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10年后不可思议的世界

(2019-03-11 04:16:27) 下一个

5-10年后,医疗健保、自驾汽车、教育、服务业都将面临被淘汰的危机!

1. Uber 是一家软体公司,它没有拥有汽车,却能够让你「随叫随到」有汽车坐,现在,它已是全球最大的Taxi公司了。

2. Airbnb 也是一家软体公司,它没有拥有任何旅馆,但它的软体让你能够住进世界各地愿出租的房间,现在,它已是全球最大的旅馆业了。

3. 2016年5月,Google的电脑打败全球最厉害的南韩围棋高手,因为它开发出有人工智能(AI)的电脑,使用能够「自己学习」的软体,所以它的AI能够加速度的进步,达到比专家原先预期的、提前10年的成就。

4. 在美国,使用IBM 的Watson电脑软体,你能够在几秒内,就有90%的准确性的法律顾问,比较起只有70%准确性的人为律师,既便捷又便宜。

所以,你如果还有家人亲友在读大学的法律系,建议他们停学省钱,因为市场已大幅的缩减了,未来的世界,只需要现在10%的专业律师就够了。

5. Watson 也已经能够帮病人检验癌症,而且比医生正确4 倍。

6. 脸书也有一套AI的软体可以比人类更准确的鉴察(辨识)人脸,而且无所不在。

7. 到了2030年,AI的电脑会比世界上任何的专家学者还要聪明。

8. 2017年起,会自动驾驶的汽车就可以在公众场所使用。约在2020年,整个汽车工业就会遭遇到全面性的改变,你再不需要拥用汽车。你可以用手机叫自动驾驶的车,来带你到你想去的目的地。

9. 未来的世界,你再也不必拥有车,或花时间加油、停车、排队去考驾照、交保险费,尤其是城市,将会很安静,走路很安全,因为90%的汽车都不见了,以前的停车场,将会变成公园。

10. 现在,平均每10万公里就有一次车祸,造成每年全球有约120万人的死亡。以后有AI电脑控制的自动驾驶汽车,平均每1000万公里才有一次车祸,约减少一百万人死亡。因为保险费和需要保险的人极少,保险公司会面临更多的挑战。

11. 大部份的传统汽车公司可能会面临倒闭。 Tesla、 Apple、及Google 的革命性软体,将会用在每一部汽车上。据悉,Volkswagen和Audi 的工程师非常担心Tesla革命性的电池和人工智能软体技术。

12. 房地产公司会遭遇极大的变化。因为你可以在车程中工作,距离将不是选住房屋的主要条件之一。市民会选择住在较远、但是较空旷且环境优美的乡村。

13. 电动汽车很安静,会在2020变成主流。所以城市会很变成安静,而且空气干净。

14. 太阳能在过去30年也有快速的进展。去年,全球太阳能的增产超过石油的增产。

预计,到2025年时,太阳能的价格(低廉)会使煤矿业大量的破产。因为电费非常的便宜,净化水及海水淡化的费用大减,人类将能解决人口增加的需水问题。

15. 健保:今年医疗设备商会供应如同「星球大战」电影中的Tricorder,让你的手机做眼睛的扫瞄,呼吸气体及血液的化学检验:用54个「生物指标」,就可检验出你是否有任何疾病的征兆。因为费用低,几年后,全球人类都可以有世界级的疾病预防服务。

16. 立体列印(3D printing):预计10 年内,3D列印设备会由近20000美元减到400美元,而速度增加100倍快。所有的「个人化」设计鞋子,将开始用这种设备生产,其他如大型的机场,其零件也能使用这种设备供应,至于人类太空船,也会使用这种设备。

17. 今年底,你的手机就会有3D扫瞄的功能,你可以测量你的脚送去做「个人化」鞋子。据悉,在中国,他们已经用这种设备制造了一栋6层楼办公室,预计到2027年时, 10% 的产品会用3D的列印设备制造。

