似曾相识
有人说过，股市短期的变动，心理因素起90%的作用，基本面只占10%。
博文
(2019-12-22 18:08:27)
现在股市很像2017底。2017底股市在全球经济好转下全面上涨。SPY+7.3%QQQ+8.5IWM+4%VGK(Europe)+8.5%VWO(emergingmarkets)+13.8TLT-0.4%TVIX-15%GLD:+6.6%UUP-4.2%[阅读全文]
(2019-12-20 13:11:22)
SPY继续Melt-upSPY:SPYstockpricepredictionTVIX:TVIXstockpredicationUGAZpredictionTSLApredication,NFLXpredictionTsla,nflxarehighlycorrelatedtoQQQ.TVIXisnegativelycorrelatedtoSPY.UGAZisnotcorrelatedtoequitymarket.[阅读全文]
(2019-12-17 12:56:27)
It'saratherquietdayinstockmarket.Allthreeindicestradeinanarrowrangewithlowvolumes.It'snotasurpriseafterthecrazyrallyinaveryshortperiodoftime.Iseemuchlessdiscussionoftradingtipsonseekingalpha.Themarketdon'tmoveevenwiththeoptimisticdatafromhomepermit,homesalesandUSmanufacturingdata.There'snotmuchdatareleasefromgovernmenttomorrow.I'dexpectasmallpullbacktomorrow.
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(2019-12-16 20:34:53)
StckDailyPerformance(Mon.Dec16,2019):Winners
StockDailyPerformance(Mon.Dec16,2019):Winners i Ticker Description DailyReturn Prediction IntradaySignals 1 TSLA TeslaMotors 5.41% Prediction Intraday 2...[阅读全文]
StockDailyPerformance(Mon.Dec16,2019):Winners i Ticker Description DailyReturn Prediction IntradaySignals 1 TSLA TeslaMotors 5.41% Prediction Intraday 2...[阅读全文]
(2019-12-12 23:00:16)
ETFDailyPerformance(Thu.Dec12,2019):Winners i Ticker Description DailyReturn Forecast Intraday Wave Practice 1 GUSH DirexionDailyOilGasExplorandProdtn3xbullETF 11.87% Forecast Intraday Waves Practice 2 UGAZ VelocityShares3xLongNaturalGasETN 11% Forecast Intraday Waves Practice 3 S...[阅读全文]
(2019-12-12 10:15:22)
ThecrazinessofSPYhasbeenunprecedentedinpast11weeks,atthepaceof0.5%inceaseperweektoreachnewhighsfromSept.12,toDec.12,2019.Thebestrunbeforewas0.25%aweekfromJune3,2019toJuly26,2019.
Theyaredrivenbyacombinationof1)lowerinterestrate,2)expansionofFedbalancesheet,and3)improvedworldeconomyconditions.Themajorforcebehindtherunisprobablythemarketmadness.TherapidsurgeinSPYpricedefysthefundamentalgravityofS...[阅读全文]
(2019-12-11 18:54:51)
SPY过去15年有90次向上的波动。其中涨幅超过10%的有17次。11次是大跌后的反弹。正常涨幅超过10%的只有6次。现在SPY回调2%的可能性是94%，回调5%的可能性是90%.http://www.smarttrading.club/SPY/price-forecast.html下面是那6次涨幅超过10%也没有回调的链接。耐心看也许会发现点什么。除了技术指标还有volatilitytrend,riskpreference,fedbalance,fedfundrate,yieldcurveandcreditspread.运气好就是赌小概率还对了。1.htt[阅读全文]
(2019-11-30 09:07:54)
1.
从一月三号到十一月二十九号，如果对10次UGAZ，DGAZ。一万刀现在变成二百二十万刀。错几次可能就见了外婆。如果对10次,但每次抓住50%的波动，仍然涨21倍。
http://www.smarttrading.club/DGAZ/wave-structures.html
http://www.smarttrading.club/UGAZ/wave-structures.html
2.
UWT，DWT对七次，一年一万变四十三万
http://www.smarttrading.club/UWT/wave-structures.html?
http://www.smarttrading.club...[阅读全文]
(2019-11-29 16:59:38)
股市里波浪大小的尺寸是标准偏差(standarddeviation),而不是A，B，C，D。SPY的标准偏差大概是1%。SPY的小波大概是正负10%左右波动。SPY的大波大概是正负20%左右波动.SPY过去5年只出现两次大波，川总的2018年的减税和老炮今年的减息和扩表。FA只能抓住大波，TA只能抓住小波。这是观察过去SPY波浪变化而发现的。http://www.smarttrading.club/SPY/wave-structures.htmlQQQ，UNG，USO和很多个股波浪变化也[阅读全文]
(2019-11-28 18:55:27)
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