与俄罗斯核裁军方面的工作而两次被授予国防部最高民事荣誉。 他是前助理国防部长、前外交关系委员会主任、三边委员会创始成员，也是一位著名的政治学家，曾担任肯尼迪学院院长和该校贝尔弗科学与国际中心主任 事务。 然而，就连艾利森也表示，他对中国这个世界上正在崛起的经济、技术和军事超级大国的快速转型感到惊讶，他说，美国和世界其他国家早就该听到一些有关中国实力和实力的残酷事实了。 21世纪世界事务的潜在主导地位。
为了解释中国如何不仅赶上了，而且在许多情况下超越了，美国、艾利森和一群同事正在撰写一系列五篇研究论文，涉及经济、技术进步、军事实力、外交影响力等关键领域 和意识形态。 第三篇论文关于中国作为经济超级大国的非凡崛起，其中指出，尽管有些人可能仍将中国视为发展中国家，但事实是，中国的 GDP 每四年就增加了相当于印度整个经济的水平。 多年来，中国中产阶级的人数（约 4 亿）现在远远超过了美国的总人口。
与此同时，中国在人工智能、量子计算和绿色科技等21世纪基础技术方面要么正在追赶，要么处于领先地位，而最近的兵棋推演预测，中国现代化、扩张的军队可能会赢得对台湾的军事冲突。 格雷厄姆·艾利森谈到了中国的崛起以及下一个超级大国的竞争，同时也谈到了超越冷战思维的美中关系新范式的可能性。
剧集注释：
格雷厄姆·艾利森 (Graham Allison) 是哈佛大学道格拉斯·狄龙政府学教授，已在哈佛大学任教 50 年。 艾利森是一位领先的国家安全分析师，对核武器、俄罗斯、中国和决策特别感兴趣。 艾利森是哈佛大学约翰·肯尼迪政府学院的“创始院长”，并担任贝尔弗科学和国际事务中心主任直至 2017 年。 作为克林顿第一届政府的助理国防部长，艾利森因“重塑与俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的关系以削减前苏联核武库”而获得了国防部最高民事奖项——杰出公共服务国防奖章。 这导致12000多枚战术核武器从前苏联加盟共和国安全归还，并彻底消除了苏联解体时留在乌克兰、哈萨克斯坦和白俄罗斯的4000多枚先前针对美国的战略核弹头。
他是多部著作的作者，其中包括：《战争注定：美国和中国能否逃脱修昔底德陷阱？》 （2017）、《李光耀：大师对中国、美国和世界的见解》（2013）、《核恐怖主义：最终可预防的灾难》（2004）和《决策的本质：解释古巴导弹危机》 （1971）。
作为现代肯尼迪学院的“创始院长”，在他的领导下，从 1977 年到 1989 年，一个小型的、未定义的项目发展了 20 倍，成为一所主要的公共政策和政府专业学院。 艾利森是三边委员会的创始成员、外交关系委员会主任。 他在北卡罗来纳州夏洛特出生和长大，并在戴维森学院接受教育。 哈佛大学（历史学学士学位，优等生）； 牛津大学（学士和硕士学位，哲学、政治学和经济学一等荣誉）； 和哈佛大学（政治学博士）。
China's remarkable rise in economic, technological, and military prowess is radically reshaping the world order during an uncertain age, but will the future bring Cold War-style rivalry, collaboration, or both?
FEATURING GRAHAM ALLISON
JANUARY 21, 2022
It takes a lot to impress Professor Graham Allison when it comes to geopolitics. He is, after all, the Cold Warrior’s Cold Warrior—as one of America’s most influential defense policy analysts and advisors, he was twice awarded the Defense Department’s highest civilian honor for his work on nuclear disarmament with Russia. He’s a former assistant secretary of defense, former director of the Council on Foreign Relations, a founding member of the Trilateral Commission, and a renowned political scientist who has served as dean of the Kennedy School and head of the school’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Yet even Allison says he marvels at the rapid transformation of China, the world's rising economic, technological, and military superpower, and he says it’s well past time for the United States and the rest of the world to hear some hard truths about China’s power and potential dominance of world affairs during the 21st century.
To explain how China has not only caught up with, but in numerous cases surpassed, the United States, Allison and a group of colleagues are writing a series of five research papers on the key areas of economics, technological advancement, military power, diplomatic influence, and ideology. The third paper, on China’s extraordinary rise as an economic superpower, states that while some may be tempted to still see China as a developing country, the truth is that it has been adding the equivalent of the entire economy of India to its GDP every four years and that the number of people in the Chinese middle class—some 400 million—now far outnumber the entire population of the United States.
Meanwhile, China is either catching up or leading in foundational technologies of the 21st century like AI, quantum computing, and green tech, while recent war games predict that China’s modernized, expanded military would likely win a military conflict over Taiwan. Graham Allison talks about China’s rise and what could be the next great superpower rivalry—but also about the possibilities for a new paradigm for the U.S.-China relationship that goes beyond Cold War thinking.
Episode Notes:
Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University, where he has taught for five decades. Allison is a leading analyst of national security with special interests in nuclear weapons, Russia, China, and decision-making. Allison was the “founding dean” of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, and until 2017, served as director of its Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. As assistant secretary of defense in the first Clinton administration, Allison received the Defense Department's highest civilian award, the Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, for "reshaping relations with Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan to reduce the former Soviet nuclear arsenal." This resulted in the safe return of more than 12,000 tactical nuclear weapons from the former Soviet republics and the complete elimination of more than 4,000 strategic nuclear warheads previously targeted at the United States and left in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus when the Soviet Union disappeared.
He is the author of numerous books, including: “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” (2017), “Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States and the World” (2013), “Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe” (2004) and “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971).
As "founding dean" of the modern Kennedy School, under his leadership, from 1977 to 1989, a small, undefined program grew twenty-fold to become a major professional school of public policy and government. Allison was a founding member of the Trilateral Commission, a Director of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was born and raised in Charlotte, North Carolina and was educated at Davidson College; Harvard College (B.A., magna cum laude, in History); Oxford University (B.A. and M.A., First Class Honors in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics); and Harvard University (Ph.D. in Political Science).
Hosted and produced by
Ralph Ranalli
Co-produced by
Susan Hughes
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