古风短评：金砖国家将建立自己的IMF和世行

【古风按】其实，在过去的好多年里，中国一直在倡导金砖五国成立自己控股的国际银行体系，可是由于俄国和印度的犹豫和纠葛，金砖银行始终停留在研究讨论的阶段。好在有智慧也有耐心的中国静静地等待着国际风云的变幻，让其他的金砖四国充分认识到在这个世上到底谁是真心对待朋友的，所谓“路遥知马力、日久见人心”嘛。这不，机会终于等来了，美欧列强们在乌克兰问题上毫无底线地挤压俄国的战略空间，把俄国推上了彻底为敌的道路，让俄国对美欧死了心。从此，中俄才真正开始大力经营金砖五国政治经济金融体系，启动了建立独立于美欧日的金砖系统，拉开了在全球范围内去美元、去欧元的序幕。在金砖五国里，只要中俄能够齐心合力，印度、巴西、南非必定跟进，那么美欧日的最终溃败将会成为板上钉钉了的历史事件。从下面的资讯中，可以看出在金砖五国银行体系中，中国将获取41%的投票权，俄国、印度和巴西各有18%的权重，而最后的5%划给了南非。日后，随着中国国力的进一步增强，中国的权重也将会继续“水涨船高”的，并进而成为主导世界政治、经济、金融的决定性力量。现在，回想起来，若金砖银行早几年设立，中国的权重会比现在的41%要低不少，可是俄国和印度的小心眼真的是活生生地演绎了聪明反被聪明误的道理啊。说到底，毕竟时间站在中国的这一边，等得越久，其他的金砖四国跟中国的力量对比会越来越悬殊；若金砖银行迟迟不能成为现实，再过几年，中国没准自己搞单干了，那其他的金砖四国岂不就失去了新世界体系的五常地位了吗？哈哈。。。

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http://finance.qq.com/a/20140416/003031.htm

俄媒：金砖国家将建立自己的IMF和世行
腾讯财经 2014-04-16

北京时间4月16日凌晨消息，俄罗斯媒体周二引述俄罗斯巡回大使瓦蒂姆-拉科夫（Vadim Lukov）的说法报道，金砖国家已经在设立旨在取代分别由美国和欧盟把持的国际货币基金组织以及世界银行的机构方面取得了重大进展，一个将起到国际货币基金组织作用的货币储备池，以及一个取代世界银行的金砖国家发展银行最快在2015年就会成立。

瓦蒂姆-拉科夫说，巴西已经起草了金砖国家发展银行的宪章，俄罗斯则是正在制定设立这个银行机构的政府间协议。此外，金砖国家已经就新机构的资本金规模达成了一致，也就是每个机构1000亿美元。他说，“最初500亿美元出资额的分派比例已经在讨论中，各方也就发展银行总部所在地进行了磋商。金砖国家的所有成员国都对让发展银行在本国设立总部表达了极大的兴趣。”

作为对参与各国经济规模的体现，货币储备池的出资比例预计将是中国410亿美元，巴西、印度以及俄罗斯各180亿美元，南非将贡献50亿美元。

与之相比，以特别提款权作为单位的国际货币基金组织资金规模大致相当于2384亿欧元，或者说3695.2亿美元。虽然在规模上金砖国家拟议中的货币储备池规模要远远小于国际货币基金组织，但是1000亿美元对五个国家来说将是绰绰有余的——国际货币基金组织有188个成员国家，它们随时可能提出财政援助要求。

金砖国家还将设立一家发展银行作为世界银行的替代品 ，将针对那些不以美国和欧盟作为受益方，而是让发展中国家获利的项目提供贷款。发展银行的目的将主要是为金砖国家以外的项目提供资金。参与组建这个银行的国家认为，它们自身有足够能力开发自己的项目，例如俄罗斯就有自己的国际财富基金来实现这一目的。

经济专家集团的成员伊亚-普瑞乐普斯基（Ilya Prilepsky）说，“来自发展银行的贷款将不主要针对金砖国家的项目，而是在其他国家基础设施建设上的投资，比如在非洲的投资。”他表示，“比如说，向一个非洲国家的水电开发项目提供贷款就是符合金砖国家利益的，它们可以为项目提供设备，或者是成为主要的承包商。”

如果这些贷款是由国际货币基金组织来提供，那么设备将主要由控制了贷款活动的西方国家来供应。

投资企业高登希尔资本的研究主管娜塔莉亚-萨莫伊洛娃（Natalya Samoilova）还指出，金砖国家发展银行的建立也具有政治上的重大意义，它将使得各成员国得以在海外促进自己的利益。她说，“这是一个政治行动，可以突出那些意见经常被发达的美洲和欧洲国家无视的国家越来越强势的立场。这个联盟越强，在世界这个竞技场上的地位就越高，也就可以更容易地保护成员国的利益。”

而伊亚-普瑞乐普斯基也强调，即便如此，金砖国家设立自己的替代性合作组织并不是说它们将会退出现在的世界银行和国际货币基金组织，至少一开始不会这样做。 （孔军）

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http://rbth.com/business/2014/04/14/brics_countries_to_set_up_their_own_imf_35891.html

BRICS countries to set up their own IMF
Olga Samofalova, Vzglyad, 14 April 2014

Very soon, the IMF will cease to be the world's only organization capable of rendering international financial assistance. The BRICS countries are setting up alternative institutions, including a currency reserve pool and a development bank.

