杨荣文 中国必须做好与美国长期斗争的准备

中国必须做好与美国长期斗争的准备

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1300824.shtml

作者：环球时报发布时间：2023 年 10 月 30 日

编者注：

随着APEC领导人会议在即，中美高层互动增多，释放出美方希望对华关系稳定甚至改善的信号。 新加坡前外交部长杨荣文在近期接受环球时报记者李爱新、白云逸专访时对《环球时报》记者表示，即使出现新的气球事件，双边关系也不会再次偏离正轨。 北京巡演。 杨还强调，中国必须做好与美国长期斗争的准备。 这是因为，至少目前，美国不信任中国。 但中国如何做好准备呢？ “中国知道该怎么做，”杨说。

环球时报：随着中美高层交往的增多，以及APEC会议的召开，您认为近期中美关系是否会发生变化？

杨：短期内，我认为美国希望与中国的双边关系稳定，甚至可能有所改善。 人们预计习近平主席将在旧金山会见乔·拜登总统，因为已经做了很多准备工作。

一年前，他们在印度尼西亚巴厘岛进行了一次很好的会面，持续了三个多小时。 不幸的是，达成的共识因气球事件而脱轨。 气球事件可能破坏一项广泛的协议，这一事实表明它是多么脆弱。 我相信，对于这次会议，我们已经做了更多的准备。 因此，即使发生新的气球事件，双边关系也不会偏离正轨，因为双方现在的互动更加深入。

关键是，美国短期内不希望双边关系恶化。 部分原因是美国方面乌克兰战争没有取得太大进展。 还有人担心经济严重下滑，美国需要与中国合作。 如果没有开放的渠道，一旦发生危机，可能就没有时间就如何从概念上应对经济挑战达成共识。

我认为这是美国想在一定程度上改善对华关系的两个主要原因。

GT：从长远角度来看，您认为两国关系将走向何方？

杨洁篪：从长远来看，中美关系仍将紧张、困难。 两者之间的较量还会持续一段时间，因为中国很有可能成为世界第一大经济体。 美国感觉自己的世界主导地位受到中国的威胁，美国人很难接受这一点。 他们甚至担心中国想要取代或取代美国成为世界第一。 中国一再表示没有这样的野心，但美国不太相信中国。 美国认为，一旦中国经济强大了，它就会想重蹈西方列强强大时的覆辙。 在这一点上，我认为他们对中国历史和中华文明还不够了解。

中国必须要有耐心。 在形成更稳定的立场之前，双方必须经过一段时间的相互考验。 中国必须做好与美国长期斗争的准备。 美国政治也经历周期性变化。 一直都有选举。 反华情绪很容易激化，给所有候选人施加压力，要求他们采取某些立场。

GT：对于中国如何与不愿相信中国的美国进行沟通和互动，您有什么建议吗？

杨：我不应该给中国提供建议。 中国知道该怎么做。 中国不会让（紧张局势）升级。 但与此同时，它也不希望自己的反应被误认为是软弱。 它必须表现出坚定性。 与此同时，中国必须能够向中国人民解释自己的立场，他们也在评判自己的政府，希望自己的政府强大而不是弱小。 这是必须达到的平衡。

GT：您一直在讨论即将到来的多极世界。 您认为中美在未来的世界中可以扮演什么角色？
杨：世界正在走向多极化。 美国之所以抵制，是因为它习惯于在世界上占据主导地位和卓越地位。 现在使我们能够自由交流、旅行和贸易的许多制度都是由美国在二战后塑造的。 美国发现其中一些机构不再按照其国家利益行事。 结果，我们看到美国将其中一些机构武器化，并将长期确立的做法武器化。 我想说的是，美国现在处于防御地位。 感觉必须保护自己的利益。
中国应该对世贸组织等机构的改革采取建设性态度，让美国变得更重要

