The symmetry of Brownian motton, something like which is entailed by an efficient market hypothesis, means that once an underlying reaches a price point, it has probability of being above or below there later. Solving this with algebra, we get what is known as the reflec?on principle: the probability of a touch is twice the probability of profit. This means that by managing winners we can almo...[
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generally 50% of max profit for a strangle and 25% of max profit for a straddle[
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1,IVR:>50%
2,Premium:>$1
3,1SDcallandput(84%POTM)
4,45DTE
5,takeprofitat50%ofthepremiumcollected
6,takeloseat2timesofthepremiumcollected
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entertradeat45DTE
%days
--------
103
206
3010
4015
5019
6024
7028
8032
9035
[
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Withshortstranglesbeingaverycommonstrategyweliketouseattastytrade,wedecidedtoconductamegastudyinvestigatingthestrategy'sperformanceindifferentvolatilityenvironments.Forthestudy,wewentbackapproximately5yearsandsolda1standarddeviationstranglewith45days-to-expirationin5differentunderlyingsonthefirsttradingdayofeverymonth.Thisgaveusatotalof314occurrences.Afterplacingthestrangles,wetestedmanagingthestr...[
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AlwayschecktheP/Lgraphbeforeplacingthetrade.Youcanuseyourbrokertoolsorsomefreesoftware.IusuallyusetheTOSsoftwaretogeneratethegraph.
Avoidtradingthroughdividendsdate.
Avoidtradingthroughmajornewslikeearningsannouncements.TheonlyexceptiontothatruleiswhenyouwanttotakeadvantageoftheinflatedIVofthefrontmonth,butthosearehighlyspeculativetradeswhichmighthaveasignificantlossifthestockhasalargepost-ear...[
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IVR:low:<25%
IV:similarinfrontmonthandbackmonth,sinceitissellingfrontmonth,ifpossible,thehigherinfrontmonth,thebetter
Strike:theshortoptionshouldbeclosetotheATMorslightlyOTM,sothatthethetaismaximized
CallorPut:usesPutisslightOTM,usesCallisslightITM
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buyingalwayspicksstrikesoneisITMandanotheroneisOTM
payingatmosthalfofthestrikedifference
lookforpopisabout50%
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volatilityishigh>50%:
sellstraddle(managewinnerat25%maxprofit)
sellstrangle(managewinderat50%maxprofit)
sellironcondor
sellvertical
sellcoveredcall
sellnakedput
volatilityislow:protectagainstsuddenriseinIV
calendar
diagonal
pair
bearishdirectional
debitputspread(ITM/OTM)
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