风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
德国从令世界羡慕的国家变成了表现最差的主要发达经济体。 发生了什么？
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/once-global-ideal-germanys-economy-062845919.html
大卫·麦克休 2023 年 9 月 19 日
德国埃森（美联社）——在本世纪的大部分时间里，德国取得了一个又一个的经济成功，主导了豪华汽车和工业机械等高端产品的全球市场，向世界其他地区销售了大量产品，占经济总量的一半 依靠出口。
就业机会充足，随着其他欧洲国家陷入债务困境，政府的财政收入也随之增长，有关其他国家可以向德国学习的书籍也层出不穷。
不再。 现在，德国是全球表现最差的主要发达经济体，国际货币基金组织和欧盟都预计德国今年将萎缩。
此前，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰并失去莫斯科廉价天然气，这对长期以来欧洲制造业强国德国的能源密集型产业造成了前所未有的冲击。
欧洲最大经济体的突然表现不佳引发了一波批评、绝望和关于未来发展方向的争论。
德国大型化学公司赢创工业公司首席执行官克里斯蒂安·库尔曼表示，德国面临着“去工业化”的风险，因为高能源成本和政府对其他长期问题的不作为可能会将新工厂和高薪工作岗位转移到其他地方。
库尔曼在位于德国西部小镇埃森 21 层的办公室里指出了历史悠久的鲁尔河谷工业区早期成功的象征：金属工厂的烟囱、现已关闭的煤矿产生的巨大废物堆、大量的 BP 石油。 炼油厂和赢创庞大的化学生产设施。
如今，这个曾经的矿区已成为能源转型的象征，这里的煤尘曾经使悬挂的衣物变黑，点缀着风力涡轮机和绿地。
库尔曼告诉美联社，工厂供电所需的廉价俄罗斯天然气的损失“痛苦地损害了德国经济的商业模式”。 “我们正处于受到外部因素强烈影响和损害的境地。”
俄罗斯切断了对欧盟的大部分天然气供应，引发了这个 27 个国家集团的能源危机，而该集团的 40% 燃料都来自莫斯科。德国政府要求赢创继续其 1960 年代的燃煤电厂继续运行。 又长了几个月。
该公司正在从该工厂（其 40 层烟囱为塑料和其他产品的生产提供燃料）转向两台燃气发电机，这些发电机随后可以使用氢气运行，计划到 2030 年实现碳中和。
一个备受争议的解决方案是：由政府资助设定工业电价上限，以推动经济实现可再生能源转型。
绿党副总理罗伯特·哈贝克的提议遭到了社会民主党总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨和亲商联盟伙伴自由民主党的抵制。 环保人士表示，这只会延长对化石燃料的依赖。
库尔曼对此表示赞同：“主要是错误的政治决策导致并影响了这些高能源成本。 现在不能让德国工业、德国工人来承担这笔费用。”
天然气价格大约是 2021 年的两倍，这对需要天然气每天 24 小时保持玻璃或金属炽热和熔化以制造用于建筑物和汽车的玻璃、纸张和金属涂层的公司造成了损害。
第二次打击是，主要贸易伙伴中国在经历了几十年的强劲经济增长后经历了经济放缓。
这些外部冲击暴露了德国基础上的裂缝，这些裂缝在多年的成功中被忽视，包括政府和企业数字技术的滞后使用，以及急需的可再生能源项目批准的漫长过程。
其他初步认识：政府手头上手头有钱的部分原因是对农村地区公路、铁路网和高速互联网投资的延迟。 由于担心电价和电力短缺，2011年关闭德国剩余核电站的决定受到质疑。 企业面临熟练劳动力的严重短缺，职位空缺数量创历史新高，接近 200 万个。
依靠俄罗斯通过波罗的海下的北溪管道可靠地供应天然气——该管道由前总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)建造，但在战争期间被关闭和损坏——政府后来承认这是一个错误。
现在，清洁能源项目因广泛的官僚主义和非我后院的阻力而放缓。 在巴伐利亚南部地区，距住宅的间距限制使得每年风力涡轮机的建设量保持在个位数。
一条耗资 100 亿欧元（106.8 亿美元）的电力线路将风能从微风徐徐的北方输送到南方的工业界，但因政治阻力和难看的地上塔而面临代价高昂的延误。
埋藏该线路意味着2028年而不是2022年竣工。
拜登政府向在美国投资的企业提供巨额清洁能源补贴，引发了人们对德国落后的嫉妒和警惕。
库尔曼说：“我们看到各国政府在全球范围内争夺最具吸引力的未来技术——有吸引力意味着最有利可图、能够促进增长的技术。”
他引用了赢创决定在印第安纳州拉斐特建造一座耗资 2.2 亿美元的脂质生产设施的决定，脂质是 COVID-19 疫苗的关键成分。 他说，在德国官员表现出兴趣不大之后，美国的快速批准和高达 1.5 亿美元的补贴发挥了作用。
“我希望在布鲁塞尔和柏林看到更多一点实用主义，”库尔曼说。
与此同时，能源密集型企业正在寻求应对价格冲击。
Drewsen Spezialpapiere 生产护照纸、邮票纸以及不会给软饮料消泡的纸吸管，该公司在其位于德国北部的工厂附近购买了三台风力涡轮机，以满足其外部电力需求的约四分之一，因为该公司逐渐远离自然电力 气体。
特种玻璃公司 Schott AG 生产的产品范围从炉灶到疫苗瓶，再到智利极大望远镜天文台的 39 米（128 英尺）镜子，该公司已在工厂尝试用无排放的氢气替代天然气。 它在温度高达 1,700 摄氏度的罐中生产玻璃。
它起作用了——但只是小规模，由卡车提供氢气。 需要用可再生电力生产并通过管道输送大量氢气，但目前还不存在。
肖尔茨呼吁能源转型采取“德国节奏”，与在几个月内建立四个浮动天然气终端以取代俄罗斯天然气流失的紧迫性相同。 从美国、卡塔尔和其他地方通过船运到码头的液化天然气比俄罗斯管道供应的液化天然气贵得多，但这一努力表明德国在必要时可以采取行动。
然而，联合政府之间围绕能源价格上限和禁止新建煤气炉的法律的争论激怒了商界领袖。
赢创的库尔曼驳回了最近的一揽子政府提案，其中包括投资税收减免和旨在减少官僚主义的法律，称其为“创可贴”。
贝伦贝格银行首席经济学家霍尔格·施米丁表示，德国在 2010 年至 2020 年经济增长的“黄金十年”中变得自满，其基础是德国总理格哈德·施罗德在 2003 年至 2005 年实施的改革，降低了劳动力成本并提高了竞争力。
