2015 (1)
2018 (34)
2022 (56)
2024 (1)
坚信贸易战可以终止美国被其他国家占便宜的现象，并寄希望于贸易战给美国带来经济繁荣，和高质低价的商品。几天前，有闲和朋友之一共饮咖啡，那天正值Meuller 报告出台，聊天中，朋友要提到上述贸易战观点。我对此不置可否，用下面这个hypothetical 的case 的分析提出不同的思考方向，不包括个人立场。
中国生产的海尔冰箱是市场上价格最低的，目前，trump政府要对美国商人收取进口税，海尔冰箱的价格也就被提高了。美国市场上还有三星，LG，GE等等，本来他们的价格高于海尔，但是加了关税的海尔价格又越过他们了。新的价格不符合商家和消费者的价格期待，此时，销售商当然要给没有加进口税的三星，LG，以至于与进口毫无关系的美国的GE涨价。因为原来这些牌子的货就比中国的价格高。资本家不会等到因为消费者不再购买价格高的海尔，停止进口海尔。资本家会在海尔提高价格的同时全面提高其他牌子的价格，造成全面涨价。这样，海尔的价格仍旧是最低的，三星，LG， GE仍旧与海尔保持着未加额外关税时的价格距离。
资本家在对中国产品增加关税时趁火打劫，也称为市场经济。想来也有道理，市场定价很大的一部分是商品质量，信誉，牌子，技术和产品发展史等等，总不能因为增加了中国关税，就让海尔比三星还贵吧? 贸易战的受益者有两方，一个是政府增加了收入，再一个是资本家获取更高的附加值。商品市场中还有一个重要的一方是消费者，没有消费者，政府和资本家谁也赚不到钱，百姓消费者在此之中得到的是通货膨胀。贸易战是国际的，造成的是世界市场动荡。
trump 与当年罗斯福一样都需要增加政府财政，罗的Revenue Act of 1935 征的是富人的税，达到了增加政府财政收入的目的。trump要得到选票，以减少business 的税得到资本家的支持，又重新调整了个人所得税，可是trump还要增加军费。财政收入的缺口从哪里补？trump的策略是提高进口税。贸易战的结果至少有三方被影响，增加政府财政收入，更加充实了资本家的钱袋，而这两个群体得到的钱是从普通消费者的口袋中拿走的。罗斯福的Revenue Act of 1935 增加的政府财政收入来自于富人的钱袋，五百万以上收入的税率是75%，而trump 的贸易战的利益获得者，包括政府和资本家的钱来自于普通消费者的钱包。
我的朋友和她的家人都是很成功的美国upper middle class。 她是一个醉心研究的学者，她的丈夫和儿子各自有自己的financial firm。30 几年的婚姻一直是AA制，夫妻各自年收入属于multimillions 的category。 我也有兴趣知道她的，以及我的其他美国朋友支持贸易战的原因。在此不述。这个只是case analysis，不包括个人立场。
if you have nothing substantive to contribute other than parroting and puffing your own intestinal gas, the last thing you want to do to pretend that you are well learnt and intelligent because it will only make you that much more hollow intellectually speaking.
sufficient 发表评论于 2019-04-23 08:33:01
哪儿冒出来个假洋鬼子，非尼玛要在这里飙英文，能读不会写，你烦不烦呀？没人愿意看你的，你写有个屁用呢
===============================================
I guess that I do not have to respond to an idiot and a jap want to be like you.
Trump的贸易战是means，不是ends。即使是progressive的NYT，也常有文章指出中国对知识产权赤裸裸的掠夺和偷窃实在是需要遏制。
===============================================================================
Give me a freak break, protecting IP just like national security is no more than just an excuse for US to disguise its own failures and as bargaining chips to gain advantages in negotiating with China.
哪儿冒出来个假洋鬼子，非尼玛要在这里飙英文，能读不会写，你烦不烦呀？
================================================================
I will just respond to your gripe just once. I can read and write (somewhat). But, I do not know how to type Chinese. I came to this country in my formative years. With that said, I thought this place is for all to voice their substantive opinions, but not as your kinds to pop empty rants.
Fair? You got to be kidding me, right? Americans cannot even agree with themselves what fairness means. It is even more so in among nations regarding to commercial interests. What is even worse that this definition of fairness is constantly shifting with time for US. According to WTO, it recognizes that developed nations with its mature industries have natural advantages over the infant industries of the developing nations. Therefore, it allows limited measures by the developing nations to protect its infant industries. All industrialized nations including US had in their past done exactly the same thing while they were in developing stage. It was with this assumptions in mind that both US and China entered negotiation for China to join WTO. At 2001 when the deal was struck, US thought it was fair deal because it believed its competitive edge would allow its industries to exploit the Chinese market. When Donald Trump cried unfairness of the deal, it was no more than a partisan politic to offer excuses for its own failures. It was like that you agreed to buy a house ten years ago with a mutually agreed price and your own belief that this house would go up in value with time. Ten years later, maybe it is due to your own mismanagement or neighborhood deterioration, your house value went down. Now, you are arguing that the house price you paid for was not a fair deal and demand that your monthly mortgage should be cut to suit your definition fairness. Do you think that is fair? To you maybe, but not to the seller and the bank.
减税得到的好处也较多。
反正现在是越穷越倒霉，千万别变穷人。
有意思！我认为我属于中产下层，今年补交的联邦税是去年的3倍，非常恼火。
-----------------------------------------------------------------
今年要多交税！非常恼火+1
美国两党在贸易战上没有分歧，只有几个中国人在唧唧歪歪地为美国人着急
===================================================================
You have just highlighted one of the major shortcomings of a democracy. You know such a way cannot solve the problems and it can only aggravate the problems, but you have to do it because you are a politician and your job depends not on how well you can run the country in the long run but on how well you can satisfy the immediate desires of a bunch of short sighted and ignorant voters, who in frustrations mostly resort to their raw animalistic but often times faulty instincts rather than well analyzed rationale.
You seem to be just another economic illiterate. The initial impulses for US to move its manufactures to China came from at least two considerations: first, to lower the production cost and second, to position themselves to take advantage of the growing domestic market on China(its consumer markets is fast surpassing that of the US). There are already scores of US companies today heavily depending on China's market for its own revenue growth. Moving the manufactures out of China did not necessarily lower the production cost, most of them do not. In addition, it will put themselves out of the main loop of China's consumer market in the long run.
美国人基本没有什么国际概念，认为美国就是世界，不能理解贸易战如果川普获胜，也就是美元的末日，因为中国将被迫放弃美元，其他国家也不得不放弃美元。而如果美元没有了统治地位，也就不会有这样便宜的国内价格，消费者的支出会大幅度上升。
美国社会的反智主义是西方发达国家最强烈的。
===================================================================
看来您那富翁朋友也有情绪化时候。贸易战是对前十几年全球资本化泛滥的回调，而不是终结。通过重新定义关税和政策调整来保护美国竞争力和争强因外包而弱化的美国企业，这是以消耗美国全球的领导力为代价的，非常合情合理。阵痛难免，不同利益集团得失不同。