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中国不对称作战独步全球24枚反卫星导弹摧毁美导航系统

(2012-10-17 21:58:33) 下一个
KT-2A火箭美称中国试射DN2反卫星导弹 24枚即可重创美军【环球网综合报道】华盛顿自由灯塔网站10月16日报道称,据美国官员透露,中国军队正准备从地面基地试射一款能力更强的新型反卫星武器--DN-2直升式反卫星导弹。美国情报机构称,该导弹能够破坏位于高轨道的战略卫星,如GPS卫星和间谍卫星。情报机构表示,只要拥有24枚反卫星导弹,中国便能通过破坏全球通信和军事后勤、限制高科技武器所使用的空中导航系统,严重削弱美国的军事行动。这种攻击还能大幅减少美国针对全球目标的情报收集工作,而这是一种关键的战略军事优势。新型反卫星导弹采用直接撞击的杀伤方式报道称,DN-2是一种高轨道拦截器,旨在以高速度撞击卫星从而将其毁坏,是一款重要的战略反太空武器。中国试射这款高轨道反卫星导弹,代表着其卫星攻击能力的一大进步,十多年来北京一直在发展这种能力。高轨道又称地球同步轨道,是主要通信及导航卫星的所在地,即距离地球12,000至22,236英里的轨道上。中国上一次进行反卫星测试是在2007年,当时它摧毁了该国位于低轨道的一枚废弃气象卫星,产生了由成千上万枚金属碎片构成的碎片场。对此,美国官员表示,这些碎片将在100年时间内威胁着轨道卫星和太空旅行者。有鉴于此,这次中国可能不会使用动能拦截器,瞄准老化气象卫星进行冲击试验,也就是说不会像2007年那样做,尽管中国第二次进行主要测试制造出碎片的可能性依旧存在。报道指出,中国可能会采取两种方式试射DN-2导弹。其一,美国官员认为,这次试射最有可能只是展示精确制导直升式导弹飞出数万英里的情景。对此,一名美国官员表示:"如果面对中国的高空反卫星导弹,美国失去了它在高轨道上的战略高地,那么我们便会陷入真正的麻烦。"这是因为美国的全球定位系统卫星(用于导航和导弹精确制导)位于中轨道(大约12,000英里),所以它们可能极易受到新型DN-2导弹的攻击。不管这次导弹试射成功与否,新型DN-2高空反卫星导弹的发展都表明,中国军事正在围绕未来高轨道太空站作战制订计划,尽管北京也在寻求禁止在太空使用武器的国际协定。其二,未来试射DN-2导弹时,中国还可能会瞄准一枚靶弹进行发射,这曾是2010年中国联合反卫星导弹防御测试的一部分。目前,五角大楼发言人仍拒绝就中国的DN-2反卫星项目发表评论。不过,在2007年提交给美国国会的一篇报告中,前里根政府国防决策者迈克尔·皮尔斯伯曾指出,中国军事著作者主张秘密部署精密的反卫星武器系统,诸如当前解放军发展的用于针对美国发动"奇袭"的系统。他表示:"危机期间,即便是针对美国50颗卫星(假设被定为目标的有侦察、导航卫星与通信卫星)的小规模反卫星攻击,也会对美国军队和国民经济造成灾难性影响"。他补充称,中国军事著作还讨论了攻击高轨道GPS卫星的行动。中国的反卫星导弹系统是其渐增不对称作战武库的一个重要组成部分,也是北京保守最为严密的军事秘密之一。国防官员称,只要拥有24枚反卫星导弹,中国便能通过破坏全球通信和军事后勤、限制高科技武器所使用的空中导航系统,严重削弱美国的军事行动。这种攻击还能大幅减少美国针对全球目标的情报收集工作,而这是一种关键的战略军事优势。反卫星武器攻击卫星想象图与中国相比美国的反太空行动明显滞后著名中国军事问题专家理查德·费舍尔表示,目前公众对DN-2导弹所知甚少。DN-2或许是中国指定的一款反卫星导弹与拦截器的组合,即DF-31导弹/KT-2运载火箭,或者DF-31A公路机动洲际弹道导弹/KT-2A运载火箭。费舍尔称:"由 KT-2和KT-2A太空运载火箭衍生而来的反卫星武器能够抵达高轨道,那是美国多数战略监视、通信与导航卫星所使用的轨道。"费舍尔指出,由于中国不会加入已证实的太空控制协议,因此"如果想继续从军事上阻止中国,华盛顿除了构建更多更强的主动及被动防御外别无选择"。然而,事实上,美国在反太空领域的行动一直都比较滞后。对此,美国军事官员介绍称,尽管中国正在继续发展太空武器,但是华盛顿政府却尚未研究或发展所谓的反太空武器和其他能力--它们可以阻止北京使用其反卫星武器、反卫星激光和干扰发射器。军事官员称,反对声音主要集中在美国政府偏爱军备控制谈判和协议,将其作为美国国家安全政策主要组成部分的做法上。今年4月,美国国务院负责军备控制事务的副助理国务卿弗兰克·罗斯(Frank Rose)在一次演讲中表示,太空行为准则可能包括法律上不具备约束力的"透明和建立信任的措施"。不过,五角大楼联合参谋部有关该太空行为准则的一份评估却得出结论称,美国遵守该准则的规定不会损害其在一些领域的太空行动。此外,五角大楼的《国家安全太空战略》从2011年起便很少提及反卫星武器。该战略只提及美国的政策是"劝阻并制止"其他国家发展太空武器,却未提出与此有关的细节。不过,2008年,五角大楼曾间接证明过自身的反卫星能力,当时它使用一枚改进型舰基SM-3反导弹拦截器,击落了一颗坠落的低轨道间谍卫星。再加上一名通晓中国反卫星测试报告的美国官员表示,中国已将试射DN-2导弹的时间从11月初延迟到11月中旬,即11月6日美国大选后,显然是为了避免扰乱美国总统奥巴马的再选行动。这是北京想为奥巴马再选提供帮助的一种迹象。该官员说:"此举暗示着他们希望奥巴马获得连任。"由此看来,如果奥巴马赢得连任,美国在反太空行动方面的滞后可能还会持续下去。文章来源:环球网;编译:知远/北风---------------------------------------------------------------------China to Shoot at High FrontierU.S. Intelligence: China to conduct test of more powerful anti-satellite weapon capable of hitting GPS, spy satellites, but after U.S. electionBY: Bill Gertz October 16, 2012 5:00 amChina’s military is set to conduct a test of a new and more capable anti-satellite missile that United States intelligence agencies say can knock out strategic satellites in high-earth orbit, according to U.S. officials.However, a recent intelligence assessment said the test of the Dong Ning-2 direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon is being delayed in an apparent effort to avoid upsetting President Barack Obama’s reelection bid, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.Intelligence reports from September and this month revealed China will test fire the new DN-2 missile from a ground base sometime in early to mid November.The missile is described by intelligence agencies as a high-earth orbit interceptor designed to destroy satellites by ramming them at high speeds. The intelligence reports called the new missile a strategically significant counterspace weapon, said the officials familiar with the reports.Testing a high-earth orbit anti-satellite missile would represent a major advance in China’s satellite-killing capability, which has been underway for more than a decade. High-earth orbit, also known as geosynchronous orbit, is the location of major communications and navigation satellites, which orbit at a distance of between 12,000 miles and 22,236 miles from earth.China’s last ASAT test in 2007 destroyed a low-earth orbit weather satellite about 558 miles in space, causing an orbiting debris field of tens of thousands of pieces of metal that U.S. officials say will threaten orbiting satellites and human space travelers for 100 years.U.S. officials said it is unlikely China will conduct an impact test of a kinetic kill vehicle against an aging weather satellite as occurred in 2007, although the possibility of a second, major debris-causing test cannot be ruled out.Instead, officials said the test most likely will be a demonstration of a precision-guided direct ascent missile flying out tens of thousands of miles.