“对德国潜在实力的认知也可能导致了退出核能、禁止天然气水力压裂以及押注俄罗斯充足天然气供应等错误决定，”他说。 “德国正在为其能源政策付出代价。”
施米丁曾在 1998 年的一份颇具影响力的分析中将德国称为“欧洲病夫”，他认为，考虑到德国的低失业率和强劲的政府财政，这个标签在今天看来有些过头了。 这给了德国采取行动的空间，但也减轻了做出改变的压力。
施米丁表示，最重要的直接步骤是通过价格上限来结束能源价格的不确定性，不仅帮助大公司，也帮助小公司。
无论选择什么政策，“如果政府能够迅速就这些政策达成一致，这样企业就知道自己在做什么，并能够做出相应的计划，而不是推迟投资决策，这将是一个很大的帮助，”他说。
Germany went from envy of the world to the worst-performing major developed economy. What happened?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/once-global-ideal-germanys-economy-062845919.html
DAVID McHUGH
Jobs were plentiful, the government's financial coffers grew as other European countries drowned in debt, and books were written about what other countries could learn from Germany.
No longer. Now, Germany is the world’s worst-performing major developed economy, with both the International Monetary Fund and European Union expecting it to shrink this year.
It follows Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the loss of Moscow's cheap natural gas — an unprecedented shock to Germany’s energy-intensive industries, long the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe.
The sudden underperformance by Europe's largest economy has set off a wave of criticism, handwringing and debate about the way forward.
Germany risks “deindustrialization” as high energy costs and government inaction on other chronic problems threaten to send new factories and high-paying jobs elsewhere, said Christian Kullmann, CEO of major German chemical company Evonik Industries AG.
From his 21st-floor office in the west German town of Essen, Kullmann points out the symbols of earlier success across the historic Ruhr Valley industrial region: smokestacks from metal plants, giant heaps of waste from now-shuttered coal mines, a massive BP oil refinery and Evonik's sprawling chemical production facility.
These days, the former mining region, where coal dust once blackened hanging laundry, is a symbol of the energy transition, dotted with wind turbines and green space.
The loss of cheap Russian natural gas needed to power factories “painfully damaged the business model of the German economy,” Kullmann told The Associated Press. “We’re in a situation where we’re being strongly affected — damaged — by external factors.”
After Russia cut off most of its gas to the European Union, spurring an energy crisis in the 27-nation bloc that had sourced 40% of the fuel from Moscow, the German government asked Evonik to keep its 1960s coal-fired power plant running a few months longer.
The company is shifting away from the plant — whose 40-story smokestack fuels production of plastics and other goods — to two gas-fired generators that can later run on hydrogen amid plans to become carbon neutral by 2030.
