习特会唯一要紧的问题，习近平问了吗？

20强习特会后，我的感觉是“大豆换华为”是蒙人的，昨天经济办主任克罗（Larry Kudlow，人称库德洛）马上出来说皮毛部件可以卖给华为，核心的就不会，所以实际上中国除了免第二批关税、重新开谈外，得到的好处不大，当然不升级也让大家吃了颗定心丸。

 

中国的底线包括双方对等对待，莱海瑟（Robert E. Lighthizer）和其他人当即斥责说贸易战就是因为中方对美国不对等，欺负美国，这次打仗主要是矫枉过正，没法对等对待。据（美）财长说，只要不谈崩，华为就有货，但还是天天看别人眼色那种。

 

习近平如果想出奇兵，只有一招，我年头觉得习近平用了（习特通话是习近平的高招），就是架空其他人，直接跟淳朴（美国总统Donald Trump，人称特朗普或川普）谈。后来崩了，我也只能承认瞎折腾，但现在看来说不定中方并没有想到。

 

在谈崩之前美方不断以“内幕”方式放风，“种种进展”，总统也乐观，后来小道说其实淳朴并不知道内情，莱海瑟和其他人刻意把淳朴蒙在鼓里，怕他不懂，或胡搅蛮缠，只跟他说“好好好”，结果淳朴也跟着说“好好好”。我的感觉是莱海瑟虽然知道，也担心淳朴会松口，但未必真的蓄谋瞒他，不过如果刘鹤处理得好，结局会不同。

 

都说淳朴是商人，有商人的“商”，步步逼人，但目的是成交。淳朴商人的真正意思是“国家利益”在他那儿跟在其他人的不一样，大家觉得中国是世敌，一定要打死，他未必觉得如此，也不在乎。

 

《财新》记者张琪给淳朴问了个关键问题，中国是敌是友？

I asked @realDonaldTrump whether China and the U.S. are partners, competitors or enemies. “We are going to be strategic partners, we can help each other. “ He also urged China to reach the “right deal” and to open up its “tremendous” market to the U.S. pic.twitter.com/0DadXVa6S6

— Olivia Qi Zhang (@zhang_qiii) June 29, 2019

（上述推文应当带有视频，如果见不到，点击点击，我的Firefox不显示，但Chrome显示）

 

淳朴说（大意）：“只要习近平接受我的要求，美中会成为伙伴（partner）。”

 

别以为这是个无法接受的要求，也别以为这说法无关紧要，在美国，几乎所有人，甚至务实派，都说“美洲在任何情况下都是对手、敌人”。故此淳朴此言一出，美国整个气炸了。

If President Trump has in fact bargained away the recent restrictions on #Huawei, then we will have to get those restrictions put back in place through legislation.

And it will pass with a large veto proof majority.

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) June 29, 2019

 

如果最后淳朴放过华为，难道莱海瑟辞职抗议？抗议也未必有用。当然中国要做出较大的让步才可能促成成交的可能，确实没法“对等”。上次因为刘鹤两边不到位，据说常委联合给习近平表态，习近平才彻底转了。

 

如果习近平真得有眼光，或者刘鹤长了进，习特会习近平唯一要问的，是：

 

总统大人，您的底线是什么？如果我们接受某项要求，如何保证让您知道？

 

不知习近平问了没有。

 

 

 

 

 

[可怜无数山]

你家和别人谈判，会直接问对方底线？对方得多傻会诚实告知？这边得多傻会相信对方会诚实告知底线？

[HCC]

Nightrider, is it possible to ask you to think before you leave comments here? You have been singing the same song over and over, to the point where it becomes annoying, if not disrespectful. Contrary to your assertion, China has largely complied with its WTO commitments. I have explained that to you multiple times. You never bothered to respond.

And mind you -- unilaterally imposing tariff on another country is not in accordance with WTO rules, either. Guess which country has been doing it more often than any others? (Hint: it ain't China).

Also contrary to your assertion: nobody is certain what the US' demand is. The current administration changes its mind and its bottom line faster than the weather changes in July. For this president: one day, China is raping the US -- the next day, China and US can become partners and Mr. Xi is the greatest Chinese leader in 200 years. This inconsistency only diminishes US' position. Surprisingly, there are still some people who think the bottom line is as clear as the "miday sun."

Perhaps you need a pair of sunglasses to help your vision.

[westshore]

美国如今大概也意识到社会组织性不如中国，因此不论什么战争只要持久就必输。这是体制因素，也是文化因素，中国政府可以很容易引导社会期望值，而美国做不到。
美国芯片60%出口中国，没有中国买就没人买，一下子失去60%的市场是什么概念？中国一方最坏可以得到政府补贴，而且中国政府有钱，而美国公司得不到这种补贴，甚至连川普承诺给农民的120亿过了已经一年了也只兑现了40%，也就是美国政府拿不出这笔钱。
而120亿只想当于华为一年盈利的10%几，哪怕美国公司是华为盈利的一半，这种规模的补贴也是无法拯救美国高科技公司的。
中美的世界角色正在对掉期，大概需要一代人的时间。

[nightrider]

The bottom line? How is the bottom line not clear as the miday sun? Do you really have to ask the obvious? Implement all the WTO committment China, including taking down the Great Fire Wall, signed two decades ago with the legal mechanism to ensure it. Everyone knows what the US bottom line is. Everyone knows CCP can not possibly do it since doing it will kill CCP hundred times over.

[lostman]

底线是完成WTO承诺，成为法制国家，

[梅华书香]

狼和狗原本是一家吖，但愿美中也是原本一家亲！