“If the United States loses the strategic high ground of high-earth orbit [from a Chinese high-altitude ASAT missile], we are in real trouble,” said one U.S. official.U.S. Global Positioning System satellites, used for both navigation and precision missile guidance, are located in medium-earth orbit, or about 12,000 miles, and thus would be vulnerable to the new DN-2.Whether or not the test is successful, development of the new high-altitude DN-2 ASAT reveals that China’s military is planning for future high-orbit space warfare despite seeking international agreements banning weapons in space.China’s January 2007 ASAT test drew protests from the United States and other spacefaring nations, who saw it as a major threat to satellites used for both military and civilian purposes. That test also produced tens of thousands of pieces of space debris which threaten satellites.A second possibility is the DN-2 missile test will be fired against a target missile, as occurred in 2010 as part of a joint Chinese ASAT-missile defense test.Pentagon spokesmen declined to comment on the DN-2 ASAT program.Michael Pillsbury, a former Reagan administration defense policymaker, stated in a 2007 report to Congress that Chinese military writers advocated covert deployment of sophisticated anti-satellite weapons system like the kind now being developed by the People’s Liberation Army for use against the United States “in a surprise manner without warning.”“Even a small scale anti-satellite attack in a crisis against 50 U.S. satellites—assuming a mix of targeted military reconnaissance, navigation satellites, and communication satellites—could have a catastrophic effect not only on U.S. military forces, but on the U.S. civilian economy,” said Pillsbury, currently with the Hudson Institute. Chinese military writings also have discussed attacks on GPS satellites that are located in high-earth orbit, he stated.ASAT a top-secret programChina’s anti-satellite missile system is a key element of the communist state’s growing arsenal of asymmetric warfare weapons, and remains one of Beijing’s most closely guarded military secrets.Defense officials have said that with as few as 24 ASAT missiles, China could severely weaken U.S. military operations by disrupting global communications and military logistics, as well as by limiting celestial navigation systems used by high-technology weapons. Such an attack also would severely degrade U.S. intelligence gathering efforts against global targets, a key strategic military advantage.A U.S. official familiar with reports of the ASAT test said China’s delay in conducting the test until after the Nov. 6 election is a sign Beijing wants to help President Obama’s reelection campaign. “It implies they’d rather have him reelected,” said the official.The Obama administration has adopted conciliatory policies toward China’s military buildup and its large-scale human rights abuses. Critics say the administration also failed to hold Beijing accountable for its unfair trade practices and currency manipulation.The administration’s questionable policies were revealed by a 2009 State Department cable that quoted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as saying, “How do you deal toughly with your banker?”