18. 产业机会:

a. 工作:20年内,70-80% 的工作会消失,即使有很多新的工作机会,但是不足以弥补被智能机械所取代的原有工作。

b. 农业:将有 机械人耕作,不必吃饭、不用住宅、及支付薪水,只要便宜的电池即可。在开发国家的农夫,将变成机械人的经理。温室建筑物可以有少量的水。到2018年,肉可以从实验室生产,不必养猪、鸡或牛。30%用在畜牧的土地,会变成其他用途的土地。很多初创公司会供给高蛋白质的昆虫当成食品。

c. 到2020年时,你的手机会从你的表情看出,与你说话的人是不是说「假话」?是否骗人的?

d. 数位时代的钱,将是Bitcoin ,是在智能电脑中的「数据」。

e. 教育:最便宜的智能手机在非州是$10美元一只。

f. 到2020年时,全球70%的人类会有自己的手机,所以能够上网接受世界级的教育,但大部份的老师会被智能电脑取代。所有的「小学生」都要会写Code,你如果不会,你就是像住在Amazon森林中的原住民,无法在社会上做什么。你的国家,你的孩子准备好了吗?

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阅读 ()评论 (16)
评论
zhu286 回复 悄悄话 回复 'dq51' 的评论 : 10%的专业律师就够了。
dq51 回复 悄悄话 4. 在美国,使用IBM 的Watson电脑软体,你能够在几秒内,就有90%的准确性的法律顾问,比较起只有70%准确性的人为律师,既便捷又便宜。

所以,你如果还有家人亲友在读大学的法律系,建议他们停学省钱,因为市场已大幅的缩减了,未来的世界,只需要现在10%的专业律师就够了。
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上法庭时怎么用?
常量1 回复 悄悄话 基本扯淡。你忘记了最重要的一点,人是要活在这个世界上的。不管你有多笨,多穷,多无能无力无为,,,,
跟你这些高大上的未来精英比起来,这些笨穷无一族是99%的大多数人类。如何解决好他们的生存,娱乐,个人满足问题才是政府面临的最大问题。你不可能把所有人都变成聪明的精英,开电动车,用比特币。
dqdeer 回复 悄悄话 没有那样快,西方的“民主”社会,不会允许这样的事情那样快发生。
百家言一 回复 悄悄话 厉害啊,我地球
梅华书香 回复 悄悄话 厉害啊!
清漪园 回复 悄悄话 2020?
silverbug 回复 悄悄话 人会不会退化? 有点不可思议。
zhu286 回复 悄悄话 回复 'Alabama' 的评论 : A老,现在都是智能化,是世界发展趋势。医生的一些功能将被AI doctor代替, 所以医生必须懂AI技术。
路边的蒲公英 回复 悄悄话 海外华人回国,会越来越不便利了,后果很严重。
Alabama 回复 悄悄话 未来世界, 想想很可怕! 我们这辈人, 只有淘汰!
SCNC 回复 悄悄话 DdDD is down to 10 dollars a share from 100.
菲儿天地 回复 悄悄话 谢谢!
zhu286 回复 悄悄话 回复 '菲儿天地' 的评论 : 给孩子看的英文版:
zhu286 回复 悄悄话 The incredible world 10 years later (2019-03-11 04:16:27)
After 5-10 years, medical health insurance, self-driving cars, education, and service industries will all face the crisis of being eliminated!
1. Uber is a software company that does not own a car, but allows you to have a car on the go. Now it is the world's largest Taxi company.

2. Airbnb is also a software company that does not own any hotels, but its software allows you to live in rooms that are willing to rent around the world. Now it is the largest hotel industry in the world.

3. In May 2016, Google's computer defeated the world's most powerful South Korean Go player, because it developed a computer with artificial intelligence (AI) and used software that can "learn by itself", so its AI can accelerate the progress. Achieve 10 years ahead of what the experts originally expected.

4. In the United States, using IBM's Watson PC software, you can have 90% accurate legal counsel in a matter of seconds, compared to a lawyer who is only 70% accurate, both convenient and cheap.

Therefore, if you have family and friends in the law department of the university, they are advised to stop school and save money, because the market has been greatly reduced. In the future world, only 10% of professional lawyers are enough.