我仍然觉得在他们内部工作而不是在他们之外工作会有所收获。

环球时报：香山论坛正在北京举行，讨论安全合作。 您如何看待中国的全球安全愿景及其对地区冲突的应对？

杨：对于中美两国的国防机构和两支军队来说，能够相互沟通以避免发生意外非常重要。

不出所料，中国对遥远冲突的反应一直是谨慎的。

中国在俄罗斯和乌克兰之间进行了非常仔细的三角衡量。 它不希望俄罗斯崩溃，因为这不符合中国的利益。 与此同时，它不想提供武器，因为那是选边站队。 中国一直在告诉各方：我不想卷入你们的战争，但有一天需要重建时，我们会提供帮助。 中国是俄乌冲突的和平缔造者，而不是麻烦制造者。

以巴冲突也是如此。 中方对哈马斯的所作所为表示明确谴责，但对巴勒斯坦人民几十年来遭受的不公正现象表示同情。 同时也在告诉以色列，中国不是对手。 这是中国常驻联合国代表最近针对以色列的批评作出的回应。 他说，把中国视为对手是错误的。 中方一贯主张两国方案，同等重视以色列和巴勒斯坦双方的安全关切和合法权利。

中国一直非常小心，避免不必要地选边站队，并尽可能谨慎地进行三角测量。 我们不应该火上浇油。 我们应该成为和平缔造者，而不是麻烦制造者。

然而，你必须预料到，当采取平衡立场时，双方一开始可能会对你不满意，因为双方都希望你站在自己一边。 但随着时间的推移，当主角们因战争、暴力而疲惫不堪时，他们就会欣赏中国的温和立场。

GT：您如何看待美国的反应？

杨：美国陷入了困境。 它与以色列有着长期的关系。 以色列也已成为美国国内政治的一部分。 选举即将到来，因此美国的立场部分取决于选举因素。

环球时报：近来，中菲之间的紧张局势不断加剧。 一些观察人士认为，美国正在煽动菲律宾引发亚洲代理人战争。 您如何看待南海成为下一个爆发点的可能性？

杨洁篪：目前仁爱礁（菲律宾人称之为仁爱礁）的紧张局势是菲律宾几年前在中国控制的环礁上搁浅一艘载着少量船员的旧船造成的。 这就是当前紧张局势的原因。 中国不想强行拆除这艘船。 船体正在生锈并破裂。 那里的船员需要食物和水。 中国允许提供食物和水，但不允许修复这艘船，希望它能够解体，问题会自行解决。

我希望这种紧张局势不会失控。 这是一件小事，不应该让它变成大事。 不出所料，美国支持菲律宾。 我只希望美国的支持不会鼓励菲律宾承担不必要的风险，因为那样中国将被迫做出反应。 至关重要的是，中国和菲律宾必须在政治层面上进行会晤并进行对话，并妥善处理问题。

GT：一些观察家表示，随着世界范围内冲突的加剧，美国的实力可能会过度扩张。 您认为俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突、以色列与巴勒斯坦冲突会增加还是减少台海爆发冲突的风险？

杨：巴勒斯坦发生的事情将国际关注的焦点从乌克兰转移到了中东。 这对乌克兰不利，因为乌克兰无法独自维持这场战争。 它需要西方的帮助。

乌克兰战争和巴勒斯坦问题都分散了人们对台海的注意力，因为每个领导人的资源都是有限的，紧张的精力也只有这么多。

将时间和精力投入到两个危机领域已经够困难的了。 美中关系略有好转，有利于缓解台海紧张局势。

GT：您认为其他国家可以采取哪些措施来缓解中美之间的紧张关系？

杨：欧洲可以发挥非常重要的作用。 如果中国表现过度，欧洲就应该向美国倾斜一点。 这将限制中国。 同样，如果美国的行为不合理，欧洲也应该与美国保持一定的距离，从而克制其行为。 欧洲可以在维护世界和平与稳定方面发挥关键的平衡作用。

