猛牛 - 博客 | 文学城

(2018-05-05 16:08:46)

太多的钱不在股市里，都在外面等着。（1）房价那么高，没有赚头，（2）债券价格那么高，FED加息，价格走低。（3）CASH吧，通胀为2%，每年贬值2% 只有股价已有调整，估值适中，前途看好。看看下面的支票账户的历年余额就知道，大量大量的闲钱在外面等着。支票账户只是个缩影而已，就算全进股市回到历史水平也只有$1000-1500B,而大量的闲钱可能有几万或几十[阅读全文]

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俺最新研究结果表明，S&P500 在2018年内会达到3100附近

(2018-04-29 17:21:45)

牛牛的好日子，快来了。拭目以待。。。。。。。 [阅读全文]

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(zt)Reflections on corrections

(2018-04-29 16:43:09)

OneFidelityexpertlookstopastcorrectionsforcluestotoday'sopportunities.Keytakeaways Since1960,therehaveonlybeen10correctionsintheUSstockmarketassteepandfastasthepullbackinFebruary,whichhada10%declinein9tradingdays. Historically,stockshavegenerallyperformedwellaftersuchsharpcorrections,withpositive12-monthreturnsfollowing8ofthe10corrections,andanaveragegainof17%. Lookingbackto1955,themarkethasha...[阅读全文]

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（zt) 2018 Stock Correction: 5 Historical Examples & Market Retur

(2018-04-29 14:51:07)

https://www.seeitmarket.com/2018-stock-correction-5-historical-examples-market-returns-17786/FACTSINSTEADOFFEARInaseparatepost,wecompared2018tonumerousplungeperiodsinhistory(1955,1987,1998,2000,2007,2011,and2015).Havingstudiedmarketsforyears,wecanconfidentlysaythedatawehaveinhandin2018,onmultipletimeframes,looksalmostnothinglikethedatawehadinhandbeforeplungesin2000and2007.Themostsimilarperiodsare1...[阅读全文]

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（ZT） Stock market history shows 2018 could be just as forecast s

(2018-04-29 14:44:19)

Historyisonthesideofthosewhothinkstockswillseesmallergainsnextyearandacorrection. Strategasanalystsstudiedyearswheretherewereshallowsell-offsintheS&P500,likethisyear,andtheyfoundtheycorrelatedtostrongmarketperformance,likethisyear. Butinthefollowingyear,therewasanaverage12percentcorrectionandanaveragegainofjust5percent,coincidentallyjustlikeanalystsareforecastingfornextyear. St...[阅读全文]

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同学们注意了，俺有重大发现

(2018-04-28 20:52:18)

比特币总是比股市提前一个月来大动作，或大涨或大跌。请看下图,太不可思议了： [阅读全文]

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It’s the change in bond yields, not the level, that should worry

(2018-04-28 17:56:07)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-the-change-in-bond-yields-not-the-level-that-should-worry-stock-market-investors-2018-04-27There’snothingmagicalabouta3%10-yearyield:RosenbergInvestorsarehotlydebatingwhethera3%yieldonthe10-yearTreasurynotewillupendthestockmarket.ButDavidRosenberg,chiefeconomistatGluskinSheff,saysthatdebatedoesn’tcorrectlyframetheissue.Instead,investorsshouldbefocu...[阅读全文]

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和历史相比，当前股市价格严重低估

(2018-04-28 16:56:28)

华尔街拿bondyield说事，就是骗骗那些熊熊而已。单就bondyield来说，当前股市价格严重低估，请看下图： [阅读全文]

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股市数学模型

(2018-04-28 15:14:22)

常常听人说，股市这么高谁接盘，谁来买。没人买，就会跌。这要看情况。实际上，股市的推高是自然而然的，日常的日冲交易就可以推高股市，根本不需要增加额外资金的进场。数学模型如下：假如A，B两人各有10元现金。A用3元买了某股票Z，A想获利套现，加价出让，结果以4元卖给了B。B再加价以5元卖回给A。A再以6元卖给B。A，B共有现金始终为20元，股市仅凭现有的[阅读全文]

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好吧，既然很多人喜欢看图，那俺就用图解为什么现在是历史性大底

(2018-04-26 19:43:38)

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