你敢卖空美国国际集团吗？

你敢卖空美国国际集团吗？

 

美国国际集团作为曾经的世界第一金融巨头，作为一个病猫，现在到底值几个钱？一直是人们猜测的话题。它的价值可能是仁者见仁，智者见智。但是有一点，你可千万不能给予历史上的价位来期待未来的价格走向的。

投资股市就是投资公司，价值投资者是这么说的，我自己也是一个相信价值投资逻辑的投资者。由于写了几本关于金融危机的书，同时，也由于在修改关于格林伯格这位美国国际集团（AIG）前老总的传记，一直就很关注这家曾经的伟大巨人的形象。

由于欠账太多，债务负担太重，公司只好在债权人的逼迫之下，一个个地出卖自己旗下的资产。那么，在如此大面积卖出之后，作为一家企业，公司目前的财务状况又是一个什么样子的呢？下面这篇文章给予的信息，似乎不是很乐观。

在历史上，AIG曾经是让彼得·林奇都羡慕的十年涨十倍的股票。在未来的岁月，什么时候它会（可以）再一次轻装上阵，就是人们的猜测了。

需要说明的是：我自己目前不持有这家公司的股票，也没有任何卖空。这里的信息给予只是出于娱乐的考量，投资决策是每位投资者自己的责任。

 

附录：After shorting subprime, Eisman says short AIG

 4/8/10 | Marketwatch

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- After making millions of dollars betting against subprime mortgages, Steve Eisman of hedge-fund firm FrontPoint Partners is advising investors to short shares of American International Group Inc., according to a recent presentation.

AIG (AIG) owes roughly $111 billion, even after proceeds from sales of "crown jewels" like Alico and AIA, Eisman wrote in the presentation, a copy of which was obtained by MarketWatch Thursday.

That doesn't include any debt AIG may have to assume from its ILFC aircraft-leasing unit and its AGF consumer-finance business, which have more than $13 billion of debt coming due, he said.

AIG's remaining businesses, which include property- and casualty-insurer Chartis and its domestic life and retirement unit, may be worth about $88 billion, Eisman estimated, while noting there's a lot of uncertainty about this valuation.

That leaves a loss of $23 billion, or $36 a share, for common stock holders of AIG, Eisman calculated.

"AIG has no common shareholder equity remaining on its balance sheet," the hedge-fund manager wrote in the presentation. "It would likely be insolvent if not for government support, in our opinion."

In a better-case scenario, AIG's remaining businesses could be worth $116 billion, Eisman estimated. That would leave equity holders with a gain of roughly $7 billion, or $7 a share, he said, while pointing out that this isn't likely.

Eisman joined FrontPoint in 2004 to head a new financial-services hedge fund at the firm. Morgan Stanley (MS) acquired FrontPoint in October 2006, as the housing market was peaking.

By the end of 2007, Eisman's hedge fund had doubled in size to $1.5 billion after bets against subprime mortgages paid off handsomely. He's featured in a new book called "The Big Short" by business writer Michael Lewis, which chronicles the exploits of several hedge-fund managers who made billions of dollars anticipating the housing meltdown and financial crisis.

AIG shares were trading at $38.97 on Thursday afternoon, down 2% from Wednesday's close.