孤独的声音

两个科恩

Stephen F. Cohen：


CNN采访

【Stephen F. Cohen】 Well, the other Steve and I fundamentally disagree. First of all, let's say where the it is, where we are at now. We are in a new Cold War, the crypt is crypt, we may be approaching a war with Russia, Ukraine is in ruins East and West. Europe is split, this probably will last, it may be a fracture in the Transatlantic Alliance. I think - and I speak as a historian and somebody who has followed this for years because it began a while ago. Putin did not initiate this crisis, he did not want it. It's bad for him, contrary to Steve, and he wants it ended. But he's not going to end it on terms of capitulation. The argument that if we arm Kiev and that train we have led the station, there is a lot of movement in that direction, will only make things worse. There is a way out. But the only people at a statesmen level who seem interested in exploring that way out are President Hollande and Chancellor Merkel and they are not very strong. The war parties in Washington, Kiev and NATO are now running this and we literally may be heading, as I told you in February, I think, to an a Cuban missile crisis-like confrontation with Russia.

【Stephen F. Cohen】 If by Russia you mean the Russian people, they have no appetite for this. Neither does the American people. This is something given to us by the elites of two countries. Not only are we in a new Cold War, but it's potentially much more dangerous than the last one. Because the center of this Cold War is right on Russia's border, it's not in Berlin, in Ukraine. It's existential. When you hear already Russian generals talking about the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons, you know that Russia is, shall we say, stressed. The problem here in part are the remarks about Putin. Something strange has happened. The demonization of Putin, which is beyond any factual basis, leads to a kind of amnesia among people here who should know better. The cleptocracy, and that's not a characteristic of the Russian economy, they had the biggest grain bumper crop in decades this year. They manufacture a lot of stuff. If they are dependent on minerals as they are, blame God, not Putin. The fact is this economic system was created by Yeltsin, Mr. Browder knows that, he worked in Russia at that time. Miss Freeland knows that because she wrote one of the best books about this.

But suddenly it's about Putin, he inherited this system. But something has happened here. This vilification of Putin, I've been doing this -- I'm probably the oldest person at this table - I've been following Russia since the '60s. I do not recall this kind of official public vilification, referring to the Russian leader as a Hitler, which is completely incorrect that ever having been done to a Soviet communist leader, at least after Stalin. And the result is a kind of analysis you're hearing here. It's all about Putin. There's no Russia. Russia has no agency. But here is the point.

Henry Kissinger said back in March of last year the demonization of Putin is not a policy, it's an alibi for not having a policy. But it's worse than what Dr. Kissinger has said, it's completely obscured. It's degraded, any kind of rational analysis of this country as to who is to blame for this and how we get out of it. And the result is as we talk -- as we talk, and this is not idle rhetoric, we may be hurtling toward actual war with Russia.


【后记】
2015.03.19科恩半岛电视台美国站采访：




Stephen P. Cohen：布鲁金斯学会

He is often confused with Columbia University's Stephen F. Cohen, a scholar of Russian studies who has recently come under some criticism for his seemingly pro-Putin and pro-Russia views in the Ukraine/Crimea crisis.


Stephen P. Cohen of Brookings on Ukraine and Russia Crises

    From: [Pravda.ru email address]?
    Sent: Friday, March 28, 2014 3:59 AM?
    To: Stephen Cohen?
    Subject: Stephen Cohen - Comment for Pravda.Ru??

    Dear Mr. Cohen,

    ?I'm writing from the Russian online newspaper Pravda.Ru. Professor Robert Bruce Ware recommended me to write you. We would be pleased to get your comment about the situation in and around the Ukraine. It would be great if you would answer our questions in writing or via Skype.

    1) Recently the nuclear safety summit in Hague was held.? There are the nuclear stations in Ukraine that work on the fuel transported from Russia, and some experts worry that some of the Right sector party radicals would try to attack some of the strategic objects. The results could be rather catastrophic, if such militants would take control of it.? Why, from your point of view, the West doesn’t take this issue into account and doesn’t speak about it??

    【Stephen P. Cohen】 ?I'm not sure who these "experts" are, but I do know that both the U.S. and Russia have had problems with safety and security of nuclear materials in the past. The solution is to help the Ukraine with its own fuel management, improving their internal security system, etc. As for why the West does not speak about this I do not know, but there are government-to-government discussions going on now and this particular issue is overshadowed by the greater destabilization of the region that has occurred. The strategy for the U.S. should not be to develop strategies to punish Russia but to help liberal and democratic groups in Ukraine.

    2) Ukraine proclaimed that it intends to withdraw the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The corresponding bill was introduced in Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Is there a danger that Ukraine will turn into the nuclear power? Will there be any consequences if so???

    【Stephen P. Cohen】 This would be both unwise and improbable. To prevent it, Ukraine's borders should be regarded as inviolable so that it has no need to rebuild its nukes (which would be technically difficult in any case), and its conventional forces should be strong enough to deter any neighbor from meddling.???

    3) As we know, General Assembly of UN approved the resolution according to which the referendum on Crimea was illegal. Does that mean that these 100 countries that voted for it don't consider the opinion of people in Crimea as something important? Don't people who are against the authorities they didn't choose have a right to make such a decision???

    【Stephen P. Cohen】 The question is the rights of minorities, both in Ukraine and Crimea; if (as in the case of Pakistan) a power regards itself as a protector of a minority group in another country then the world will become very unsafe. Minorities, whether Russians or non-Russian Ukrainians, should be protected so that this meddling does not happen. Hitler moved into Austria for the same reason. It's a bad principle. Ask the Indians.??

    ?4) Obama admitted that sanctions against Russia would do no good for West. So will there be any serious sanctions against Russia eventually? Is it correct for the USA to blame Russia for the aggression after the campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yugoslavia???

   【Stephen P. Cohen】 Some of these "aggressions" were misguided. For example, we should not have gone into Iraq before ensuring that Afghanistan was going to be settled and stable.We may wind up with a limited defeat in both countries. The major difference is that the U.S. pulled out of those countries and never thought of incorporating them into the Union.