当我们自己的利益没有受到直接影响时，东盟拒绝选边站队，因为我们认为选边站队没有任何好处

es. 东盟希望对所有大国保持中立和友好，不仅对中国和美国，而且对印度、欧洲、日本和其他国家。 如果任何大国试图欺凌东盟，我们就会转向其他方向。 这将阻止欺凌行为。 这一直是东盟的战略，即在大国之间动态平衡、对各方都有利。

于是，王道涵（时任大陆海峡两岸关系协会会长）和辜振甫（时任台湾海峡交流基金会理事长）在新加坡首次会面。 习主席与台湾岛前领导人马英九的会谈也在新加坡举行。 几年前，时任美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在新加坡会见了朝鲜领导人金正恩，随后又在河内会面。

许多国家定期参加东盟地区论坛。 每个人都坐在东盟谈判桌旁。 东盟对每个人都很友好，每个人都在东盟感到舒适和受欢迎。 这就是去年G20巴厘岛峰会如此成功的原因。

GT：新加坡会发挥更积极的调解作用吗？

杨：新加坡的角色非常一致。 我们是和平缔造者，我们绝不是麻烦制造者。 我们希望大国进行对话、妥协，因为这将有助于和平，也符合我们自己的利益。 我们不会从大国冲突中获得任何好处。

事实上，如果我们的朋友互相争吵，我们会感到非常不舒服。 我们鼓励他们在东盟访问时保持礼貌和通情达理。

环球时报：当前，中国也面临着经济增速放缓等挑战。 您对中国国内政治经济形势有何看法？

杨：我认为中国目前的经济放缓不是很严重。 该国仍在适应新冠疫情的结束。 政府认为房地产行业过度投资的方式并不健康。 太多人购买房屋和公寓作为一种赚钱的单向赌注。 这导致经济资源过度配置到房地产。 通过阻止它，政府必须注意系统性影响，因为房地产存在于每家公司的资产负债表上。

中国也有失业问题，但是中国有很多政策、灵活性。 新冠疫情期间，中国不必印钞。 事实上，其他国家印的钱有很大一部分是中国收的。 在财政上，中国政府处于强势地位。 与其他主要经济体相比，中国的利率仍呈下降趋势，这意味着政府有很大的财政空间来应对经济下滑。 因此我对中国经济持谨慎乐观的态度。 这对整个世界都有好处。

China must be prepared for protracted struggle with the US

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1300824.shtml

By Global TimesPublished: Oct 30, 2023

 

 

Editor's Note: 

With the APEC leaders' meeting just around the corner, increasing high-level interactions between China and the US signal that the US wants its relations with China to stabilize and even improve. Even if there's a new balloon incident, bilateral ties will not be blown off course again, George Yeo (Yeo), former Singaporean minister of foreign affairs, told Global Times (GT) reporters Li Aixin and Bai Yunyi in an exclusive interview during his recent tour in Beijing. Yeo also stressed that China must be prepared for a period of protracted struggle with the US. This is because, at least for now, the US does not trust China. But how does China get prepared? "China knows what to do," Yeo said.


GT: With the increasing high-level interactions between China and the US, as well as the upcoming APEC meeting, do you think there may be changes in China-US relations in the near future? 

Yeo: In the short term, I believe the US wants bilateral relations with China to stabilize, perhaps even to improve a little bit. There's an expectation that President Xi Jinping will meet President Joe Biden in San Francisco, because a lot of preparatory work has been done.

They had a good meeting in Bali, Indonesia, one year ago, which lasted over three hours. Unfortunately, the consensus reached was derailed by the balloon incident. The fact that the balloon incident could derail a broad agreement shows how fragile it was. I believe for this coming meeting, much more preparations have already been made. So even if there's a new balloon incident, bilateral ties will not be blown off course because both sides have interacted with one another much more deeply now. 

The point is, the US, in the short term, doesn't want bilateral relations to get worse. This is partly because the war in Ukraine is not making much progress from the US side. There is also concern about a serious economic downturn, and the US needs to cooperate with China. Without open channels, if a crisis arises, there may be no time to reach a mutual understanding on how to conceptually address economic challenges. 

