汪翔
随便想想
百度到底值多少
在连续两个季度，盈利报告出台导致股价大跌之后，这一次，那些搏击风浪的玩水者总算有一个开心大笑的时刻：大大好于预期的盈利结果，让百度的股价从620美元一跃突破700美元大关。市场占有率也跳升到64%。更何况，百度的老李还说，中国互联网的搜索，现在已经有75%是在百度完成的。
感谢谷歌的“礼让”，给了自己腾飞的机会。或许有一天，这个来自中国的丑小鸭，会变身为白天鹅，将自以为不可一世的谷歌，在它的地盘上给打得扒下的。世道变化之快，是人们想都想不到的。谷歌同志呀，我看，还是少唱高调，多做点在商业经营上理性一点的事情为好。牛气冲天的公司，那些曾经不可一世的百年老店，快速倒下的例子是再多不过了。
看看百度100倍的市盈率和50倍的动态市盈率，从2009年低位110到现在710的价格变化，在看看牛哄哄的谷歌大哥可怜兮兮的几乎可以和中国银行比美的市盈率。虽然标准普给予谷歌五个星的“最强烈推荐”，而只给予百度两个星的“卖出”警告，但股市似乎不理这个茬，继续我行我素。
今年年初在百度420美元时，遵循华尔街专家的建议，卖空百度，投资那时候640美元价码的谷歌的股民们，现在看着百度710美元的股价和谷歌530美元的低位，看来只有哭泣的份了。
马上百度就要一股分十股了，很多投资者就可以在“低位”卖得百度的股票了。这种时候我们要问问：百度到底值多少？这种问题的回答，还主要是要看市场的大势和人们的心情。按照50倍的动态市盈率，如果百度继续以50%的盈利成长来高歌猛进，似乎也不是太贵。再说，如果它还真的能够在“淘宝”的地盘上立住脚，就会又有一片赚钱的天地。不过，那里的玩家可是国内的“黑道老大”，百度是不可能用“欺负”谷歌这个老外的办法来获得好处的。
有意思的是，在公司业绩如此优良的情况下，百度的CTO和COO同时辞职不干，里面是不是有我们不知道的风险和问题呢？
更多的关于金融的分析，請參閱我的新浪博客：
http://blog.sina.com.cn/wangxiangusa
附录：Baidu On A Roll As Google Fades
Credit where credit is due: Baidu's on a roll.
First quarter earnings at China's leading Internet search engine more than doubled from the prior year, surprising analysts who -- despite their bullishness -- expected far less.
Significantly, Baidu's market share is growing fast, reversing a trend of decline in recent quarters. Data from consultants Analysys International shows Baidu's share of Internet search market revenues rose to 64% in the first quarter from a two-year low of 58.4% in the previous three months.
Google's share, meanwhile, dropped to 30.9% from 35.6%, an expected consequence of its threat to withdraw from China. So, despite forecasts that other Chinese Internet firms would rise on Google's fall, the figures show Baidu is so far the only winner. Its chief executive Robin Li boasted Thursday that the Web site now receives over 75% of internet search traffic in China.
This kind of performance is silencing naysayers. Among their worries: that the company had a personnel problem in January, when the chief technology officer and chief operating officer both quit. Those departures haven't been followed by other high profile exits.
Meanwhile Baidu itself had tempered expectations by saying its transition to a new advertising system would slow down sales. But even it proved too cautious: revenue per customer was up 34.1% in the March-quarter, on year.
Longer term, some analysts wonder if Baidu will pay for its failure so far to develop an online consumer-to-consumer site to challenge Taobao, part of the Alibaba empire which has cornered around 80% of this market. But those who doubt Baidu's ability to challenge such a dominant market position must in turn concede the corresponding impregnability of Baidu's search engine market leadership. Aside from Google, none of Baidu's competitors have more than a 1% market share in Chinese Internet search.
So what's the catch? This Chinese Internet stock is priced like an uber-Chinese Internet stock. Up 51% so far this year, Baidu trades at 52 times expected earnings, leaving much room for a decline should the company hit any bumps. When it was accused by Chinese state television of manipulating search results in late 2008, for example, the stock slid to a mere 20 times expected earnings, according to data from Starmine.
Right now, though, the horizon remains refreshingly bump-free. Those hoping to take on Google's mantle as Baidu's main challenger will need to get their skates on.