5. Watson has also been able to help patients with cancer, and is four times more accurate than doctors.

6. Facebook also has a set of AI software that can more accurately detect (recognize) faces than humans, and is ubiquitous.

7. By 2030, AI's computers will be smarter than any expert or scholar in the world.

8. Starting in 2017, cars that drive automatically can be used in public places. About 2020, the entire automotive industry will encounter a comprehensive change, you no longer need to use cars. You can use your mobile phone to call a self-driving car to take you to the destination you want to go.

9. In the future world, you no longer have to own a car, or spend time refueling, parking, queuing to test driving licenses, paying insurance premiums, especially in the city, it will be quiet, walking is safe, because 90% of cars are gone The previous parking lot will become a park.

10. There is now a car accident every 100,000 km, resulting in the death of approximately 1.2 million people worldwide each year. In the future, there will be an auto-driving car controlled by AI computers, with an average of 10 million kilometers per car accident, reducing about one million deaths. Because insurance premiums and people who need insurance are few, insurance companies face more challenges.

11. Most traditional car companies may face bankruptcy. Tesla, Apple, and Google's revolutionary software will be used in every car. It is reported that Volkswagen and Audi engineers are very worried about Tesla's revolutionary battery and artificial intelligence software technology.

12. Real estate companies will experience tremendous changes. Because you can work in a car, the distance will not be one of the main conditions for choosing a house. The public will choose to live in a village that is far away but is relatively empty and has a beautiful environment.

13. Electric cars are quiet and will become mainstream in 2020. So the city will become quiet and the air is clean.

14. Solar energy has also made rapid progress in the past 30 years. Last year, the increase in global solar energy exceeded the increase in oil production.

It is expected that by 2025, the price of solar energy (low) will cause a lot of bankruptcy in the coal industry. Because the electricity bill is very cheap, the cost of purifying water and seawater desalination is greatly reduced, and human beings will be able to solve the problem of increased water demand.

15. Health Insurance: This year, the Medical Equipment Chamber of Commerce will supply Tricorder in the "Star Wars" movie, let your mobile phone do eye scans, chemical tests of breathing gas and blood: use 54 "biological indicators" to test you Are there any signs of illness? Because of the low cost, a few years later, people around the world can have world-class disease prevention services.

16. 3D printing: It is expected that in 10 years, 3D printing equipment will be reduced from nearly 20,000 US dollars to 400 US dollars, and the speed will increase 100 times faster. All "personalized" design shoes will begin to be produced with this type of equipment. Others, such as large airports, can also be supplied with parts, as well as human spacecraft.

17. At the end of this year, your phone will have a 3D scan function. You can measure your feet and send them to "personalized" shoes. It is reported that in China, they have used this equipment to build a six-story office. It is estimated that by 2027, 10% of the products will be manufactured using 3D printing equipment.

18. Industry Opportunities:

a. Work: In 20 years, 70-80% of work will disappear. Even if there are many new job opportunities, it is not enough to make up for the original work replaced by intelligent machinery.

b. Agriculture: There will be robotic farming, no need to eat, no house, and pay, just a cheap battery. The farmer in the developing country will become the manager of the robot. Greenhouse buildings can have a small amount of water. By 2018, meat can be produced in the laboratory without having to raise pigs, chicken or cattle. 30% of the land used for livestock will become land for other uses. Many start-up companies supply high-protein insects as food.

c. By 2020, your mobile phone will see from your expression, is the person talking to you saying "false"? Is it lie?

d. The money of the digital age will be Bitcoin, the "data" in smart computers.

e. Education: The cheapest smartphone is $10 in a non-state.

f. By 2020, 70% of the world's human beings will have their own mobile phones, so they can access the world-class education online, but most of the teachers will be replaced by smart computers. All "primary school students" will write Code. If you don't, you are like an aboriginal living in the Amazon forest and can't do anything in society. Is your child ready in your country?
菲儿天地 回复 悄悄话 嗯,未来的世界很挑战。。。
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