I think these are the two main reasons why the US wants to improve its relations with China to a certain degree.


GT: From a long-term perspective, where do you think the relationship is headed?

Yeo: In the longer term, China-US relations will remain tense and difficult. This trial of strength between the two will continue for a while, because China is very likely to become the world's largest economy. The US feels that its dominance in the world is threatened by China, and it's hard for Americans to accept this. They even fear that China will want to replace or displace the US as No.1 in the world. China said repeatedly that it has no such ambition, but the US doesn't quite believe China. The US thinks that once China becomes economically strong and powerful, it will want to do what the Western powers did when they became strong and powerful. In this, I believe they don't understand Chinese history and Chinese civilization enough.

China has to be patient. There has to be a period of time where both sides test each other before a more stable position crystallizes. China must be prepared for a period of protracted struggle with the US. US politics also goes through periodic changes. There are elections all the time. It's easy for emotions against China to become inflamed, putting pressure on all candidates to take certain positions. 


GT: Do you have any advice on how China could communicate and interact with a US that does not want to believe China?

Yeo: It's not for me to give advice to China. China knows what to do. China will not escalate (tension). But at the same time, it does not want its reaction to be mistaken as weakness. It has to show firmness. At the same time, China must be able to explain its position to the Chinese people who are also judging their own government and wanting their own government to be strong and not weak. This is the balance that has to be struck. 


GT: You have been discussing the coming multipolar world. What roles do you think China and the US can play in this future world? 

Yeo: The world is becoming multipolar. The US resists it because it's used to being dominant and preeminent in the world. Many of the institutions that now enable us to communicate, travel and trade freely were shaped by the US after WWII. The US is finding that some of these institutions are no longer acting in its national interest. As a result of, we see the US weaponizing some of these institutions, and weaponizing the long-established practices. I would say that the US is now in a defensive position. It feels that it's got to protect its own interests.

China should take a constructive attitude to the reform of institutions like the WTO and it's important to make the US continue to feel that it gains by working within them rather than working outside them. 
 

George Yeo Photo: Yu Jiayin/GT

GT: The Xiangshan Forum is being held in Beijing to discuss security cooperation. How do you view China's global security vision and its response to regional conflicts?

Yeo: It is important for Chinese and US' defense establishments and for the two armed forces to be able to communicate with one another in order to avoid accidents. 

China has been predictably cautious in its response to distant conflicts. 

Between Russia and Ukraine, China has triangulated very carefully. It doesn't want Russia to collapse, because that would not be in China's interests. At the same time, it doesn't want to supply weapons, because that's taking sides. China has been telling various parties: I don't want to be involved in your war, but one day when reconstruction is needed, we will be there to help. China is a peacemaker, not a troublemaker in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

It's the same with the Israel-Palestine conflict. China has taken a clear position condemning what Hamas has done but is sympathetic to the injustices suffered by the Palestinian people over decades. At the same time, it is telling Israel that China is not an opponent. That was what China's permanent representative in the UN said recently, in response to Israeli criticism. He said, it is wrong to treat China as an opponent. China has long upheld a two-state solution and pays equal importance to the security concerns and legitimate rights of both Israel and Palestine.

China has been very careful not to take sides unnecessarily and to triangulate as carefully as possible. We should not add fuel to the fire. We should be peacemakers, not troublemakers. 

However, you have to expect that when taking a balanced position, both sides may be unhappy with you at first, because each side wants you to be on its side. But over time, when the protagonists are exhausted by war, by violence, they will appreciate China's moderate position. 


GT: How do you view the US response? 

Yeo: The US is caught in a difficult position. It has a longstanding relationship with Israel. Israel has also become part of US domestic politics. Elections are coming up, so the US position is partly conditioned by electoral considerations. 


GT: Tensions between China and the Philippines have been on the rise lately. Some observers believe the US is inciting the Philippines to trigger an Asia proxy war. What's your take on the possibility of the South China Sea becoming the next flashpoint? 

