博文
(2009-06-25 12:00:39)
Nothing.It’sthatsimplereally.Thereisnovolumeandnofollowthrough.Thisisnottosaythatstockswon’tjerkaroundbecausetheydo.Thisiswhatsuckstradersinthinkingtheyaregettinginearlyonamovethatdoesn’tappear.
(ExcerptsfromInterviewWithJeaYuhttp://www.undergroundtrader.com/)
[阅读全文]
(2009-06-25 11:55:14)
Everystockandtradinginstrumentgoesthroughthe4partsoftrend.ThefirstandlongestpartistheCONSOLIDATION.Thisbasicallymeansthe5/15-periodmovingaveragesaregoingsideways,flat.Thisisalsotheperiodwheretradersgetchoppedthemosttryingtogetinearlyonabreakoutorbreakdown.Consolidationshavethelightestvolumesotryingtotradethoseusuallyjustendthetraderupwithwigglesandlotsoflittlestops.
Fromthatconsolidation,...[阅读全文]
(2009-06-25 11:13:41)
Oneoftheworstproblemswithtradersisover-tradingatightrangeandlightvolumemarketperiod.Perhaps,sincetheactionseemssoslow,traderstendtobelieveitislessrisky.Therealityisthatmostofthistimeperiodisnothingmorethannoisethatwillatbestchopyouaroundforsmallgainsandusuallylossesandatworstsqueezeyouorleanagainstyouwhenthebreakformsonvolume.Rememberthatthemajorityofthemarketdayiscomprisedofnoise.Tradersneed...[阅读全文]
(2009-06-25 11:06:54)
Tradersfallintotwotypesofstyles.AScalperissomeonethatisriskaverseandlooktoplaylargersharesforsmallermovesintheshortestperiodoftime.Scalperslikefastandpowerfulmovestocapitalizeonthemomentumofabreak.Thesetraderswillbeutilizingmostlythe1-minuteand3-minutetimeframes.Eventhoughtheystillneedtobeawareofthedirectionofthe8/13-minutetimeframes,theywillprimarilyrelyonthe1-minuteand3-minute.Itisveryimpor...[阅读全文]
(2009-04-10 14:26:22)
Tradingwithoutaplan.
Havingunrealisticexpectations.
Over-tradingyouraccount,intermsoftradingfrequencyortradingsize.
Notdefiningyourtradesyouaregoingtotake.
Notdefiningtherisks.Smalllossturnsintoabigloss.
Notusingstops.
Wantingtoberightinsteadofmakingmoney.
Listeningtoothers.Blindleadsablind.
Gettinganopinionandtradingit.
Usingtoomanyoscillatorsorindicatorst...[阅读全文]
(2009-04-09 07:32:13)
Tradingisalosers'game.Hewhomanagestolosewellwinsintheend.Alwaysrememberthis.Makeityoursecondnature.Itwillsaveyoumuchheadacheandlotsof$$$.
Learntobewrong,fast.
Asstatedby"PhantomofThePits"asruleNo.1intrading:
Inalosinggamesuchastrading,weshallstartagainstthemajorityandassumewearewronguntilprovencorrect!(Wedonotassumewearecorrectuntilprovenwrong.)Positionsestablishedmustbe...[阅读全文]
(2009-04-07 18:59:27)
Allthosewhobelieveinpsychokinesisraisemyhand.Theearlybirdgetstheworm,butthesecondmousegetsthecheese.Ialmosthadapsychicgirlfriendbutsheleftmebeforewemet.OK,sowhat'sthespeedofdark?Howdoyoutellwhenyou'reoutofinvisibleink?Ifeverythingseemstobegoingwell,youhaveobviouslyoverlookedsomething.Supportbacteria-they'retheonlyculturesomepeoplehave.Wheneverythingiscomingyourway,you'reinthewronglane.Ambitio...[阅读全文]
(2009-04-04 07:16:04)
Successfultrading=60%psychology+30%moneymanagement+10%system(method)
Goodtradingtendstobeboring.
[阅读全文]
(2009-03-29 10:37:48)
HOWTHEFORMULAWORKSAdescriptionoftheGaussiancopulafunctionfromanarticleinWiredmagazinebyFelixSalmon:
Considersomethingsimple,likeakidinanelementaryschool:Let'scallherAlice.Theprobabilitythatherparentswillgetdivorcedthisyearisabout5percent,theriskofhergettingheadliceisabout5percent,thechanceofherseeingateachersliponabananapeelisabout5percent,andthelikelihoodofherwinningtheclassspellingbeeis...[阅读全文]
(2009-03-29 10:31:15)
Mywifehasfoundthisstoryrecently.ItwaspublishedbyTorontoStarnewspaper;seeithere.Thisisastoryaboutdramaticresultsofapplyingstatisticsinanotcorrectway.IwouldnotblametheguythoughIwouldliketodiscussthecoreofthisproblem.Inareallife,theproblemisverysimple.Itistheproblemofevaluationoftherisksrelatedtofinancialdata.Itisnotjustanacademicexercise;itaffectsourlivesinaverypracticalsense.Asanexample,yourfr...[阅读全文]
