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key issue: C\'s write-down is NOT realized loss,

(2007-11-11 19:21:19) 下一个
that $20B will be a real loss if they are forced to sell at current price,

as of now, C only need to put some money as "reserve", pretty much from right pocket to left pocket,

that's why all the efforts are on "Saving the SIVs", so that no forced liquidation will take place at the worst time,

personally I see there is no chance that the Fed will not, at the end, bail out SIVs. Same as they bailing out LTCM, otherwise all the credit default swaps will all break lose, all the hedges will be down the drain... it would be the global (at least western) finance system as the whole that be possibly destroyed.

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as sina2007 pointed out, as of now, C's cash flow is not affected much,

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I'm just curious, those Chinese officials who were brave enough to put $3B in risky (if not reckless) business as BX, wouldn't C be a prime target on their radar now?

and Mr. Warren B of course... who is so bored with his cash...

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