The	symmetry	of	Brownian	motton,	something	like	which	is	entailed	by	an	efficient	market	hypothesis,	means	that	once	an	underlying	reaches	a	price	point,	it	has	probability				of	being	above	or	below	there	later.	Solving	this	with	algebra,	we		get	what	is	known	as	the	reflec?on	principle:	the	probability	of	a	touch	is	twice	the	probability	of	profit.	This	means	that	by	managing	winners	we	can	almo...[
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          generally	50%	of	max	profit	for	a	strangle	and	25%	of	max	profit	for	a	straddle[
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          1,IVR:>50%
2,Premium:>$1
3,1SDcallandput(84%POTM)
4,45DTE
5,takeprofitat50%ofthepremiumcollected
6,takeloseat2timesofthepremiumcollected
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          entertradeat45DTE
%days
--------
103
206
3010
4015
5019
6024
7028
8032
9035
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          Withshortstranglesbeingaverycommonstrategyweliketouseattastytrade,wedecidedtoconductamegastudyinvestigatingthestrategy'sperformanceindifferentvolatilityenvironments.Forthestudy,wewentbackapproximately5yearsandsolda1standarddeviationstranglewith45days-to-expirationin5differentunderlyingsonthefirsttradingdayofeverymonth.Thisgaveusatotalof314occurrences.Afterplacingthestrangles,wetestedmanagingthestr...[
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AlwayschecktheP/Lgraphbeforeplacingthetrade.Youcanuseyourbrokertoolsorsomefreesoftware.IusuallyusetheTOSsoftwaretogeneratethegraph.
Avoidtradingthroughdividendsdate.
Avoidtradingthroughmajornewslikeearningsannouncements.TheonlyexceptiontothatruleiswhenyouwanttotakeadvantageoftheinflatedIVofthefrontmonth,butthosearehighlyspeculativetradeswhichmighthaveasignificantlossifthestockhasalargepost-ear...[
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          IVR:low:<25%
IV:similarinfrontmonthandbackmonth,sinceitissellingfrontmonth,ifpossible,thehigherinfrontmonth,thebetter
Strike:theshortoptionshouldbeclosetotheATMorslightlyOTM,sothatthethetaismaximized
CallorPut:usesPutisslightOTM,usesCallisslightITM
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          buyingalwayspicksstrikesoneisITMandanotheroneisOTM
payingatmosthalfofthestrikedifference
lookforpopisabout50%
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          volatilityishigh>50%:
sellstraddle(managewinnerat25%maxprofit)
sellstrangle(managewinderat50%maxprofit)
sellironcondor
sellvertical
sellcoveredcall
sellnakedput
volatilityislow:protectagainstsuddenriseinIV
calendar
diagonal
pair
bearishdirectional
debitputspread(ITM/OTM)
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