乌克兰战争与欧亚世界秩序

乌克兰战争与欧亚世界秩序

https://www.amazon.com/Ukraine-War-Eurasian-World-Order/dp/1949762955?

作者：格伦·迪森 (作者) 2024 年 2 月 15 日

五百年的西方霸权时代已经结束，全球大多数人对建立在多极化和主权平等基础上的世界秩序的渴望日益高涨。 这本深刻的著作探讨了自由主义霸权的消亡，同时也指出多极威斯特伐利亚世界秩序尚未形成，世界正处于一个空位期。 法律真空已经出现，冲突双方竞相定义未来秩序。

北约扩张主义是自由主义霸权的重要组成部分，因为它旨在巩固西方的集体霸权，作为自由民主和平的基础。 相反，它摧毁了泛欧洲安全架构，并使欧洲走上了战争之路，而且不可能纠正路线。 乌克兰作为分裂的欧洲中的一个分裂国家，过去三十年来一直是北约与俄罗斯大国竞争的重要棋子。

乌克兰战争是世界秩序崩溃的一个征兆。 这场战争暴露了自由主义霸权在权力和合法性方面的功能失调，并引发了西方和俄罗斯之间的代理战争，而不是确保其合法性的源泉和平。
代理人战争、史无前例的制裁以及在更广阔的世界中孤立俄罗斯的努力导致了自由主义霸权的灭亡，而不是其复兴。 世界许多国家通过加紧向拒绝霸权和自由普世主义的欧亚世界秩序过渡来应对这场战争。 随着世界摆脱对西方技术、工业、交通走廊、银行、支付系统、保险系统和货币的过度依赖，经济架构正在重组。 基于西方价值观的普遍主义被文明独特性所取代，主权不平等被主权平等所取代，劣等社会化被谈判所取代，基于规则的国际秩序被国际法所取代。 威斯特伐利亚世界秩序正在重新确立自己的地位，尽管它带有欧亚特征。

西方击败俄罗斯将恢复单极世界秩序，而俄罗斯的胜利将巩固多极世界秩序。 国际体系现在正处于最危险的时期，因为不存在妥协的前景，这意味着赢家将通吃。 因此，美国领导下的北约和俄罗斯都准备承担巨大风险并升级，使核武的可能性越来越大。

The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order 

https://www.amazon.com/Ukraine-War-Eurasian-World-Order/dp/1949762955

by Glenn Diesen (Author)  Feb 15, 2024

Five hundred years of Western hegemony has ended, while the global majority’s aspiration for a world order based on multipolarity and sovereign equality is rising. This incisive book addresses the demise of liberal hegemony, though pointing out that a multipolar Westphalian world order has not yet taken shape, leaving the world in a period of interregnum. A legal vacuum has emerged, in which the conflicting sides are competing to define the future order.

NATO expansionism was an important component of liberal hegemony as it was intended to cement the collective hegemony of the West as the foundation for a liberal democratic peace. Instead, it dismantled the pan-European security architecture and set Europe on the path to war without the possibility of a course correction. Ukraine as a divided country in a divided Europe has been a crucial pawn in the great power competition between NATO and Russia for the past three decades.

The war in Ukraine is a symptom of the collapsing world order. The war revealed the dysfunction of liberal hegemony in terms of both power and legitimacy, and it sparked a proxy war between the West and Russia instead of ensuring peace, the source of its legitimacy.
The proxy war, unprecedented sanctions, and efforts to isolate Russia in the wider world contributed to the demise of liberal hegemony as opposed to its revival. Much of the world responded to the war by intensifying their transition to a Eurasian world order that rejects hegemony and liberal universalism.

The economic architecture is being reorganised as the world diversifies away from excessive reliance on Western technologies, industries, transportation corridors, banks, payment systems, insurance systems, and currencies. Universalism based on Western values is replaced by civilisational distinctiveness, sovereign inequality is swapped with sovereign equality, socialising inferiors is replaced by negotiations, and the rules-based international order is discarded in favour of international law. A Westphalian world order is reasserting itself, although with Eurasian characteristics.

The West’s defeat of Russia would restore the unipolar world order while a Russian victory would cement a multipolar one. The international system is now at its most dangerous as the prospect of compromise is absent, meaning the winner will take all. Both NATO under US direction and Russia are therefore prepared to take great risks and escalate, making nuclear wan increasingly likely.