—a reference to China’s potentially coercive leverage over the United States through its large holdings of U.S. debt securities.Richard Fisher, a Chinese military affairs specialist, said little is known publicly of the DN-2 missile. However, the DN-2 may be China’s designation for an ASAT missile and kill vehicle combination mounted on launchers dubbed KT-2, or KT-2A. This ASAT weapon is based on DF-31 or DF-31A road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles, respectively.“ASATs derived from the KT-2 and KT-2A space launch vehicles have the potential to reach high earth orbits used by many strategic U.S. surveillance, communication, and navigation satellites,” said Fisher, with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.Fisher said in 2002, during a military show in China, the KT-2A was touted by Chinese officials as having a 2,000-kilogram payload that could reach high-earth orbits.“Since its appearance a decade ago, the KT series of space launch vehicles presaged what we now know, that a key Chinese strategic goal has been to deny outer space as a sanctuary to support American military operations,” Fisher said.A KT-1 microsatellite launcher was displayed at the Zhuhai air show in 2000, and “it was fairly obvious that this could become the basis for an ASAT, and it was used as the basis for the SC-19 ASAT demonstrated successfully in January 2007,” Fisher said.Because China will not join a verifiable space control agreement, “Washington has little choice, if it is to continue to deter China militarily, but to build far greater redundancy, passive and active defenses for outer space,” he said.China ASAT caused space debrisU.S. officials estimate that China’s 2007 ASAT test that destroyed an aging weather satellite in low-earth orbit now accounts for 45 percent of all space debris in low-earth orbit.After a year of stonewalling by China on the test, an official U.S. demarche, or protest note, was sent to Beijing in January 2008. According to a copy of the note made public by Wikileaks, the protest warned the Chinese government, “Any purposeful interference with U.S. space systems will be interpreted by the United States as an infringement of its rights and considered an escalation in a crisis or conflict.”“The United States reserves the right, consistent with the [United Nations] Charter and international law, to defend and protect its space systems with a wide range of options, from diplomatic to military,” stated the protest, made by then-U.S. Ambassador to China Clark Randt.A joint State Department-Pentagon report to Congress on export controls made public in April states that China is “developing space-based methods to counter ballistic missile defenses of the United States and our allies, including anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.”“As China advances in operational space capabilities, it is actively focusing on how to destroy, disrupt, or deny U.S. access to our own space assets,” the report said.China is developing and refining its ASAT weapons as part of a “multi-dimensional program to limit or prevent the use of space-based assets by potential adversaries during times of conflict,” the report said.“In addition to the direct-ascent [missile] ASAT program, China is developing other technologies and concepts for kinetic and directed energy for ASAT missions,” including electronic jamming of satellite communications and lasers that disrupt satellites, the report said.ASAT weapons “have significant implications for anti-access/area-denial efforts against the United States in Taiwan Strait contingencies,” the report said. Those weapons and capabilities are being developed by China as a means to force the U.S. military out of Asian waters and territory and make it more difficult for U.S. forces to get into the region during a conflict, such as a defense of Taiwan. Other anti-access area denial weapons include anti-ship ballistic missiles, cyber warfare capabilities, and submarines.Defense Intelligence Agency director Lt. Gen. Ronald L. Burgess told Congress in February that “China successfully tested a direct ascent anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) missile and is developing jammers and directed-energy weapons for ASAT missions.”Burgess said that as “a prerequisite for ASAT attacks, China’s ability to track and identify satellites is enhanced by technologies from China’s manned and lunar programs as well as technologies and methods developed to detect and track space debris.”Another ASAT test by China will likely undermine the Obama administration’s controversial space arms control proposal, introduced in January. Many in the Pentagon oppose the International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities over concerns it would place limits on U.S. space capabilities.U.S. lagging in counterspaceDespite China’s continuing development of space weapons, the administration has done no research or development into so-called counterspace weapons and other capabilities that could deter China from its ASAT and anti-satellite laser and jammer arms, according to military officials. The opposition is based on the administration’s preference for arms control negotiations and agreements as a major element of its U.S. national security policies, the officials said.Frank Rose, deputy assistant secretary of state for arms control, said in a speech in April that the space code of conduct would include legally nonbinding “transparency and confidence-building measures.”However, a Pentagon Joint Staff assessment of the space code of conduct concluded that U.S. adherence to the code’s provisions would hurt U.S. space operations in several areas.The Pentagon’s National Security Space Strategy from 2011 makes little mention of counterspace weapons. It states that U.S. policy is “to dissuade and deter” others from developing space weapons, without providing specifics.The Pentagon indirectly demonstrated an ASAT capability in 2008 when it used a modified ship-based SM-3 anti-missile interceptor to shoot down a falling, low-earth orbit spy satellite that was considered a danger because its fuel tank might have passed through the atmosphere and landed on earth.Cables detail PRC’s first ASAT testAccording to a classified Jan. 12, 2010, State Department cable made public by Wikileaks, China conducted its most recent ASAT test on Jan. 11 of that year.According to the cable, an ASAT missile designated SC-19 was fired from China’s Korla Missile Test Complex and successfully intercepted a CSS-X-11 medium-range ballistic missile launched from the Shuangchengzi Space and Missile Center.The two missiles were tracked by U.S. missile warning satellites to an intercept point at an altitude of about 155 miles in space.Until then, the SC-19 had been used previously to boost China’s first successful direct-ascent anti-satellite intercept on Jan. 11, 2007, when a missile rammed into China’s FY-1C weather satellite.“Previous SC-19 DA-ASAT flight-tests were conducted in 2005 and 2006,” the 2010 cable said. “This test is assessed to have furthered both Chinese ASAT and ballistic missile defense [BMD] technologies.”The cable contained a U.S. protest note to China on the 2010 test seeking an explanation for Chinese officials about the purpose of the test and “what steps were taken to minimize the creation of orbital debris.”The cable said that since the 2007 ASAT test, the United States had urged China not to conduct further space weapons tests.An earlier cable revealed that U.S. intelligence agencies had advance word of the 2010 space weapons test, and noted that China was not expected to provide notification in advance of the test, which proved accurate.Other State Department cables revealed conflicting statements from Chinese officials on whether China planned to conduct future ASAT tests. Chinese Foreign Ministry official He Yafei unequivocally stated to U.S. officials in June 2008 that China would not conduct future ASAT tests. In July, China Lt. Gen. Zhang Qinsheng said there were no plans for an ASAT test in the near future.
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