One hotly debated solution: a government-funded cap on industrial electricity prices to get the economy through the renewable energy transition.
The proposal from Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Greens Party has faced resistance from Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, and pro-business coalition partner the Free Democrats. Environmentalists say it would only prolong reliance on fossil fuels.
Kullmann is for it: “It was mistaken political decisions that primarily developed and influenced these high energy costs. And it can’t now be that German industry, German workers should be stuck with the bill.”
The price of gas is roughly double what it was in 2021, hurting companies that need it to keep glass or metal red-hot and molten 24 hours a day to make glass, paper and metal coatings used in buildings and cars.
A second blow came as key trade partner China experiences a slowdown after several decades of strong economic growth.
These outside shocks have exposed cracks in Germany's foundation that were ignored during years of success, including lagging use of digital technology in government and business and a lengthy process to get badly needed renewable energy projects approved.
Other dawning realizations: The money that the government readily had on hand came in part because of delays in investing in roads, the rail network and high-speed internet in rural areas. A 2011 decision to shut down Germany's remaining nuclear power plants has been questioned amid worries about electricity prices and shortages. Companies face a severe shortage of skilled labor, with job openings hitting a record of just under 2 million.
And relying on Russia to reliably supply gas through the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea — built under former Chancellor Angela Merkel and since shut off and damaged amid the war — was belatedly conceded by the government to have been a mistake.
Now, clean energy projects are slowed by extensive bureaucracy and not-in-my-backyard resistance. Spacing limits from homes keep annual construction of wind turbines in single digits in the southern Bavarian region.
A 10 billion-euro ($10.68 billion) electrical line bringing wind power from the breezier north to industry in the south has faced costly delays from political resistance to unsightly above-ground towers. Burying the line means completion in 2028 instead of 2022.
Massive clean energy subsidies that the Biden administration is offering to companies investing in the U.S. have evoked envy and alarm that Germany is being left behind.
“We’re seeing a worldwide competition by national governments for the most attractive future technologies — attractive meaning the most profitable, the ones that strengthen growth,” Kullmann said.
He cited Evonik’s decision to build a $220 million production facility for lipids — key ingredients in COVID-19 vaccines — in Lafayette, Indiana. Rapid approvals and up to $150 million in U.S. subsidies made a difference after German officials evinced little interest, he said.
“I'd like to see a little more of that pragmatism ... in Brussels and Berlin,” Kullmann said.
In the meantime, energy-intensive companies are looking to cope with the price shock.
Drewsen Spezialpapiere, which makes passport and stamp paper as well as paper straws that don't de-fizz soft drinks, bought three wind turbines near its mill in northern Germany to cover about a quarter of its external electricity demand as it moves away from natural gas.
Specialty glass company Schott AG, which makes products ranging from stovetops to vaccine bottles to the 39-meter (128-foot) mirror for the Extremely Large Telescope astronomical observatory in Chile, has experimented with substituting emissions-free hydrogen for gas at the plant where it produces glass in tanks as hot as 1,700 degrees Celsius.
It worked — but only on a small scale, with hydrogen supplied by truck. Mass quantities of hydrogen produced with renewable electricity and delivered by pipeline would be needed and don't exist yet.
Scholz has called for the energy transition to take on the “Germany tempo,” the same urgency used to set up four floating natural gas terminals in months to replace lost Russian gas. The liquefied natural gas that comes to the terminals by ship from the U.S., Qatar and elsewhere is much more expensive than Russian pipeline supplies, but the effort showed what Germany can do when it has to.
However, squabbling among the coalition government over the energy price cap and a law barring new gas furnaces has exasperated business leaders.
Evonik's Kullmann dismissed a recent package of government proposals, including tax breaks for investment and a law aimed at reducing bureaucracy, as “a Band-Aid.”
Germany grew complacent during a “golden decade” of economic growth in 2010-2020 based on reforms under Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in 2003-2005 that lowered labor costs and increased competitiveness, says Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank.
“The perception of Germany's underlying strength may also have contributed to the misguided decisions to exit nuclear energy, ban fracking for natural gas and bet on ample natural gas supplies from Russia,” he said. “Germany is paying the price for its energy policies.”
Schmieding, who once dubbed Germany “the sick man of Europe” in an influential 1998 analysis, thinks that label would be overdone today, considering its low unemployment and strong government finances. That gives Germany room to act — but also lowers the pressure to make changes.
The most important immediate step, Schmieding said, would be to end uncertainty over energy prices, through a price cap to help not just large companies, but smaller ones as well.
Whatever policies are chosen, “it would already be a great help if the government could agree on them fast so that companies know what they are up to and can plan accordingly instead of delaying investment decisions," he said.