Yeo: The current tension over Ren'ai Reef, or what the Filipinos call Second Thomas Shoal, is the result of the Philippines beaching an old ship with a small crew on an atoll which was controlled by China some years ago. This is the cause of the current tension. China doesn't want to remove the hulk forcefully. The hulk is rusting and breaking up. The crew there needs to be fed and provided with water. China is allowing food and water, but not allowing the hulk to be repaired, hoping that it will disintegrate and the problem will solve itself. 

I hope this tension will not get out of control. It is a small matter which should not be allowed to become big. The US predictably supports the Philippines. I only hope that US' support does not encourage the Philippines to take unnecessary risks, because China would then be forced to react. It's critical that at a political level, China and the Philippines meet and talk and keep the problem in proportion. 


GT: Some observers say the US power may be overstretched as conflicts worldwide intensify. Do you think the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel-Palestine conflict will increase or decrease the risk of a conflict erupting across the Taiwan Straits? 

Yeo: What has happened in Palestine has taken the international limelight away from Ukraine to the Middle East. This is to Ukraine's disadvantage, because Ukraine cannot sustain this war by itself. It needs Western help.

Both the Ukraine war and the problem of Palestine have taken away attention from the Taiwan Straits, because every leader has limited resources and only so much nervous energy.

It is difficult enough to devote time and energy to two crisis areas. The fact that US-China relations have taken a slight turn for the better will help reduce tension across the Taiwan Straits.


GT: What do you think other countries can do to ease the tensions between China and US? 

Yeo: Europe can play a very important role. If China behaves excessively, Europe should lean a little to the US. This will then restrain China. In the same way, if the US behaves in an unreasonable way, Europe should be a little away from the US and thus restrain its actions. Europe can play a critical balancing role to maintain peace and stability in the world. 

ASEAN refuses to take sides when our own interests are not directly affected, because we see no benefits in taking sides. ASEAN wants to remain neutral and friendly to all powers, not only to China and the US, but also to India, Europe, Japan and others. If any major power tries to bully ASEAN, we will shift in other directions. This will stop the bullying. This has always been ASEAN's strategy, which is to be dynamically balanced among the big powers and to be useful to all of them. 

So Wang Daohan, (then head of the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits), and Koo Chen-fu (then chairman of the Taiwan-based Straits Exchange Foundation) met for the first time in Singapore. The talk between President Xi and former Taiwan island leader Ma Ying-jeou was also held in Singapore. A few years ago, then US President Donald Trump met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore and after that in Hanoi.

Many countries meet regularly at the ASEAN regional forum. Everybody sits around the ASEAN table. ASEAN is friendly to everybody, and everybody feels comfortable and welcomed in ASEAN. That was why the G20 summit in Bali last year was so successful.


GT: Will Singapore play a more active role as mediator? 

Yeo: Singapore's role is very consistent. We are a peacemaker, we are never a troublemaker. We want the major powers to talk, to compromise, because this will conduce peace and is in our own interest. We derive no benefits from big power conflicts. 

In fact, we feel extremely uncomfortable if our friends are quarreling with one another. We encourage them to be courteous and reasonable when they visit us in ASEAN. 

GT: At present, China is also facing challenges like economic growth slowdown. What's your view on China's domestic political economic circumstances? 

Yeo: I don't think China's current economic slowdown is very serious. The country is still adjusting to the end of COVID. The government has decided that the way in which the real estate sector was over invested was not healthy. Too many people were buying houses and apartments as a one-way bet to make money. That resulted in excessive deployment of economic resources to real estate. By stopping it, the government has to be mindful of the systemic effects, because real estate is on every company's balance sheet. 

China also has an unemployment problem, but China has a lot of policy, flexibility. China did not have to print money during COVID. In fact, much of the money printed by other countries was collected by China. Financially, the Chinese government is in a strong position. In contrast to other major economies, interest rates in China are still trending down, which means that the government has a lot of fiscal room to address the economic downturn. I am therefore cautiously optimistic about the Chinese economy. That is good for the entire world.