笨狼发牢骚

发发牢骚,解解闷,消消愁
个人资料
笨狼 (热门博主)
  • 博客访问:
正文

沙特石油战?

(2014-11-21 16:47:02) 下一个

油价大跌的新闻算是过时了,成了生活的一部分。大家都说主要的原因是供过于求,是这么回事儿的。

但也有谣传说这是美国和沙特联手合围俄罗斯,有人信,有人不信。我是不信。沙特公开说不减产,不怕跌价,是真的。只是联手这事儿尽管不是没有可能,世界却没那么简单。



利用油价打击俄罗斯,符合美国的利益,说美国这么做,是可能的。不过我觉得美国几个月前压根儿就没这么打算,后来发现还真是有这么一回事儿,歪打正着,还觉得自己挺厉害,也就采用这为策略了。

沙特呢?沙特没有理由、必要打击俄罗斯,它对美国依赖大,有接受美国要求的原因和需要,但沙特老奸巨猾,在此事上不会简单下注。实际上,说到世界没那么简单,是因为利益、冲突是多方面的,不是一对一,简单地黑白。此时的利益,有美国对俄罗斯,还有沙特对伊朗。说沙特利用油价打伊朗,那就说通了。对美国来说,也正中下怀。

这样,沙美联手,各自得到各自的目的,一拍即合。

要是我啊,我说压根儿就没有什么阴谋。这里说说另外的两个观点。

第一个观点,沙特真正的目标,其实很简单,乃是加拿大的油砂和美国的页岩油。实际上美国也报道过了,留意的人不多,当一回事儿的更少。理由很简单:压价让对手破产。也许是太简单了,不可信。

这是能源经济学家Philip Verleger说的:
Verleger, however, says Saudi Arabia is determined to reverse the decline in its market share and can afford to be the low-price leader while keeping production high despite thinner profit margins. Its goal: to shut down production so it can reclaim its dominance, including in the U.S. and Canada, Verleger says.
Verleger predicts some U.S. companies will shut down while others scale back production. After U.S. production rose by slightly more than 1 million barrels a day each of the past few years, Verleger estimates output will increase by about 800,000 barrels a day next year.

这是另一个报道
“I’m describing this as a price war of necessity,” said Philip Verleger, an independent oil consultant based in Colorado. “And the Saudis are doing it because their market share is threatened. And I think their target is Alberta.”

第二个观点说美国实际上亏得最大,
Opinion: 5 countries that will be the biggest losers from oil’s slide, HOWARD GOLD
#1(亏的头号). The U.S. has produced a million more barrels a day for each of the last three years, while the Baker-Hughes U.S. rig count (the number of rigs currently searching for oil and gas) keeps going up and up.
But if oil prices keep falling to $50 or $60 a barrel, domestic shale-oil production could be cut to the bone. Oil at $60 to $65 a barrel would be a “stress test,” Jason Bordoff of Columbia University told The Wall Street Journal, and $50 could “completely halt production,” said Marianne Kah, chief economist of ConocoPhillips COP, +0.52%

所以,油价跌,没有阴谋,原因很简单:
【1】世界经济不振,
【2】供过于求,除了美国的页岩油,利比亚、伊拉克在动乱中能保持高产,也属意外,
【3】沙特要挤垮对手,亏钱也不怕,目标不是俄伊,而是美加,完全是从自己的生存出发,
【4】还有其他国家(俄、伊、伊拉克、利比亚)因财政因素不愿减产,
【5】美元强劲。

当然了,个人观点而已,大家自己斟酌。

【后记】
这是美国主流路透社的报道Saudi oil policy uncertainty unleashes the conspiracy theorists
"They are after U.S. shale," said one participant in the meetings with Saudi officials."
看来这不是几个人瞎猜。

不过,赚的最大的是谁,大家自然很清楚。

10 October 2013
英国广播公司: China overtakes US as the biggest importer of oil

很久以前的事儿了。

Nov 11, 2014
彭博:China Seen Overtaking U.S. as World’s Biggest Oil User

 

[ 打印 ]
阅读 ()评论 (0)
评论
目前还没有任何评论
登录后才可评论.