什么时候应该贪婪(谈股市抄底)？(7/6/08)

在股市里大家都知道，在别人恐慌的时候，就是买进的最佳机会。

以下是衡量恐慌程度的三大指标(Vix, put/call, bullish/bearish Investment advisors spread).

1. Bullish/bearish Investment advisors spread

Over the past few weeks is that the % of Bearish Investment Advisors is once again 10% greater than the % of Bullish Investment Advisors (point A).   Since the mid 1990's this has been a very rare occurrence as shown by the chart below as there has only been "4" of them  (points B) prior to this latest occurrence.  Also note that each one was eventually followed by a substantial oversold rally (points B to C).  

The last time the % of Bearish Investment Advisors was 10% more than the % of Bullish Investment Advisors was in mid March (point E) which was followed by a 14% rally in the S&P 500 over a 44 day period (points F to G).


2. Vix

   Now the bigger question is has there been enough fear generated among investors to allow for a bottom to develop in the near term?  If we take a look at a weekly chart of the Volatility Index (VIX) so far the VIX has only risen up to the mid 20's (point I).   Keep in mind the last three times the S&P 500 made a significant bottom (points J) which was then  followed by a substantial oversold rally (points J to K) the VIX rose well above the 30 level (points L).   



3. Put/Call

   If we look at a 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio, in the past, when it has risen at or above the 1.2 level (points M) this has been followed by an oversold rally (points N to O) of varying magnitudes.   Currently the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio is still well below the 1.2 level.  




虽然Bullish/bearish investment  spread 已倒extremely bearish level. 但是Vix
和Put/call还是不够恐慌。 如果有一天股市大掉，Vix升到底35 或35以上，那时就是放心捡钱的大好机会