The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have made significant progress in setting up structures that would serve as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are dominated by the U.S. and the EU. A currency reserve pool, as a replacement for the IMF, and a BRICS development bank, as a replacement for the World Bank, will begin operating as soon as in 2015, Russian Ambassador at Large Vadim Lukov has said.

Brazil has already drafted a charter for the BRICS Development Bank, while Russia is drawing up intergovernmental agreements on setting the bank up, he added.

In addition, the BRICS countries have already agreed on the amount of authorized capital for the new institutions: $100 billion each. "Talks are under way on the distribution of the initial capital of $50 billion between the partners and on the location for the headquarters of the bank. Each of the BRICS countries has expressed a considerable interest in having the headquarters on its territory," Lukov said.

It is expected that contributions to the currency reserve pool will be as follows: China, $41 billion; Brazil, India, and Russia, $18 billion each; and South Africa, $5 billion. The amount of the contributions reflects the size of the countries' economies.

By way of comparison, the IMF reserves, which are set by the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), currently stand at 238.4 billion euros, or $369.52 billion dollars. In terms of amounts, the BRICS currency reserve pool is, of course, inferior to the IMF. However, $100 billion should be quite sufficient for five countries, whereas the IMF comprises 188 countries - which may require financial assistance at any time.

BRICS Development Bank

The BRICS countries are setting up a Development Bank as an alternative to the World Bank in order to grant loans for projects that are beneficial not for the U.S. or the EU, but for developing countries.

The purpose of the bank is to primarily finance external rather than internal projects. The founding countries believe that they are quite capable of developing their own projects themselves. For instance, Russia has a National Wealth Fund for this purpose.

"Loans from the Development Bank will be aimed not so much at the BRICS countries as for investment in infrastructure projects in other countries, say, in Africa,” says Ilya Prilepsky, a member of the Economic Expert Group. “For example, it would be in BRICS' interest to give a loan to an African country for a hydropower development program, where BRICS countries could supply their equipment or act as the main contractor."

If the loan is provided by the IMF, the equipment will be supplied by western countries that control its operations.

The creation of the BRICS Development Bank has a political significance too, since it allows its member states to promote their interests abroad. "It is a political move that can highlight the strengthening positions of countries whose opinion is frequently ignored by their developed American and European colleagues. The stronger this union and its positions on the world arena are, the easier it will be for its members to protect their own interests," points out Natalya Samoilova, head of research at the investment company Golden Hills-Kapital AM.

Having said that, the creation of alternative associations by no means indicates that the BRICS countries will necessarily quit the World Bank or the IMF, at least not initially, says Ilya Prilepsky.

Currency reserve pool

In addition, the BRICS currency reserve pool is a form of insurance, a cushion of sorts, in the event a BRICS country faces financial problems or a budget deficit. In Soviet times, it would have been called "a mutual benefit society", says Nikita Kulikov, deputy director of the consulting company HEADS. Some countries in the pool will act as a safety net for the other countries in the pool.

The need for such protection has become evident this year, when developing countries' currencies, including the Russian ruble, have been falling.

The currency reserve pool will assist a member country with resolving problems with its balance of payments by making up a shortfall in foreign currency. Assistance can be given when there is a sharp devaluation of the national currency or massive capital flight due to a softer monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve System, or when there are internal problems, or a crisis, in the banking system. If banks have borrowed a lot of foreign currency cash and are unable to repay the debt, then the currency reserve pool will be able to honor those external obligations.

This structure should become a worthy alternative to the IMF, which has traditionally provided support to economies that find themselves in a budgetary emergency.

"A large part of the fund goes toward saving the euro and the national currencies of developed countries. Given that governance of the IMF is in the hands of western powers, there is little hope for assistance from the IMF in case of an emergency. That is why the currency reserve pool would come in very handy," says ambassador Lukov.

The currency reserve pool will also help the BRICS countries to gradually establish cooperation without the use of the dollar, points out Natalya Samoilova. This, however, will take time. For the time being, it has been decided to replenish the authorized capital of the Development Bank and the Currency Reserve Pool with U.S. dollars. Thus, the U.S. currency system is getting an additional boost. However, it cannot be ruled out that very soon (given the threat of U.S. and EU economic sanctions against Russia) the dollar may be replaced by the ruble and other national currencies of the BRICS counties.

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