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[Solar scan] FSLR vs CSCO
(2007-12-28 11:07:21)


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GA, some background facts, (only for interested)
(2007-12-27 21:12:52)
onedaymarketmightgetaroundtheideathatGAisnotthelatercomertotheparty,GAisactuallythenewrulemaker,
its"freeplay"modeforsomeormostplayersforcedSNDAandthenprettymuchthewholeindustrytofollow,
itsnetearningpower,whileit'ssustainabilityisstillaquestion,hasreachedtothetopofindustry,
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thefollowingisapieceofpositivereportonGA,whileitmighthasitsownbiasaswell,therecouldb...[阅读全文]
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GA， 与LDK 图比较
(2007-12-24 10:12:53)

图上有千言，
反趋势操作，风险巨大，心理折磨巨大，非此道者莫入，
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LDK, \'The Wolves Return to LDK\' (ZT)
(2007-12-22 19:54:54)
http://www.chipstocktrader.com/wolves.ldk.htm
CommentaryforDecember21,2007TheWolvesReturntoLDKBecauseIthoughtLDKdidn'tgetafairshakefromtheanalystcommunityinOctober,Iwrotethreearticlesonitshastydemise[LDKStory(Oct.15,2007);LDK&theSevenSamurai(Oct.17,2007);andSell-SideAnalysis(Oct.23,2007)]Afteryesterday'sconferencecallIstillthinkLDKisabuy.Psychologygovernstradinginourhighlyconnectedmarket,a...[阅读全文]
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为什么LDK？ 有庄，恶庄，庄暴露了，
(2007-12-21 08:15:47)
公司有风险吗？当然。巨大风险。可能全部清零。
但不比别的太阳能更多。
今天Blue和Risk也看到了，和TSL同价（或更低），业绩比TSL好30%，中长期发展也不比TSL差，
YGE业绩只有LDK的一半不到，价38，
marginofsafety,
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把LDK打到38，PJ/GS能不能？
能！
但是，打到之后呢？
想要猎庄的，不止只有几个散户，
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FSLRSTPWFR当然是巨好的股[阅读全文]
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【LDK】游戏开始透明了
(2007-12-19 20:53:49)
1,今天yahoomsgboard已经没人提Audit的事儿了.
2,CCsolid.几个又笨又傲慢的Analyst的表现，都被不客气地一棒打回。PJ的那个笨蛋试图含沙映射margin比别人高，回答：“wecan'tcommentonothers,butwecancommentonLDK.IfyoutraveltoChinaandseewhatkindsoffeedstockweuse,youwillunderstand...".GS的SherlyTang胆战心惊地问两个鸡毛蒜皮的"howmuchprepayment"kindofquestions,CFOsaid,"readyourQ3report,alre...[阅读全文]
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LDK 2008 earning estimate $2-$2.5,(updated version)
(2007-12-19 18:29:23)
LDK2008shipmentisplannedat530MW,
currentlysaleprice$2.27perW,
quarterlydeclinerate1.5%
==>rev$1.1B,(growthrateroughly120%)
grossmargin25%to30%
==>grossproft$275--$330m
opcost,$30-35m,
==>netprofit$240m--$300m(growthroughly100%to150%)
fullydilutedshares,112.5mnow,maybe120mbyend2008
==>2008dilutednetearningpershare:$2.0-$2.5
now,it'supforthemarket,ie,growthfun...[阅读全文]
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LDK，to use a mediocre PE, fair value 60-62
(2007-12-19 13:34:06)
takeTSL,$0.29,price48,48*0.37/0.29=61.25,
noticeTSLisanaverageplayer,LDKhasalreadystartedtogainarockstarstatusamongsolarsduringtorecentexposure,
ifCCpansoutwell,andpeoplegetexcitedaboutfuture,(peoplealwaysdo,don'tthey?,STPcanhaveprice80whileearningat$0.33）,thenitwillbeevenmoreinteresting,
butItendtobelieveoptionMMswanttoatleastholdthroughthisFriday,[阅读全文]
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[GA\'s FA homework] knowledge is power!
(2007-12-19 10:08:09)

1,lastQER:　http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071119/cnm033.html?.v=8,
2,lastQCC:　http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/1/87551.html
3,IPOmaterial:　http://www.secinfo.com/$/SEC/Registrant.asp?CIK=1415016
４，generalbackground(important!particularlythevideo)
http://tag.blog.sohu.com/%CA%B7%D3%F1%D6%F9/[阅读全文]
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[GA trading plan] if you do it, do it for mid term,
(2007-12-19 09:54:18)
forthemostpart,thisisapositiontrademuchlikeLDK,
rightnowweareagainsttrend,therationalbehindusrightnowisnotmarketaction,intermsofpricevol,orshorttermsharesupplydemand,orwhoiswinningorlosingwiththeirpositions,directionoftheleastresistence,oryearendselling,orblahblahblah,
therationalisvalue,
valuecanandoftendoestakealongertimetomanifestitself,
ifyouareinTAforaquickflipwithinafewdays,a...[阅读全文]
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