苍海泛舟

方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨
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同事到外地出差,当地的同事热情好客,当晚便在一特色酒店的包间设宴接风。男男女女十几个人落座后便不停的聊天,只有一个人在点菜。点好了,征求大伙儿意见:“菜点好了,有没有要加的?”
    这种情况,我们在北京一般是让小姐把点过的菜名儿报一遍。于是一位北京的哥们儿说:“小姐,报报。”
    小姐看了他一眼,没动静。
    “小姐,报一下![阅读全文]
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(2007-08-31 19:05:11)
--Questionsthatcouldpreventyoufromfallingintotrap
TakingtoomuchnoticeofnewsonCNBCandfinancialwebsitessuchasYahoofinancial,CNNMoneyandMarketWatch.comisoneofthemainreasonwhysomanyretailtradersgetthemarketallwrong.
Verysimple,mostnewsishypeandisnotreallyforyourbenefit.Thesooneryoucanacceptthispoint,thequickeryouwillmakeyourtradetoservethebestofyourinterestinacold,independentway,focusingonfact...[阅读全文]
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1.S&Pfailedtobreakabove1480levelw/tit'sbesteffort.
2.Bush'sspeechaboutpolicycompromisetosubprimehomwownerislongterm,anditistoolateanddoesnothelpmuch.Andshorttermeffectalreadypricedin.
3.LowinflationratethismorninghelppeopletothinkFEDhasmoreflexibilitytocutrateifnecessary,thatpushthemarkethigher.
Itdoesnotchangefundamentalweaknessweareexperienced.Soitwillbeshortlifed.
4.Financia...[阅读全文]
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(2007-08-30 09:11:22)
1.大盘的上下波动还会持续直到确定Fed是否减利率。
2.周二的跌和昨天的涨都是由于对FED是否减利率倾向的解读而产生的短期现象。
3.周三公布Bernake的信,是FED的护盘举措,以防市场再度陷入恐慌。随后大盘的大举上扬,是Trader有持无恐的疯狂。
4.金融危机才刚开始,最坏的情况还未到来。要做好准备。
5.年底前不会见新高。
我会在另一篇祥述原因。
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我们正经历一场完美的风暴
Yensuddenlydrop-2.0to114.34beforemarketopen
Thecarrytraderhadheavyloseandunwindingtheirpositionlikecrazy.
CFCusedupallit'scredit11.6Btobattlewithit'scommercialpapercrisis
FBDinjectanother5B
DOWtakedowncriticalsupportat12800,thenextonearefarawayto12340
S&Pbreak1392it'slastdefencelinebefore1363
Arewegoingtosee400+drop?Thepossibilityishigh
...[阅读全文]
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(Damn写好的一长篇全丢了.不想再写一遍.只短短的写点吧)
1.大盘反弹无力,一周内两次反弹失利绝不是好事.
2.明天下看Dow12800,S&P1391(80weeksMA)如破位,则大盘深不见底.
3.下一个支撑位:Dow12340(300MA)S&P1363(2/27低)Naz2396(80weeksMA)
4.S&P1400比昨天更脆弱.部分Puts已经获利了结.失去支撑作用.明天1400必破.
5.这次调整会持续较长时间.因为已不单纯是牛市调整.伴随着金融危[阅读全文]
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Althoughthereisinitialpopshortafteropentoday,Dowdoesnotcomedownmuch.Soitdoesnotgetenoughpowertobounceback.
CloseNMX130putswithniceprofit.
Themarketisstackthere,todayisnotgoodfortrading.Sojustwatch.
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(2007-08-15 06:51:22)
Thosepointsshouldserveasturningpointfortoday.Itmaynotreachthatfar,butideallyDowtouch12800willbeverygoodformarketrecovery.
IfBothDowandS&Pcancloseabovethatlevel,itispositivesignandmeaningthedowntrendwillbepauseandstarttorebound.The"shorts"andputsaretoomanyandmakesecuritiesbecome"tooshort"fortheshortterm.Oncebroadmarketstopdecline,andstartrebound,thosewillbecomepotencial&...[阅读全文]
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虽然CPI符合预期,但人们如惊弓之鸟,还无法从惊恐的情绪中走出来.
但连续的跌盘,已经造成一些板块严重超卖.Put/cal严重失衡.这也创造了大盘短期触底反弹的机会.
短空要当心.
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如昨天所预期的,今天三大指数平开低走,收盘皆创新低.
Dow-207to13028
S&P-26to1426
Naz-43to2499
RUT-17to762
除RUT外,三大指数今天创低,也收在最低.预示明天要再下一城.
虽然测底是股市分析师的大忌,尤其是靠它吃饭的,更是三忌其口.
但关键点位对操作有重要意义.很多高手虽嘴上不说,但心里都有个数.
就把这数说出来,供参考:(我不是分析师,我怕谁?)
Dow12800
S[阅读全文]
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