多哈论油油泡汤？

等待已久的多哈产油协商在即，种种"达成"封产的传说让油价大幅上升（参见：油价直上$50？）。华尔街的头禅是“乱市买入，见好就收“（buy the rumor, sell the news），今天油价算是歇歇了：

在美元不涨的情况下下跌，实际幅度更大了：


华尔街日报开玩笑说这是小题大做（Much Ado About Doha）,没人觉得此轮“商讨”对全球原油供给会有任何实质上的影响：
《彭博（昨天）》IEA Sees Oil Oversupply Almost Gone in Second Half on Shale Drop
“there will be little real impact from the accord, due to be finalized in Doha this weekend, the IEA said”


倒是国际能源署（IEA）说的“到下半年美国页岩油产业将会倍彻底打败，不会再有原油过剩的情况”给油市大牛打了一气。

《华尔街日报简介》The Oil World Descends on Doha
伊朗石油部长说是不去，伊朗已经三番五次说只会增产了。

《彭博（今天）》Oil Falls Before Doha as Global Markets Brace for Weekend Risk


《彭博》Oil Freeze: Everything You Need to Know About the Doha Summit

How likely is an agreement?
Forty traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg this week were evenly split on whether there will be a deal. While Russia’s Energy Ministry is “optimistic” and Qatar’s has a “positive feeling,” Saudi Arabia has said it will only cap its output if Iran follows suit -- a notion Tehran has dismissed as “ridiculous.”
What impact would a freeze have on oil prices?
Crude has rallied more than 30 percent to above $40 a barrel since the preliminary freeze accord in mid-February prompted a shift in market sentiment. A final accord could lock that gain in place, or even extend it to $50, said Bank of America Corp. Yet a freeze will do little to mop up the glut because Saudi Arabia and Russia -- the world’s biggest crude producers -- are already pumping near record levels. Morgan Stanley said “our downbeat oil view is unchanged” by the prospects of a freeze.

《彭博》Saudi Prince Reiterates Oil Freeze Depends on Others Joining
没伊朗行吗？谣言说沙俄已默许，行。果真吗？
最新报告：出自沙特主管经济的阿勒沙特王子（Prince Mohammed bin Salman）之口：
“If all major producers don’t freeze production, we will not freeze production,”
“If we don’t freeze, then we will sell at any opportunity we get.”
“If prices went up to $60 or $70, that would be a strong factor to push forward the wheel of development,” Prince Mohammed said. “But this battle is not my battle. It’s the battle of others who are suffering from low oil prices.”
“we have our own programs that don’t need high oil prices.”

赶紧买。

老实说，大拿们对油价也六神无主，只是叫嚷“高”的雷声大。
《商业有线电视CNBC》