The yield curve has historically reflected the market’s sense of the economy, particularly about inflation. Investors who think inflation will increase will demand higher yields to offset its effect. Because inflation usually comes from strong economic growth, a sharply upward-sloping yield curve generally means that investors have rosy expectations. An inverted yield curve, by contrast, has been a reliable indicator of impending economic slumps, like the one that started about 11 years ago. In particular, the spread between three-month bills and 10-year Treasuries has inverted before each of the past seven recessions.
ZT: 收益率曲线历史上反映了市场的经济意识，特别是通胀。 认为通胀会增加的投资者将要求更高的收益率以抵消其影响。 由于通货膨胀通常来自强劲的经济增长，因此急剧向上倾斜的收益率曲线通常意味着投资者的期望值很高。 相比之下，反向收益率曲线一直是即将到来的经济衰退的可靠指标，就像大约11年前开始的那样。 特别是，在过去七次经济衰退之前，三个月期票据与十年期国债之间的差距已经反转。