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high oil price vs low mkt index

(2006-07-13 03:07:35) 下一个

油需求季節性放緩

近期油價自高位急挫,應是油價的慣常季節調整。油價每年在美國暑假完結、秋冬季未至時,多會自夏季高位回落,當天氣逐步轉寒,油價又會重展升浪。箇中原因,是暑假為美國駕車旅行的季節,汽油需求特別大,故踏入每年9月,煉油廠都會在這個較淡的季節減產維修,原油需求因而放緩,當天氣轉寒,取暖油需求增加,油價又會復升,直至下一年的春季,天氣轉暖,又會是油價回落的時候。


oil had strong support near its 200ema and make high and higher since 1998's lowest. every time when oil price made new high, dow dropped to its 200ema area.
July-sept: hurricane season + china/india effect; oil will be a hot sector.
trade strategy: buy oil/ethonal stocks, buy mental/gold/steel for inflation hedage, selected biotech and healthcare will be strong. 
 short technology(semi, internet,network, ...)/retail/airline/homebuilder(long term bearish)....

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